Rangers vs. White Sox (June 11): Is the under the best play for this Windy City matinee?

The Texas Rangers may not be a factor in the AL West or AL playoff race this season, but they do have one of the season’s biggest surprises in pitcher Martin Perez.

Today, Perez will look to continue his hot start against the Chicago White Sox and Lucas Giolito, who will be looking to pick up a valuable win for the home team.

While Perez is not yet among the top AL Cy Young Award contenders–BetOnline currently has him at +6000 to win the award–he is well on his way to a career-best season in his return to the Rangers following a season with the Minnesota Twins and two seasons with the Boston Red Sox.

Texas Rangers vs. Chicago White Sox Betting Odds and Matchup Information

Matchup Information

• Matchup: Texas Rangers (26-31, 13-15 road, tied for 3rd in the AL West) vs. Chicago White Sox (27-29, 13-15 home, 3rd in the AL Central)
• Venue & Location: Guaranteed Rate Field (Chicago, Illinois)
• Date: Saturday, June 11, 2022
• Time: 2:10 p.m. Eastern Time (1:10 p.m. local time)
• How to Watch Today’s Rangers vs. White Sox Game: Bally Sports Southwest (Rangers), NBC Sports Chicago (White Sox), MLB Extra Innings/MLB.TV (subscription packages)

Rangers vs. White Sox Pitching Matchup

• Texas Rangers: Martin Perez (2022: 11 starts, 4-2, 1.56 ERA)
• Chicago White Sox: Lucas Giolito (2022: 9 starts, 4-2, 3.54 ERA)

Rangers vs. White Sox Odds

Game odds are via BetOnline. Odds from our other top reviewed and recommended sportsbooks may also be included in this article.

Moneyline

• Texas Rangers +122
• Chicago White Sox -144

Over/Under

• OVER 8 (-108)
• UNDER 8 (-112)

Run Line

• Texas Rangers +1.5 (-176)
• Chicago White Sox -1.5 (+146)

Trends Give Under the Edge as Sox Seek to Secure Series Win

Prior to this season, Perez’s career-best ERA came in 2013, when he posted a 3.62 ERA in 20 starts in his second season in the bigs.

It’s still early, but the 31-year-old lefty would need to have a significant drop-off in order to miss out on recording a new career-best ERA.

Perez opened this season by allowing three earned runs in each of his first two starts, and he lasted only four innings in each outing. But he has posted nine consecutive quality starts since then and has allowed just six earned runs (and nine total runs) in 61.1 innings, which comes out to an ERA of 0.88.

Perez’s most recent start was actually underwhelming compared to most of his starts, as he allowed two runs and seven hits in six innings against the Seattle Mariners this past Sunday.

Another excellent outing will be the expectation in this matchup, as he is 1-0 with a 0.31 ERA in four road starts. He has allowed just one run in 29 innings on the road this season and had a complete-game shutout of the Houston Astros at Minute Maid Park three weeks ago.

Giolito has allowed 11 runs (eight earned) in his last two starts, a road loss against the Blue Jays and a road win over the Rays. But he should be confident about a solid outing against the Rangers.

The 27-year-old righty has made only three starts at Guaranteed Rate Field thus far this season, but he has a better home ERA (2.37 at home and 4.30 on the road) and a better ERA in daytime starts (1.93 in three daytime starts and 4.19 in six nighttime starts).

Trends also lean in favor of a lower-scoring afternoon in the Windy City.

Notable Over/Under Trends for the Texas Rangers & Chicago White Sox (2022 MLB Season)

• The under is 16-11-1 in Chicago’s home games, including a 11-7-1 mark when they have been a home favorite.
• The under is 16-10-2 in the Rangers’ road games, including a 15-6-2 mark when they have been a road underdog.
• In games following a Rangers loss, the under is 16-10-4.

Texas Rangers vs. Chicago White Sox Prediction and Best Bets

Rangers vs. White Sox Prediction: White Sox to win

Rangers vs. White Sox Best Bets: UNDER 8 (-109 at BetUS) & White Sox to win by 1 to 3 runs (+135 at BetOnline)

In lieu of backing the White Sox ML at value is that is neither great nor terrible, I’m casting my eyes and my coins on them to win by a specific margin.

This season, nine of Chicago’s 13 home wins and 21 of their overall wins have come by one to three runs, and they have yet to win by more than three runs in back-to-back games.

Also, 11 of the Rangers’ road losses and 21 of their 31 overall losses this season have come by one to three runs. And of the four Perez starts that the Rangers have lost, only one has been decided by more than three runs.

So, there is unlikely to be a repeat of Friday night’s five-run win for the White Sox. For what it’s worth, if you are opting to back the Rangers instead of the White Sox in this matchup, backing Texas to win by one to three runs (+210 at BetOnline) brings plenty of value. They have won seven of Perez’s starts, but only one victory has come by four or more runs.