Rays vs. Marlins (August 30): Will sensational Shane set up September Cy Young chase with masterpiece in Miami?

Thanks to events that took place over the past few days, today’s series opener between the Tampa Bay Rays and Miami Marlins carries some extra significance beyond being the latest matchup between MLB’s two Sunshine State teams.

The Rays went into the weekend with 11 wins in 13 games, but they dropped two of three at Fenway Park against the Boston Red Sox.

With how results have shaken out elsewhere, only three games separate Tampa Bay, who occupies the top AL wild-card spot, from the Minnesota Twins, who are the second team on the outside looking in.

At the same time, the Yankees are trying to end August how they have spent most of it. Their three straight losses to the A’s and Angels mean that the Rays are now within seven games in the AL East.

With the two teams set to face off each of the next two weekends, the door is now open for Tampa Bay (and/or Toronto) to set up a fierce fight for the title down the stretch.

On the individual level, Rays ace Shane McClanahan could have an opening in the AL Cy Young race. Heavy favorite Justin Verlander left his Sunday start against Baltimore after three innings with right calf discomfort, and if he has to miss time, McClanahan and White Sox hurler Dylan Cease could have a chance to make a move.

Tampa Bay Rays vs. Miami Marlins Matchup Information and Betting Odds

Matchup Information

• Matchup: Tampa Bay Rays (70-57, 28-34 away, 2nd in the AL East) vs. Miami Marlins (55-73, 26-36 home, 4th in the NL East)
• Venue & Location: LoanDepot Park (Miami, Florida)
• Date: Tuesday, August 30, 2022
• Game Time: 6:40 p.m. Eastern Time

Rays vs. Marlins Pitching Matchup

• Tampa Bay Rays: Shane McClanahan (2022: 24 starts, 11-5, 2.20 ERA)
• Miami Marlins: Jesus Luzardo (2022: 11 starts, 3-5, 3.34 ERA)

Rays vs. Marlins Odds

Game odds are via BetOnline. This article may also include odds from other recommended legal sports betting sites.

Moneyline

• Tampa Bay Rays -230
• Miami Marlins +190

Over/Under

• Over 6.5 (-106)
• Under 6.5 (-114)

Run Line

• Tampa Bay Rays -1.5 (-113)
• Miami Marlins +1.5 (-106)

McClanahan Back on Track as September Nears

You never like to see anyone go down, especially when it is one of the best in the business, as Verlander is and has been for much of his MLB career.

But with regards to McClanahan’s Cy Young hopes, the timing coincides with an uptick in the 25-year-old lefty’s form following his two worst starts of the season.

Across his last July start and first August start, he gave up nine runs and 13 hits and managed only seven strikeouts in 10.2 innings.

But he has three quality starts in three starts since, and in that trio of starts, he is 1-0 with a sub-2.00 ERA. In 19 innings, he has allowed just four runs and 13 hits.

His Ks have also picked up, as he has 17 strikeouts in his last two starts after tallying 18 in his first post-ASG starts.

Last Three Starts for Shane McClanahan

• W vs. Baltimore Orioles (8/13): 6 IP, 7 H, 2 R (2 ER), 3 BB, 4 K
• no-decision vs. Kansas City Royals (8/19): 7 IP, 2 H, 2 R (2 ER), HR, 3 BB, 8 K
• no-decision vs. Angels (8/24): 6 IP, 4 H, 0 R, BB, 9 K

It will benefit both the Rays and McClanahan if he can continue this run in Miami, and he should do so. This will be just his ninth road start of the season, but he has six quality starts in his first eight.

The Marlins took the Dodgers to extra innings twice in their series, but their only win out of the four games came on Saturday, when Sandy Alcantara went a long way towards locking up the NL Cy Young by tossing a complete game.

After scoring six runs in the final five innings in Friday’s 10-6, 10-inning loss, the Marlins scored just five runs in 28 innings in the rest of the series.

In their last 28 games, the Marlins have scored more than three runs just three times: 8/16 vs. San Diego (a 4-3 win), 8/23 at Oakland (a 5-3 win), and 8/26 vs. the Dodgers (a 10-6 loss).

In that stretch, they have scored fewer than three runs 15 times and been shut out three times. Given how the Marlins are faring against lefties this season, the outlook for their matchup with McClanahan is not at all an optimistic one.

Platoon Splits for the Miami Marlins (2022 Season)

• Batting average vs. LHP: .199 (.239 vs. RHP)
• Batting average in games started by LHP: .207 (.237 in games started by RHP)
• Runs per game in games started by LHP: 2.97 (3.85 in games started by RHP)

When he faced the Marlins at Tropicana Field on May 24, McClanahan pitched six shutout innings in the Rays’ 4-0 win. In that outing, he allowed four hits and two walks and struck out nine, one of the 13 times this season in which he has tallied 8+ Ks.

Tampa Bay Rays vs. Miami Marlins Prediction and Picks

Rays vs. Marlins Prediction: Rays to win

Rays vs. Marlins Picks: Rays -1.5 (Best Value: -115 at BetOnline)

The big worry when backing McClanahan and the Rays in this spot or any spot is whether or not he’ll get good enough run support.

After all, Tampa Bay has scored three or fewer runs in exactly half of McClanahan’s starts this season, including five of his eight road starts.

The Rays are just 3-5 in McClanahan’s starts away from Tropicana Field, and their mediocre record in his starts–14 wins, 10 losses to date–could very loom large come for their hopes to either win the AL East or lock down a wild-card spot.

But this is about as favorable of a matchup as McClanahan could get. The Marlins are dead last in the league–by some distance, at that–in batting average against lefties and 29th in batting average in games with a lefty starter.

On top of that, they are one of the worst teams in the league in batting with runners in scoring position and are in the bottom half of the league in batting with runners on and runners in scoring position with two outs.

Against McClanahan, opponents are hitting .222 (39 for 176) with runners on, .173 (14 for 81) with runners in scoring position, and .158 (6 for 38) with runners in scoring position with two outs.

Luzardo comes in with back-to-back quality starts, but both were on the road, where he has been better (2-2, 2.54 ERA in seven starts) than at home (1-3, 4.87 ERA in four starts).

I expect the Rays to scratch across enough runs to back up another McClanahan gem and cover the run line.

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