Rangers vs Astros ALCS Game 6 Prediction & Best Bets: Will Houston Complete the Comeback at Home?

After dropping Games 1 and 2 of the ALCS at home, things looked ominous for the Houston Astros. But after three straight wins in Arlington, the Astros are now back home with a chance to close out the Texas Rangers tonight in Game 6 (8:03 pm ET, FOX).

Early runs in Game 3 and Game 4 helped Houston tie the series, setting up a pivotal Game 5 on Friday. Once again, they scored early, but a three-run homer by Adolis Garcia in the sixth had the Astros on the ropes entering the final inning.

As great teams do, they didn’t blink, and as great players do, Jose Altuve stepped up and produced another huge postseason hit to turn the game around.

JOSE ALTUVE FOR THE LEAD!! ? #ALCS pic.twitter.com/uUlrRc9b5f

— MLB (@MLB) October 21, 2023

Thanks to Altuve’s 26th career postseason homer, Houston is now a win away from an ALCS three-peat. No one has won the AL pennant in three consecutive seasons since the New York Yankees won four in a row from 1998 to 2001.

Will the Rangers have a response, or is the outcome a formality at this point after Altuve and the Astros took over Arlington?

Texas Rangers vs Houston Astros Odds

Odds are via Bovada.

Moneyline

• Texas Rangers +100
• Houston Astros -120

Over/Under

• Over 8.5 (-110)
• Under 8.5 (-110)

Run Line

• Texas Rangers +1.5 (-200)
• Houston Astros -1.5 (+170

Which Framber Valdez Will Show Up Against the Rangers?

How Game 6 goes will heavily depend on which Framber Valdez is on the mound tonight.

Will it be the Valdez that is arguably the best left-handed pitcher in the game when he is at his best?

Or will it be the Valdez that has allowed ten runs and 14 hits in only seven innings in his two starts this postseason?

Valdez allowed four or more runs in nine of his last 16 starts in the regular season after doing so only twice in his first 15 starts, which saw his ERA go from 2.27 in late June to 3.45 at the end of the regular season.

That has carried over into the playoffs, where he allowed five runs, seven hits, and three walks in 4.1 innings in an ALDS Game 2 loss to the Minnesota Twins and five runs and seven hits in only 2.2 innings in an ALCS Game 2 loss to the Rangers.

Since his no-hitter against the Cleveland Guardians on August 1, Valdez has an 8.88 ERA in five home starts. In that stretch, he has allowed 26 runs (24 earned), 32 hits, and 10 walks in 24.1 innings, and the Astros have lost all five games.

Valdez has not fared well at home against the Rangers this season, either. In three starts, he has allowed 16 runs (11 earned), 19 hits, and five walks in 12.1 innings, and the Astros have lost all three games.

Framber Valdez vs the Texas Rangers in 2023

• October 16 (home): 2.2 IP, 7 H, 5 R (4 ER), HR, BB, 6 K
• September 5 (away): 7 IP, 6 H, R (ER), 4 BB, 4 K
• July 26 (home): 3.2 IP, 8 H, 6 R (6 ER), 2 HR, 2 BB, K
• April 16 (home): 6 IP, 4 H, 5 R (ER), 2 BB, 7 K

Another mark against Valdez and the Astros is how home teams other than the Phillies have done thus far in this year’s MLB playoffs.

The Phillies, who will be looking to clinch a return trip to the World Series tomorrow night at home against the Diamondbacks, are 4-0 at home in the postseason.

As for everyone else? They are 9-18 at home, which includes Houston’s 1-3 mark at Minute Maid Park.

However, one major counter is how well Houston has performed in clinchers over the last few seasons.

Since missing out on a chance to sweep the Chicago White Sox in the ALDS in 2021, the Astros are 6-0 in series-clinching opportunities, with wins at home against the Boston Red Sox in the 2021 ALCS and the Phillies in last year’s World Series.

Texas Rangers vs Houston Astros Prediction and Best Bets

Prediction: Astros to win

Best Bets: Astros ML (-125)

Where to Bet on the MLB Playoffs

Many top online sportsbooks offer a wide variety of MLB odds throughout the season.

In addition to being able to make daily MLB picks on games from Opening Day until the final game of the Fall Classic, you can also bet on MLB MVP odds, Cy Young Award odds, and MLB Rookie of the Year odds, as well as World Series odds.

There are many sportsbooks out there that are good for MLB betting, but here are some of the books that we have reviewed and highly recommend:

• BetDSI
• BetOnline
• BetUS
• Bookmaker
• Bovada
• MyBookie
• Sportsbetting.ag

If you don’t have an account at a book on this list, check out our reviews to help you determine if it is worth your interest and your betting funds.

Other MLB Content on Betting News

• Odds to Win the 2023 World Series
• 2023 World Series MVP Odds