Rangers vs. Astros (September 6): Valdez looks to kickstart late Cy Young charge

After being shut down by an MLB debutant yesterday in Houston, the Texas Rangers will have an even tougher assignment for tonight’s matchup at Minute Maid Park.

In the series opener, Astros rookie Hunter Brown made an instant impact in his debut in the bigs, going blow for blow with All-Star pitcher Martin Perez.

Perez allowed just one run in seven innings, but that was all that the Astros needed with Brown (6 IP, 3 H, 0 R, BB, 5 K) and three relievers blanking the Rangers.

Tonight, Texas will have to contend with Framber Valdez, who is still on the outside of the AL Cy Young Award race despite being on an amazing run since April.

With his rotation mate Justin Verlander currently sidelined, will that change? It may well not, but another outstanding outing against the Rangers certainly won’t hurt his cause.

Texas Rangers vs. Houston Astros Matchup Information and Betting Odds

Matchup Information

• Matchup: Texas Rangers (58-76, 30-38 away, 3rd in the AL West) vs. Houston Astros (87-48, 44-20 home, 1st in the AL West)
• Venue & Location: Minute Maid Park (Houston, Texas)
• Date: Tuesday, September 6, 2022
• Game Time: 8:10 p.m. Eastern Time (7:10 p.m. local time)

Rangers vs. Astros Pitching Matchup

• Texas: Glenn Otto (2022: 21 starts, 6-8, 4.82 ERA)
• Houston: Framber Valdez (2022: 25 starts, 14-4, 2.63 ERA)

Rangers vs. Astros Odds

Game odds are via BetOnline. This article may also mention odds from other legal sportsbooks that we have reviewed and recommend.

Moneyline

• Texas Rangers +235
• Houston Astros -290

Over/Under

• Over 7.5 (-106)
• Under 7.5 (-114)

Run Line

• Texas Rangers +1.5 (+106)
• Houston Astros -1.5 (-128)

Texas Rangers vs. Houston Astros Prediction and Picks

Rangers vs. Astros Prediction: Houston to win

Rangers vs. Astros Picks: Texas team total under 2.5 runs (Best Value: +105 at Bovada Sportsbook), Framber Valdez over 6.5 strikeouts (Best Value: -128 at BetOnline) & Astros -1.5 (Best Value: -118 at BetUS)

Valdez is MLB’s leader in quality starts with 23, three ahead of Yu Darvish and Alek Manoah. The last 22 of them have come consecutively, which puts him within reach of two MLB records with enough starts left to reach both.

With two more quality starts, he will break Jacob deGrom’s record for most quality starts in a season (24), and with four more in a row, he will break deGrom and Bob Gibson’s record for most consecutive quality starts (26).

The chances are high that he will remain on track for both of those records tonight.

Quality starts can often not indicate how well or poorly someone pitches, but Valdez is having an excellent season and has been outstanding recently.

He has pitched at least seven innings in each of his last four starts, winning all four and recording a 1.55 ERA. At BetOnline, he is +8000 to win the AL Cy Young Award, but those odds could shorten if he dominates the Rangers again tonight.

Last time out, he allowed two runs and seven hits and struck out eight (with no walks) in eight innings in a 4-2 win in Arlington last Tuesday. He gave up multiple homers in a game for the first time all season, which is highly unlikely to happen this time around.

The Rangers have scored three or fewer runs in 13 of 17 games against the Astros this season, including all four of Valdez’s starts against them.

Valdez’s streak of quality starts began against Texas on April 25, and he has followed that one with three more quality starts against the Rangers.

Framber Valdez vs. the Texas Rangers This Season

• April 25 at Texas: 6 IP, 4 H, R (0 ER), 2 BB, 5 K
• May 19 vs. Texas: 7 IP, 6 H, R (ER), 2 BB, 7 K
• August 11 vs. Texas: 7 IP, 4 H, 0 R, BB, 8 K
• August 30 at Texas: 8 IP, 7 H, 2 R (2 ER), 0 BB, 8 K

Valdez has struck out seven or more in five of his last seven starts and has tallied seven or more Ks in three of four starts against the Rangers, who average 8.7 strikeouts per game and struck out ten times last night.

Look for Valdez to go over 6.5 strikeouts yet again against Texas and for him and for the Rangers to have another unproductive night against him and overall.

I like his K prop and the under on the Rangers’ team total the most, but the -1.5 is also an excellent play.

The Astros have 21 one-run wins this season (24.1 percent of their wins this season). But only five of their 28 wins in the second half (17.9 percent) have come by one run.

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