Prediction, Best Bets & Odds Twins vs Angels (5/21)

After splitting the first two games of their series, the Minnesota Twins and Los Angeles Angels will meet in a rubber game this afternoon at Angel Stadium (4:07 pm ET, Bally Sports North & Bally Sports West).

The Angels (24-23) eked out a 5-4 win on Friday, while the Twins (25-21), who lead the AL Central by 3.5 games, claimed a 6-2 win in yesterday’s matchup.

To pick up just their second series win of May, the Halos will be hoping for a strong showing by Shohei Ohtani, who has had a drop-off on the mound following a strong start to the season. The same can be said for Twins starter Pablo Lopez, who is coming off of a rough outing against the L.A. area’s other baseball team.

Who will take the series win in Anaheim, and how should you bet the matchup? Read on for our prediction and best bets for today’s Twins vs Angels game.

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Minnesota Twins vs Los Angeles Angels Odds

Moneyline

• Minnesota Twins +132
• Los Angeles Angels -156

Over/Under

• Over 8.5 (+100)
• Under 8.5 (-122)

Run Line

• Minnesota Twins +1.5 (-156)
• Los Angeles Angels -1.5 (+130)

Pitching Matchup for Twins vs Angels

• Minnesota Twins: RHP Pablo Lopez (9 starts, 2-2, 4.00 ERA)
• Los Angeles Angels: RHP Shohei Ohtani (9 starts, 5-1, 3.23 ERA)

Can the Halos Overcome Another Subpar Sho-ing from Out-of-Sorts Ohtani?

While Ohtani continues to hold a healthy advantage over the rest of the field in the AL MVP race, his potential to do the MVP-Cy Young sweep has hit a snag in recent weeks.

Ohtani started the season by allowing just two runs and eight hits in 28 innings in his first five starts of the season. At that point, he had an ERA of 0.64.

In his four starts since, Ohtani has allowed 17 runs (all earned) and 18 hits in 25 innings, compiling an ERA of 6.48 in that stretch. Of those 18 hits allowed, eight have been home runs, which is eight more than he allowed in his first five starts.

As a result, he has dropped behind both Shane McClanahan and Gerrit Cole in the latest AL Cy Young odds.

Still, the Angels keep winning his starts for the most part. They were 4-1 in his first five starts, and they are 3-1 in his last four starts, losing only to Houston (in what was Ohtani’s best recent start, of course).

In the starts other than the one against the Astros, a 3-1 loss, Ohtani has gotten good run support–eight runs against the Athletics, six runs against the Cardinals, and nine runs against the Orioles–and will benefit from more of the same against the Twins.

Lopez allowed three home runs and five runs in 25.1 innings in his first four road starts of the season, but he allowed that much in just 4.2 innings last Monday at Dodger Stadium. Minnesota’s bats woke up and erased a 5-1 deficit, but the Dodgers pulled out a 9-8 win in 12 innings.

It was a disappointing step back for Lopez, who had allowed three runs in 13.1 innings in his first two May starts after ending April by allowing 11 runs and 16 hits (in 10 IP) in two starts.

If the Angels can get to Lopez this afternoon, they will likely secure their first series win since sweeping the Cardinals on the road in their first series of the month.

The Twins have given up five or more 15 times in 46 games, but they are 2-13 when they do. The Angels are 18-7 when scoring five or more runs, including a 4-0 mark in games started by Ohtani.

Minnesota Twins vs Los Angeles Angels Prediction and Best Bets

Prediction for Twins vs Angels: Angels to win

Best Bets for Twins vs Angels: Angels -1.5 & Angels team total over 4.5 runs

The Twins are just 4-7 as a road underdog this season, and they are just 4-6 in their last ten games following a win. Of those seven losses as a road underdog, five have come by multiple runs. The Angels have had five one-run games in their last ten games, but I’m fancying some RL action with the ML a bit out of my desired range. This goes against 63% of the public and 100% of the industry sources in our Twins vs Angels matchup page, but hey, I like to be a contrarian sometimes.

Also, the Halos have scored five or more runs in 75% of their wins this season and in 75% of Ohtani’s last four starts. I think they can do some damage against Lopez, as they are fifth in MLB in batting average in games started by a right-hander (.261) and average almost almost five runs per game (4.97) in games started by a righty.