Prediction, Best Bets & Odds Rays vs Cubs (5/31)

Two pitchers’ duels have gone the way of the Chicago Cubs in their series with the high-flying Tampa Bay Rays. Can they get it done in a third straight game to seal a sweep of the AL East leaders?

On Monday, Marcus Stroman tossed a complete-game, one-hit shutout in a 1-0 win for the Cubs (24-30, 15-15 home). Yesterday, Kyle Hendricks and the bullpen surrendered just one run to the Rays (39-18, 13-12 away), and the Cubs eked out enough offense to hand AL Cy Young Award favorite Shane McClanahan his first loss of the season in a 2-1 win.

Will we see another low-scoring game at Wrigley Field to wrap up this series? Read on for our prediction and best bets for today’s Rays vs Cubs game.

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Tampa Bay Rays vs Chicago Cubs Odds

Moneyline

• Tampa Bay Rays -138
• Chicago Cubs +118

Over/Under

• Over 9 (+100)
• Under 9 (-122)

Run Line

• Tampa Bay Rays +1.5 (+108)
• Chicago Cubs +1.5 (-130)

Pitching Matchup for Rays vs Cubs

• Tampa Bay Rays: RHP Zach Eflin (9 starts, 7-1, 3.17 ERA)
• Chicago Cubs: LHP Justin Steele (11 starts, 6-2, 2.77 ERA)

Will Steele Get Back on Track to Shut Down Tampa Bay?

After going 6-0 with a 1.82 ERA in his first eight starts, Steele has looked a lot more mortal in two of his last three starts.

He allowed a season-high five runs in taking his first loss of the season at Houston two weeks ago, and last time out, he tied that season-high with five runs allowed, gave up a season-high ten hits, and pitched a season-low 3.2 innings in a home loss to the Cincinnati Reds this past Friday.

However, in between those two subpar starts, he pitched six shutout innings against the Philadelphia Phillies.

Unfortunately for him, the Cubs weren’t able to generate much offense against Taijuan Walker and Philadelphia’s bullpen in a 2-1 loss.

During his fantastic start to the season, Steele had gotten good run support, but that support has dried up in his last few starts. The Cubs have scored at least four runs in each of his six wins, but in his last three starts, they have scored four runs total.

That lack of support will continue today against the Rays if Eflin doesn’t take a step back. He is coming off of one of his best starts of the season, as he allowed one run and six hits in seven innings in a win over the Toronto Blue Jays last Thursday.

It hasn’t been all smooth sailing for Eflin–he has given up four runs in each of his last two road starts–but it has been quite the season for the 29-year-old righty.

Entering this season, his career low for ERA in a season was 3.97, which he set in 11 appearances (10 starts) in the shortened 2020 season.

This season, he already has as many wins as he did in 38 appearances (31 starts) for the Phillies across the previous two seasons. Part of that can be attributed to solid run support, but Eflin has done his part as well, allowing three or fewer runs in seven of his nine starts.

Tampa Bay Rays vs Chicago Cubs Prediction and Best Bets

Prediction for Rays vs Cubs: Cubs to win

Best Bets for Rays vs Cubs: Rays ML & Rays -1.5

For the season, the Rays have been one of the league’s best teams in games following a loss (11-6, .647, sixth in MLB), while the Cubs have been one of the league’s worst teams in games following a win (10-13, .435, 24th in MLB).

So, those numbers certainly favor the Rays. So does the fact that the Rays have been outstanding against LHP this season. Overall, they are hitting .311 against LHP, and in 11 games started by LHP, they have hit .300 and averaged 6.73 runs per game.

That isn’t good news for Steele or the Cubs. The only team hitting better than the Rays in games started by LHP is the Reds (.303), who roughed him up in an afternoon game last Friday.

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