Reds vs. Brewers (September 11): Will Woodruff lead Milwaukee to an important series win at home?

Try as they might in recent weeks, the Milwaukee Brewers haven’t played themselves out of the NL wild-card race. And if they can wrap up a series win over the visiting Cincinnati Reds this afternoon, they will enter an unfavorable stretch in a favorable position.

The Brew Crew lost Friday’s series opener, but they bounced back with a win yesterday to set up a rubber game this afternoon.

They are still playing catch-up, but the San Diego Padres (three games ahead and currently occupying the final NL wild-card spot) and Philadelphia Phillies (3.5 games ahead and currently occupying the second NL wild-card spot) are within reach with plenty of baseball left.

That said, Milwaukee has the Cardinals, Yankees, and Mets up next, so today’s game is certainly one that they can ill-afford to lose. Fortunately, they have one of their top arms on the mound today in Brandon Woodruff, who will be taking his eighth crack at picking up his 10th win of the season.

Cincinnati Reds vs. Milwaukee Brewers Matchup Information and Betting Odds

Matchup Information

• Matchup: Cincinnati Reds (56-81, 27-42 away, 4th in the NL Central) vs. Milwaukee Brewers (74-66, 38-27 home, 2nd in the NL Central)
• Venue & Location: American Family Field (Milwaukee, Wisconsin)
• Date: Sunday, September 11, 2022
• Game Time: 2:10 p.m. Eastern Time (1:10 p.m. local time)

Reds vs. Brewers Pitching Matchup

• Cincinnati: RHP Justin Dunn (2022: 6 starts, 1-2, 4.82 ERA)
• Milwaukee: RHP Brandon Woodruff (2022: 22 starts, 9-4, 3.41 ERA)

Reds vs. Brewers Odds

Game odds are via BetOnline. This article may also mention odds from other legal sportsbooks that we have reviewed and recommend to our readers.

Moneyline

• Cincinnati Reds +235
• Milwaukee Brewers -290

Over/Under

• Over 8 (-106)
• Under 8 (-114)

Run Line

• Cincinnati Reds +1.5 (+112)
• Milwaukee Brewers -1.5 (-134)

Cincinnati Reds vs. Milwaukee Brewers Prediction and Best Bets

Reds vs. Brewers Prediction: Milwaukee to win

Reds vs. Brewers Best Bet: Milwaukee -1.5 (Best Value: -130 at BetMGM)

Yesterday’s 5-1 win over the Reds was the Brewers’ ninth in 14 head-to-head matchups this season. Seven of those nine wins have come by 2+ runs, and today’s game should go the same way.

Woodruff hasn’t been credited with a win since July 29 at Boston, but today’s game is as good of a chance as he could hope for to break that run. This season, Woodruff is 5-0 with a 2.22 ERA in nine home starts. Milwaukee is 8-1 in those nine starts, and seven of those eight wins have come by 2+ runs.

In his winless streak, the Brewers have won just one of his four road starts but have won all three of his home starts, which augurs well for his and their hopes this afternoon.

Milwaukee is just 42-68 (.382) this season covering the run line as a favorite, but 17 of their 24 wins since the All-Star break have come by 2+ runs, including 11 of their last 12 victories. The outlier in the bunch was the 2-1 win over the San Francisco Giants in the first game of Thursday’s doubleheader.

The Reds have won both of Dunn’s home starts this season, but they are just 1-3 in his four road starts, with all three losses coming by at least four runs.

Lastly, 18 of Cincinnati’s 24 second-half losses have come by multiple runs, and the Reds are one of the worst teams in the league in covering the run line.

Entering today, they are 23rd both in covering the run line as an underdog overall (55-53, .509) and in covering the run line as a road underdog (34-31, .523).

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