Prediction and Best Bets Orioles vs Blue Jays (5/19)

The American League East continues to be the best division in baseball, with all five of its teams above .500. Two of those teams are meeting tonight in the opener of a three-game series in Toronto, with the Baltimore Orioles meeting the Toronto Blue Jays at Rogers Centre (7:07 pm ET, Apple TV+).

The Orioles (28-16) were unable to hold a lead and close out a series win over the Los Angeles Angels yesterday, but they remain one of the hottest teams in the league and are just 3.5 games behind the Tampa Bay Rays (32-13) in the division standings.

The Blue Jays (25-19) had a bit of a letdown this week after sweeping the Atlanta Braves last weekend, as they lost three of four to the New York Yankees at home. But they have a chance to finish their ten-game homestand on a positive note with a series win over the Orioles.

Will Toronto take care of business at home? Read on for our prediction and best bets for today’s Orioles vs Blue Jays game.

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Baltimore Orioles vs Toronto Blue Jays Odds

Moneyline

• Baltimore Orioles +128
• Toronto Blue Jays -152

Over/Under

• Over 9 (-120)
• Under 9 (-102)

Run Line

• Baltimore Orioles +1.5 (-150)
• Toronto Blue Jays -1.5 (+125)

Pitching Matchup for Orioles vs Blue Jays

• Baltimore Orioles: RHP Kyle Gibson (4-3, 4.67 ERA)
• Toronto Blue Jays: LHP Yusei Kikuchi (5-0, 3.89 ERA)

Will Kikuchi Respond Strongly Again?

Last season wasn’t an overly positive one for Kikuchi, following his offseason move from Seattle to Toronto. After going 4-7 with a 5.25 ERA, he was demoted to the bullpen.

His final 12 appearances of the season would come from the bullpen, where he allowed 10 runs and 16 hits in his first eight appearances before ending the season by allowing no runs, one hit, and two walks and striking out 10 in 6.1 innings across his final four outings.

His strong finish may or may not have had an impact, but whatever the case, things have been mostly positive for Kikuchi so far this season in his return to the rotation.

In his eight starts, the 31-year-old southpaw has allowed no runs or one run five times. And after pitching five or more innings only eight times in 20 starts last season, he has gone at least five in six starts this season.

Last time out was one of his poorer starts of the season, however. In a season-low four innings in last Sunday’s start against Atlanta, he tied season highs with three homers and nine hits allowed and allowed five runs (four earned).

Fortunately, the Blue Jays still pulled out the win, walking off the Braves in the ninth to finish off the sweep. Also, if things follow trends that have played out thus far this season, Kikuchi is going to bounce back tonight against the Orioles.

Sunday was the third time this season that Kikuchi gave up five or more runs, in addition to allowing six runs in 4.1 innings against the Angels on April 9 and five runs in 4.1 innings against the Red Sox on May 2. In the starts following those two outings, he allowed one run, eight hits, and three walks in 12.1 innings and picked up the win in both starts.

Baltimore Orioles vs Toronto Blue Jays Prediction and Best Bets

Prediction for Orioles vs Blue Jays: Blue Jays to win

Best Bets for Orioles vs Blue Jays: Blue Jays team total over 5 runs & Blue Jays -1.5

The forecast is favorable for offense for the home team, as the Blue Jays have scored six or more runs in six of Kikuchi’s eight starts this season.

Also, the Blue Jays are 7-1 in Kikuchi’s starts this season, with five of the seven wins coming by multiple runs.

As for Gibson, this month has not been a good one. He is 0-3 with a 6.11 ERA in three starts, and in addition to giving up 12 runs, 23 hits, and five walks in just 17.2 innings, the Orioles have been blanked in all three starts.

Even when he pitched relatively well against the Rays last week (6 IP, 6 H, 2 R, 2 BB, 4 K), he still came out on the losing end due to no run support. Even if he gets some run support tonight, I still fully expect Kikuchi and the Blue Jays to take the victory.

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