Rangers vs. Mariners (September 28): Will Perez’s prolong Seattle’s untimely slide?

Despite being shut out last night by the Texas Rangers, the Seattle Mariners are still in a strong position to end their long postseason drought.

Will that remain the case? With a three and a half game lead over the Baltimore Orioles for the final American League wild-card spot, a lot still has to happen for Seattle to collapse their way out of the playoffs.

In fact, even after last night’s loss, the Mariners are still 99.9 percent likely to secure a playoff berth, according to ESPN.

But when you have lost eight of your last 11 games, are currently without the most important player in your lineup and are struggling to beat some of the worst teams in the league, nothing is certain, even with a difficult final week for the Orioles.

Will they be able to pick up a valuable win tonight with George Kirby on the mound? With All-Star hurler Martin Perez on the other side, another tough night could be ahead for Seattle.

Texas Rangers vs. Seattle Mariners Matchup Information and Betting Odds

Matchup Information

• Matchup: Texas Rangers vs. Seattle Mariners
• Venue & Location: T-Mobile Park (Seattle, Washington)
• Date: Wednesday, September 28, 2022
• Game Time: 9:40 p.m. Eastern Time (6:40 p.m. local time)

Rangers vs. Mariners Pitching Matchup

• Texas: LHP Martin Perez (2022: 30 starts, 12-6, 2.90 ERA)
• Seattle: RHP George Kirby (2022: 22 starts, 7-4, 3.30 ERA)

Rangers vs. Mariners Odds

Game odds are via BetOnline. Odds from our other recommended legal sports betting sites may also appear in this article.

Moneyline

• Texas Rangers +136
• Seattle Mariners -162

Over/Under

• Over 6.5 (-115)
• Under 6.5 (-104)

Run Line

• Texas Rangers +1.5 (-164)
• Seattle Mariners -1.5 (+136)

Texas Rangers vs. Seattle Mariners Prediction and Best Bets

Rangers vs. Mariners Prediction: Rangers to win

Rangers vs. Mariners Best Bets: Rangers/Mariners under 6.5 (Best Value: +104 at BetUS)

Last Thursday against Oakland, the bats gave Kirby an early 3-0 lead, but after two scoreless frames, he ran into trouble in a five-run third and exited after only 2.1 innings, with five runs, seven hits, and three walks allowed.

The good news is that he will likely be much, much better tonight.

Prior to that stumble, Kirby had a 2.09 ERA in his previous 12 starts. And since giving up seven runs in four innings against the Orioles on June 27, he has allowed just six runs (five earned) in 35.1 innings across his last six home starts (1.27 ERA).

Kirby has also pitched well for the most part following his poorer outings. In the first four instances following a start in which he gave up four or more runs, he allowed seven runs in 24 innings (2.62 ERA), with four of those seven coming in one start.

He has also pitched well against the Rangers, but so has Perez against the Mariners.

Head-to-Head Numbers for Tonight’s Starting Pitchers

• Kirby vs. Texas (three starts): 1-0, 2.16 ERA
• Perez vs. Seattle (three starts): 0-0, 2.12 ERA

After being blanked by Johnny Wholestaff last night, the forecast isn’t exactly encouraging for Seattle tonight with Perez on the mound.

The Mariners hit better against LHP than RHP, which isn’t saying much when it’s .232 vs. .227 and when Julio Rodriguez, who’s tops among their regulars in batting average vs. LHP (.274), is sidelined until next week’s season-ending series against the Tigers.

As much as I want to bet against the Mariners, I won’t, because you don’t want to kick someone when they’re already down. But I am comfortable and confident in the under, even with little room for too many crooked numbers to go up on the scoreboard.

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