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Rays vs Astros: Prediction, Odds & Best Bets (July 29)
Written by: Nate Hornung
Last Updated:
Read Time: 4 minutes
mlb
Tampa Bay Rays Odds
Spread
Total
Moneyline
-1.5
+125
8
-110u
-132
Houston Astros Odds
Spread
Total
Moneyline
+1.5
-145
8
+105o
+125
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See Picks & Statistics For The GameThe Tampa Bay Rays are in Texas taking on the Houston Cheaters, I mean, Astros, in nationally televised contest today!
Both teams are currently 2nd in their American League division and are fighting with each other for a spot as the Wildcard.
Big bad Tampa Bay has definitely cooled off since their red hot start to the season. The Rays were 13-0 to start, and even got up to 29-7. But since June 9th, they are 16-24.
They no longer control the AL East, and they need to turn things around before they go from bad to worse.
The Rays beat the Astros last night 4-3 to win game one of this series, but tonight we have an incredible matchup with two very good pitchers on the bump.
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Rays vs Astros Season History
Despite the Rays hot start, the Astros did hand them two out of their first five losses at Tropicana Field, but that was way back in April.
Houston lost 8-3 the first night, but then shutout the Rays twice, winning 5-0, and 1-0 the next two games.
Both pitchers we see tonight were able to secure a win in that series for their team, but tonight one must go down.
Let’s breakdown tonight’s game in Houston!
Rays vs Astros Game Information
Matchup Information
- Venue & Location: Minute Maid Park (Houston, TX)
- Date: Saturday, July 29th, 2023
- First Pitch: 7:15pm Eastern
- Broadcast: FOX
Pitching Matchup
- Tampa Bay Rays: Taj Bradley (5-6, 5.30 ERA)
- Houston Astros: Hunter Brown (6-7, 4.19 ERA)
Betting Odds
Odds courtesy of Bovada.
Runline
- Rays +1.5 (-185)
- Astros -1.5 (+160)
Moneyline
- Rays +108
- Astros -130
Total
- Over 8.5 (-110)
- Under 8.5 (-110)
Pitching Masterclass Incoming?
Last night, Christian Javier was able to strikeout 9 Rays batters in just 6 innings while only giving up 3 hits.
I think Hunter Brown can do something similar tonight, but we will dive into that more in a bit…
From the other dugout comes Taj Bradley. Now although the Astros don’t strikeout as much as the Rays against RHP, Bradley is definitely a strikeout pitcher.
Let me just get right to it, I think both of these guys could soar over their strikeout line.
I lean under but am not very interested in a side, but man, I think I love these pitchers too much.
Player Props
Hunter Brown over 6.5 Strikeouts (-115) Bovada
Brown has posted 7+ Ks in 11 of 19 starts this year, and 4 of his last 5 at Minute Maid Park. He puts up 1.16 K/Inning, ranking in the top 25% of MLB pitchers.
Brown had 8 strikeouts against the Rays in April, and he lasted 7 innings in a shutout win.
Over the past month, Tampa Bay has struck out 24.7%, putting them 9th worse against RHP in the MLB.
More recently, Brown has cleared this in 8 of his last 12 starts and historically does well against these Rays hitters.
He’s struck out Randy Arozarena 3/5 at-bats, Yandy Díaz 3/4 ABs, and Wander Franco 1/5 ABs.
I am absolutely laddering this after Javier’s performance last night.
- 7+ Ks (+100)
- 8+ Ks (+200)
- 9+ Ks (+370)
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Taj Bradley over 4.5 Strikeouts (-142)
Have no fear, pay the juiceman!
Bradley clears 5 strikeouts in 67% of starts this season. He had six in his last start against the Astros, and he’s cleared in 5 of 8 away starts.
The Astros don’t strikeout very often, and are actually very good at avoiding strikeouts against righties, but Bradley is definitely a strikeout pitcher.
He is in the Top 8% of the league averaging 1.34 K/Inning, and he’s at 8+ in half of his away starts, including 9 in his last road start in Texas.
He’s had 6+ in two straight games since the All Star Break after failing to clear in three games leading up to it.
I’ll lay the juice with Bradley for 5+, and also take 6+ Ks at (+150).
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Nate has been a recreational sports bettor for about 5 years. In that time, he has grown to love the pursuit of winners and sticking it to The Man. Nate loves data and uses his understanding of numbers to help him be a more profitable sports gambler, however he will be the first to tell you this game is about more than just stats.
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