Prediction, Best Bets & Odds Phillies vs Braves (5/27)

If you like runs, the series between the Philadelphia Phillies and Atlanta Braves should have suited you so far, as 23 runs were scored in the first two games. Will the scoring continue in this afternoon’s matchup at Truist Park (4:10 pm ET, FS1)?

In Thursday’s series opener, the Braves (31-20) scored the game’s final three runs in the bottom of the eighth for an 8-5 win. Last night, the Phillies (24-27) trailed 3-2 after five but scored twice in the sixth and twice more in the seventh and went on to a 6-4 win.

The third game between the two NL East rivals sees two veteran hurlers take the mound in Zack Wheeler and Charlie Morton. Both took their lumps when we last saw on them on the mound.

Who will take the win in Atlanta? Read on for our prediction and best bets for today’s Phillies vs Braves game.

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Philadelphia Phillies vs Atlanta Braves Odds

Moneyline

• Philadelphia Phillies +116
• Atlanta Braves -136

Over/Under

• Over 9 (-104)
• Under 9 (-118)

Run Line

• Philadelphia Phillies +1.5 (-166)
• Atlanta Braves -1.5 (+138)

Pitching Matchup for Phillies vs Braves

• Philadelphia Phillies: RHP Zack Wheeler (10 starts, 3-4, 4.11 ERA)
• Atlanta Braves: RHP Charlie Morton (9 starts, 5-4, 3.61 ERA)

Which Versions of Wheeler and Morton Will Show Up Today?

It hasn’t been the best of months for neither Wheeler nor Morton, both of whom are coming into this matchup after losing last time out.

In his most recent start, Wheeler allowed four runs and six hits, including two homers, in six innings in a 6-3 loss to the Arizona Diamondbacks on Monday.

It was his third loss in four starts this month, and he has given up four or more runs in each loss.

Last season, Wheeler gave up four or more runs six times in 26 regular season starts. But he has already done that five times in ten starts this season, including three times in four road starts.

Morton, meanwhile, allowed six runs and seven hits, including two homers, in five innings in a loss to the Los Angeles Dodgers on Monday. It was his second loss in four starts this month, and it was the first time he has given up multiple homers in a game this season.

While Morton has lost twice this month and was roughed up a bit on Monday, this season has thus far been an improvement upon last season.

Last season, he allowed four or more runs 14 times in 31 starts and finished with a 4.34 ERA. This season, he has done so just twice in his first ten starts.

The Braves are only 13-12 (.520) as a home favorite this season, which ranks 21st in the league. But the Phillies are just 4-12 (.250) as a road favorite, which is 29th in the league. Only the awful Athletics (5-21, .192) have been worse as a road underdog.

Philadelphia Phillies vs Atlanta Braves Prediction and Best Bets

Prediction for Phillies vs Braves: Braves to win

Best Bets for Phillies vs Braves: Braves ML & Braves team total over 4.5 runs

Last night’s loss was just the fourth in 15 games against NL East opposition this season. Look for them to bounce back today with a win over Wheeler and the Phillies.

Also, the percentages favor another productive game at the plate for Atlanta after being held to just four runs last night despite their 11-7 advantage in hits.

When they have scored four or fewer runs this season, they have scored five or more runs in the following game 14 times in 23 instances (60.9%), and they have scored five or more runs in six of the nine games Morton has started this season, including three times in his four home starts.