Phillies vs. Cardinals (July 11): Will Philly’s bats struggle to back Nola on the road again?

The first three games of the series between the Philadelphia Phillies and St. Louis Cardinals have featured just ten runs between the two teams. And with Aaron Nola and Miles Mikolas pitching in the series finale, we shouldn’t expect to see too many runs cross the plate in tonight’s matchup at Busch Stadium.

The Phillies shut out the Cardinals 2-0 and 1-0 in the first two games, and they were well on their way to wrapping up the series win yesterday. But after trailing 3-1 entering the bottom of the sixth, St. Louis scored single runs in the sixth, seventh, and eighth to rally for a 4-3 win.

If the Cardinals can get the win tonight, the Phillies will leave town without any distance between themselves and the Cardinals for the third NL wild-card spot, which would be a major disappointment after taking the first two games of the series.

Philadelphia Phillies vs. St. Louis Cardinals Matchup Information and Betting Odds

Matchup Information

• Matchup: Philadelphia Phillies vs. St. Louis Cardinals
• Venue & Location: Busch Stadium (St. Louis, Missouri)
• Date: Monday, July 11, 2022
• Game Time: 7:15 p.m. Eastern Time (6:15 p.m. local time)
• TV Broadcast/Streaming Info: NBC Sports Philadelphia (Phillies), Bally Sports Midwest (Cardinals), MLB Extra Innings/MLB.TV (subscription packages)

Phillies vs. Cardinals Pitching Matchup

• Philadelphia Phillies: Aaron Nola (2022: 17 starts, 5-6, 3.15 ERA)
• St. Louis Cardinals: Miles Mikolas (2022: 17 starts, 5-7, 2.72 ERA)

Phillies vs. Cardinals Odds

Game odds are via BetOnline. This article may also include odds from other top online sports betting sites that we have reviewed and recommend.

Moneyline

• Philadelphia Phillies -122
• St. Louis Cardinals +104

Over/Under

• OVER 8 (-105)
• UNDER 8 (-115)

Run Line

• Philadelphia Phillies -1.5 (+134)
• St. Louis Cardinals +1.5 (-162)

Which Luckless Pitcher Will Come Out on Top in St. Louis?

Given how well Nola and Mikolas have pitched in many of their starts this season, neither one should have a losing record. But that’s the way the cookie has crumbled for them to this point.

In his 17 starts, Nola has ten quality starts, and the Phillies are only 5-5 in those starts. Only two of his five wins have come in outings that were a quality start, while three of his six losses have come in an outing that was a quality start.

On the other side, Mikolas has 11 quality starts in his 17 starts, and the Cardinals are just 5-6 in those starts. Of his seven losses this season, five have come in an outing that was a quality start, while three of his wins have come in a start that was a quality start.

Poor Run Support Undermining Nola and Mikolas

Run support is certainly a major factor in why things have played out as they have for both pitchers.

In 11 of the games that Nola has started, the Phillies have scored four or fewer runs. Their record in those games? Three wins, eight losses. Their record in his other starts? Four wins, two losses.

In nine of the games Mikolas has started, the Cardinals have scored four or fewer runs. Their record in those games? One win, eight losses. Their record in his other starts? Eight wins, one loss.

The Phillies have scored four or fewer runs in seven of Nola’s eight road starts, which really shines a light on the fact that he is 2-4 on the road despite having a 2.13 ERA.

On the positive side for Mikolas, only three of the nine games in which he has received four or fewer runs of support have been at Busch Stadium. The Cardinals have lost all three of those games though, it must be noted.

Philadelphia Phillies vs. St. Louis Cardinals Prediction & Best Bets

Phillies vs. Cardinals Prediction: Cardinals to win

Phillies vs. Cardinals Best Bets: Cardinals ML (+105 at Bovada Sportsbook, MyBookie & BetMGM) & Phillies team total under 4 runs (-106 at BetOnline)

The Phillies are fifth in MLB in runs per game on the road, averaging 4.85 runs per game. So, they don’t have too many issues scoring when it’s not Nola on the mound.

They even have scored 37 runs in Zack Wheeler’s seven road starts, compared to just 25 in Nola’s eight road starts.

With that lack of luck in mind, and with run support–and winning–less of an issue for Mikolas at home than it is for Nola on the road, I love the value with the Cardinals here, especially if they continue to be available at plus odds.

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