Phillies vs. Nationals (June 16): Can Corbin win for the fourth time in five starts?

After winning back-to-back series at home against the Arizona Diamondbacks and Miami Marlins, the Philadelphia Phillies visit the Washington Nationals for a five-game series that starts tonight at Nationals Park.

The Phillies are 11-2 thus far in June, which has seen them move from eight games under .500 to a game over .500, and they have won four straight series against the Angels, Brewers, Diamondbacks, and Marlins.

The Nationals, meanwhile, have alternated series wins and losses in their last six series. If that cycle continues against the Phillies, a series win is in the cards for this weekend. But if they are to get that quest off to a positive start, they will have to take care of business against 2021 NL Cy Young Award runner-up Zack Wheeler, who has been in excellent form since a rough start this season.

Philadelphia Phillies vs. Washington Nationals Betting Odds and Matchup Information

Matchup Information

• Matchup: Philadelphia Phillies (32-31, 13-14 road, 3rd in the NL East) vs. Washington Nationals (23-42, 11-22 home, 5th in the NL East)
• Venue & Location: Nationals Park (Washington, D.C.)
• Date: Thursday, June 16, 2022
• Game Time: 7:05 p.m. Eastern Time
• TV Broadcast/Streaming Info: NBC Sports Philadelphia (Phillies), Mid-Atlantic Sports Network (Nationals), MLB Extra Innings/MLB.TV (subscription packages)

Phillies vs. Nationals Pitching Matchup

• Philadelphia Phillies: Zack Wheeler (2022: 11 starts, 5-3, 2.84 ERA)
• Washington Nationals: Patrick Corbin (2022: 13 starts, 3-8, 6.65 ERA)

Phillies vs. Nationals Odds

Game odds are via BetOnline. Odds from our top reviewed and recommended sportsbooks may also be featured in this article.

Moneyline

• Philadelphia Phillies -198
• Washington Nationals +166

Over/Under

• OVER 9 (-112)
• UNDER 9 (-108)

Run Line

• Philadelphia Phillies -1.5 (-130)
• Washington Nationals +1.5 (+108)

Can Things Continue to Trend Up for Corbin?

Both Wheeler and Corbin were drafted in 2009 and spent their first seven MLB seasons with one team before signing a big free-agent deal with another team.

Corbin debuted with the Diamondbacks in 2012, signed a six-year, $140 million deal with the Nationals after the 2018 season. Wheeler, who debuted with the Mets in 2013, signed a five-year, $119 million deal with the Phillies following the 2019 season.

When Wheeler signed with the Phillies, Corbin was just coming off of a season in which he went 14-7 with a 3.25 ERA and 238 strikeouts and had won a World Series ring.

But where Wheeler has been one of the best pitchers in the league since joining the Mets, Corbin has inexplicably fallen off. Since the start of the 2020 season, he is 14-31 with a 5.75 ERA in 55 starts.

But after starting this season 0-7 with a 6.60 ERA in his first nine starts, there have been some encouraging performances from the 32-year-old southpaw, who has won three of his last four starts.

He did give up seven runs and 12 hits 4.1 innings in a loss to the Mets on May 31, but he comes into this matchup having won back-to-back starts for only the third time in the last three seasons.

His numbers may not be incredible, but other than the start against the Mets, he has done a great job of minimizing messes.

And he is getting run support as well, as the Nats have scored seven, five, and eight runs in his three wins. In the ten Corbin starts that Washington has lost this season, they have scored just 16 runs.

Can they continue to back him against Wheeler?

A Tale of Two Wheelers

• First Three Starts: 0-3, 8.53 ERA, 12.2 IP, 17 H, 12 R (12 ER), 11 K
• Last Eight Starts: 5-0, 1.42 ERA, 50.2 IP, 37 H, 10 R (8 ER), 64 K

For what it’s worth, Wheeler has not exactly been outstanding at Nationals Park throughout his career, despite a 5-4 record in 12 starts there. He has a 4.50 ERA and has allowed 37 runs (35 earned), 78 hits, and 28 walks in 70 career innings.

Also, while Wheeler has a career WHIP of 1.219 and a career K/BB ratio of 3.17, he has a WHIP of 1.514 and a K/BB ratio of 2.25 at Nationals Park.

Additionally, while he averaged 10.4 strikeouts per nine innings last season, he recorded only 16 Ks in 19.1 innings in three starts there, making Nationals Park one of only two venues in which he did not have more strikeouts than innings pitched. The other one? Truist Park in Atlanta, where the Atlanta-area native is 2-5 with a 4.88 ERA in eight career starts.

Philadelphia Phillies vs. Washington Nationals Prediction and Best Bets

Phillies vs. Nationals Prediction: Nationals to win

Phillies vs. Nationals Best Bets: Nationals +1.5 (+110 at BetMGM), Nationals team total over 3.5 runs (+100 at BetMGM) & Phillies/Nationals over 9 (-112 at BetOnline)

Corbin may not be putting up great numbers, but he is starting to get results and run support, and that should have him in a confident place tonight against the Phillies.

The Braves handled the Nationals pretty comfortably in a three-game sweep this week, outscoring them 27-11. But while they have not looked great in their recent series losses, they have turned around and put runs on the board in their series wins.

So, things do line up well for the home team to actually be worth backing tonight, especially given that Nationals Park hasn’t been the most fun place for Wheeler even in recent times. If you want to back the Nats to get the win, the best ML value is at Bovada Sportsbook, where they come in at +175.

This is certainly not a game that merits any bets of substance, so don’t go be silly. But backing the Nats to, at minimum, keep it close and puts some runs on the board against Wheeler and the Phillies has a lot of value.

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