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Reds vs Cubs: Prediction, Odds & Best Bets (August 1)
Written by: Nate Hornung
Last Updated:
Read Time: 4 minutes
mlb
Cincinnati Reds Odds
Spread
Total
Moneyline
-1.5
-144
11
-115u
+130
Chicago Cubs Odds
Spread
Total
Moneyline
+1.5
+124
11
-105o
-145
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See Picks & Statistics For The GameThe Reds and Cubs face off again at Wrigley Park tonight, and the Cubs need a win.
They just got off an 8 game winning streak and have now lost their last two, including last night to the Reds.
This is game two of a four game series, and but we will see these teams face off again in early September. They’ve got plenty of history this season already, and in years past.
Let’s breakdown tonight’s matchup!
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NL Central Rivalry
So far this season, these teams have played six total games, and the Cubs probably want to forget most of them.
The Reds lead the season series 5-1 after winning last night. The Reds swept the Cubs at Wrigley in late May, and are now 4-0 this season at Chicago.
They lead the NL Central by 1.5 games over the Brewers, and the Cubs are lurking just 5 games back.
The Cubs would love to close the gap and win these next three games to really have a shot at the division, but can they do so with Justin Steele against these Reds hitters?
Reds vs Cubs Game Information
Matchup Information
- Venue & Location: Wrigley Field (Chicago, IL)
- Date: Tuesday, August, 1st, 2023
- First Pitch: 8:05pm Eastern
- Broadcast: Marquee Sports Network – Chicago
Pitching Matchup
- Cincinnati Reds: Ben Lively (4-6, 3.76 ERA)
- Chicago Cubs: Justin Steele (11-3. 2.87 ERA)
Betting Odds
Odds courtesy of Bovada.
Runline
- Reds +1.5 (-140)
- Cubs -1.5 (+120)
Moneyline
- Reds +140
- Cubs -168
Total
- Over 9 (+105)
- Under 9 (-125)
Reds vs Cubs Prediction & Best Bets
In his one start against the Reds this year, Justin Steele got absolutely shelled.
He only lasted 3.2 innings in his second loss of the season. He allowed 10 hits and 5 earned runs while only striking out 4 batters.
The Reds one this game 9-0.
It’s worth noting this was also before Elly De La Cruz stepped on the scene.
The Cubs are only .500 at home, and the Reds are actually a better team on the road. Cincinnati is 31-23 in away games this year.
Now, the Reds are 7-3 in their last 10, but the are only 14-19 in their division, while the Cubs are 18-14.
I lean with Cincinnati, but I’ll stick to props in this one.
Player Props
Matt McLain over 1.5 Bases (+141) Bovada
McClain bats .333 off of lefties this year, up from his normal average of .300, and he keeps this average up against Steele.
McClain bats 2nd in the lineup so he sees the plate plenty of time.
He’s cleared 2+ bases in 6 of his last 10 games, totaling 22 bases in that stretch. He also has 3 home runs in his last 10 contests.
Steele has allowed 17 of his 21 doubles to righties this year, and McClain has done well against Chicago.
Although he didn’t do anything last night, he’s cleared this line in 3 of 4 games against the Cubs. He has 9 hits and 10 bases at Wrigley this year.
I also love his Hits, Runs, & RBIs line at over 1.5 (-115).
This would be a solid alternative, as McClain can get on base and let Elly De La Cruz or CES knock him in.
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Dansby Swanson over 1.5 HRRs (-120) Bovada
Swanson bats .266 against RHP this year, and he bats .500 against Lively in his career. In 4 ABs, Swanson has a hit, 2 strikeouts and a walk.
Dansby clears this line in 56% of games at Wrigley this year, and batting 6th I think he has tons of opportunity for an RBI.
He’s cleared in 18 of his last 30 at home, and three straight. Swanson has 11 total HRRs in his last three home games.
His numbers are even better against the Reds.
In six games against Cincinnati, Swanson has cleared this line in 5/6.
He has 17 total Hits, Runs, and RBIs against the Reds this year, and batting well recently, I see him clearing this line tonight as well.
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Nate has been a recreational sports bettor for about 5 years. In that time, he has grown to love the pursuit of winners and sticking it to The Man. Nate loves data and uses his understanding of numbers to help him be a more profitable sports gambler, however he will be the first to tell you this game is about more than just stats.
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