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Red Sox vs Mariners: Prediction, Odds & Best Bets (August 2)
Written by: Nate Hornung
Last Updated:
Read Time: 4 minutes
mlb
Boston Red Sox Odds
Spread
Total
Moneyline
-2.5
-485
9
+320u
0
Seattle Mariners Odds
Spread
Total
Moneyline
+2.5
+360
9
-485o
+1800
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See Picks & Statistics For The GameWe are back in Seattle tonight as two American League squads face off to decide the series. The Seattle Mariners host the Boston Red Sox in the series finale, and it’s all tied up.
The Red Sox lead the overall season series 3-2 after winning two in the first meeting at Fenway Park.
After dropping game one Monday night, the Red Sox turned it around in game 2 with a 6-4 victory. Today Boston can win the series and the season matchup against the Mariners in this day game.
Let’s break it down!
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Red Sox vs Mariners Matchup
Kutter Crawford and Logan Gilbert start for their respective sides.
And honestly, we might see a pitching masterclass from both sides.
With a low total, Vegas expects the same, and both of these guys have sub 4.00 ERAs and are bordering a 1.00 WHIP.
In the first series, we saw double digits runs in all three games. So far this series we’ve had totals of 8 and 10, but tonight could be even lower.
Red Sox vs Mariners Game Information
Matchup Information
- Venue & Location: T-Mobile Park (Seattle, WA)
- Date: Wednesday, August, 2nd, 2023
- First Pitch: 4:10pm Eastern
- Broadcast: ROOT Sports NW
Pitching Matchup
- Boston Red Sox: Kutter Crawford (5-5, 3.86 ERA)
- Seattle Mariners: Logan Gilbert (9-5, 3.83 ERA)
Betting Odds
Odds courtesy of Bovada.
Runline
- Red Sox +1.5 (-195)
- Mariners -1.5 (+165)
Moneyline
- Red Sox +105
- Mariners -125
Total
- Over 7.5 (-120)
- Under 7.5 (+100)
Pitching Masterclass From Both Sides?
Both of these guys have very similar stats. Sub 4.00 ERA, off by 0.03 (3.86 and 3.83). Both average just over 1.00 WHIP, again, off by 0.03 (1.09 and 1.06), and they both have similar K/Inning (0.99 and 0.97).
Statistically, the Red Sox have the better offense while the Mariners have the edge on pitching and defense.
Again, with the low total, I think we see it be a pitching duel.
Because of past games, and double digits runs in 4/5 contests, I’m a bit scared of the under, but I do have some player props per usual.
Player Props
Logan Gilbert over 5.5 Strikeouts (-132) Bovada
At the beginning of the season, Gilbert was a flamethrower.
To start the season, he had 6+ Ks in seven straight starts. He even cleared the line in 10 of his first 12 outings. The Red Sox don’t strikeout too often, but I still like this Mariners’ pitcher.
Now, as of recently he hasn’t faired too well, but he’s been ridiculously close.
In his last 7, he’s only cleared in two games, but he’s had 5 in four games and 4 in the other one.
Gilbert averages just under 6 Ks per contest overall and at home, and I like him to shutdown the Red Sox tonight whose offensive splits drop significantly on the road.
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Kutter Crawford over 5.5 Strikeouts (+110) BetOnline
This one will definitely be sweaty.
So reach over your shoulder, grab that seat belt, and buckle up.
Let’s rip off the bandaid, Crawford has only posted 6+ Ks in 4 of 20 starts this year. You read that right, only 20%.
However, he has 4 games with 5+ Ks, and the Mariners strikeout the 2nd most in the league against RHP. They strikeout 27.6% of the time.
The last two nights, the Mariners allowed Nick Pivetta to get 10 Ks, and Brayan Bello struck out 7 batters.
Tonight is Crawford’s turn.
He has cleared this line in 2 of his last 3, posting 9 Ks and 7 Ks. Plus, 3 of the 4 times he’s cleared this line, he’s been on the road.
In his last two road starts, Crawford has 16 strikeouts, and all we need is 6+ tonight.
His K/Inning and increases away from home, and again, the Mariners love to swing and miss.
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Nate has been a recreational sports bettor for about 5 years. In that time, he has grown to love the pursuit of winners and sticking it to The Man. Nate loves data and uses his understanding of numbers to help him be a more profitable sports gambler, however he will be the first to tell you this game is about more than just stats.
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