Prediction & Best Bets Guardians vs Mets DH Game 2 (5/21)

With inclement weather causing yesterday’s Cleveland Guardians vs New York Mets game to be postponed, we’re set for a double dip between the two teams to close out the series today.

The first matchup is set for a 1:40 pm ET start time, while the second is ESPN’s Sunday Night Baseball matchup and set for 7:00 pm ET.

In the second matchup, two former AL Cy Young winners will take the hill, with 2020 winner Shane Bieber going for the Guardians (20-24) and three-time winner Verlander going for the Mets (23-23).

Who will shine in primetime? Read on for our prediction and best bets for Game 2 of today’s Guardians vs Mets doubleheader.

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Cleveland Guardians vs New York Mets Odds

Moneyline

• Cleveland Guardians +132
• New York Mets -156

Over/Under

• Over 7.5 (-112)
• Under 7.5 (-108)

Run Line

• Cleveland Guardians +1.5 (-152)
• New York Mets -1.5 (+126)

Pitching Matchup for Guardians vs Mets

• Cleveland Guardians: RHP Shane Bieber (9 starts, 3-2, 3.20 ERA)
• New York Mets: RHP Justin Verlander (3 starts, 1-2, 4.76 ERA)

Will Bieber and Verlander Get Back on Track After Rare Rough Outings?

Last time out, Verlander had his worst start with his new team, as he allowed six runs, eight hits (two homers), and two walks in five innings in a home loss to the Tampa Bay Rays last Tuesday.

Going back to when he joined the Houston Astros during the 2017 season, Verlander has now allowed five or more runs in eight starts, including the postseason.

In the first seven instances, he has a 2.05 ERA in the starts that followed (10 earned runs allowed in 44 innings), and his team has won six times. The lone loss came to the Colorado Rockies on August 14, 2018, when he allowed two runs and six hits and struck out 11 but was outdueled by German Marquez.

Like Verlander, Bieber is coming off of a subpar start. Against the Chicago White Sox on Tuesday, he allowed six runs (five earned) and 12 hits (two homers) in a road loss.

Like Verlander, Bieber is likely to be much better in this start. Since the start of the 2019 season, Bieber has allowed five or more runs in 12 starts.

In nine instances not counting two starts that accounted for his final start of a season, he has a 1.41 ERA in the starts that followed (10 earned runs allowed in 63.2 IP), and the Guardians have a 7-2 record.

So, does that mean we are likely going to see a low-scoring game tonight at Citi Field? Based on how most of Bieber’s starts have gone, it is likely. There have been seven or fewer combined runs in seven of his nine starts this season, while the first two games Verlander started this season were both low-scoring games.

Cleveland Guardians vs New York Mets Prediction and Best Bets

Prediction for Guardians vs Mets: Mets to win

Best Bets for Guardians vs Mets: Guardians/Mets under 7.5 & Mets to win by 1 to 3 runs

As well as Bieber has pitched for the most part this season, the Guardians haven’t made the most of it. They are just 3-6 in his starts, and that includes a 1-5 record in road games. Ouch. That is a big contributor to Bieber having only the 12th-best AL Cy Young odds, well behind favorites Shane McClanahan and Gerrit Cole.

The odds for the latter best bet aren’t out yet, but it is likely to present better value than the ML or RL. Of the Mets’ 23 wins this season, 15 have come by one, two, or three runs, including eight of the last nine.

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