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Three MLB Must Bet Props: Hits, Home Runs & More | May 4, 2024
Written by: Colby Marchio
Last Updated:
Read Time: 5 minutes
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We have been blessed with a full MLB slate on this beautiful Saturday. As usual, I have a couple of must-bet player props that I think are well worth looking at, along with a hit prop that I believe is mispriced.
There are so many games today that three bets do not feel like enough. Make sure to follow me on Twitter/X @C_Marchio2 for my complete Saturday card.
Top MLB Prop Bets for Saturday’s Slate
Picks in this piece are courtesy of BetOnline. At BetOnline, you can get great odds on all of the top MLB matchups every day.
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Write Up Transparency
Be sure to follow me on X/Twitter @C_marchio2 to get my full card every day! Check my Action profile on the Action app @cmarchio
The full MLB card down -1.39 Units last night, but the scribbles went 1-1 and scrapped by with some extra cash if you only tailed the scribbles.
Player Prop: Juan Soto Over 1.5 Total Bases (+140) Get These Odds & Sign Up Bonus @ BetOnline
The Stank:
The Number one hitter on Batters-Box.com has my full attention this morning. The Yankees star has been delivering almost every single night. Batting a crisp .320 with an OPS of 1.000, the guy is seeing the ball extremely well to start the season.
Juan Soto with a triple ? pic.twitter.com/ohmf4WLVrG
— YES Network (@YESNetwork) May 2, 2024
Today he faces Tigers starter Casey Mize for the first time, who has been pitching well against lefties this season. However, over the last three seasons the data says otherwise. I am trusting the data here that Soto can take advantage of him. On top of that, Over the past two seasons Soto has been crushing majority of Mize’s pitches.
I love this spot for Soto, after going 0-4, with one strikeout last night. He has been seeing the ball very well in his last ten games recording 12 hits and going over his total base prop in half of those games. According to Batters-Box.com, when Soto is elite he records at least a hit in 61.36% of games. If I need to sweat out an extra base hit for +140 I will do that ten times out of ten. It is tremendous value for one of the games best hitters.
Player Prop: Connor Wong to Record a Hit (+100) Get These Odds & Sign Up Bonus @ Bovada
The Stank:
It’s time to head up to Target—not the store, the baseball field—where the red-hot Minnesota Twins host the Boston Red Sox. In this game, we do not care about a side, total, or anything in between. We only care about Mr. Connor Wong recording just one teeny-tiny base hit.
Don’t be rude it’s Connor Wong Day pic.twitter.com/ciw393rQGR
— Colby Marchio (@C_Marchio2) May 4, 2024
The Red Sox catcher has kicked off the season with a bang, boasting a .351 batting average, five home runs, and an impressive OPS of .974. he has an elite rating over on Batters-Box.com, and it is mind-boggling how this young man’s hit prop is even money. He crushes every single one of Pablo Lopez’s pitches. Especially the fastball, Lopez’s superior pitch. This season Wong has seen roughly 80 fastballs, he is batting a crisp .471, along with an OPS of 1.232. No reason to sweat over Lopez’s best pitch. Wong has us covered.
The value alone of a base hit should be enough for anyone. How often do the league’s worst players get little bloopers off the league’s best pitchers? All the time. It is baseball; anything can happen. Let’s ride!
Side Note: For almost +1000 to hit a home run. I do not hate Wong to go yard as well. The value and data alone is enough for me to at least sprinkle on his highly juiced props.
Home Run Prop: Vinnie Pasquantino (+630) Get These Odds & Sign Up Bonus @ Bovada
The Stank:
After a long wait, the time has finally come to place a bet on the Italian Nightmare’s home run prop. My enthusiasm for Vinnie Pasquantino is unmatched. Last season, he cashed a +800 home run ticket, and I’ve been an ardent supporter ever since.
Most Hard Hit:
Juan Soto: 30 Hard Hit
Alec Bohm: 29 Hard Hit
Salvador Perez: 29 Hard Hit
Vinnie Pasquantino: 28 Hard Hit
Lars Nootbaar: 26 Hard Hit
Will Smith: 25 Hard Hit
Manny Machado: 24 Hard Hit
Brendan Donovan: 24 Hard Hit
Shohei Ohtani: 24 Hard Hit— Jon Anderson (@JonPgh) May 3, 2024
Today, the Italian Nightmare boasts the fourth-best matchup rating according to Batters-Box.com’s current season ratings. He’s up against Rangers starter Dane Dunning, who hasn’t had the best start to the season, with a 4.13 ERA and a WHIP of 1.16. Dunning has allowed 22 hits and 17 runs in his first six starts.
Pasquantino has been seeing the ball exceptionally well, recording four hits in his last five games. Over the past two seasons, he has had great success against most of Dunning’s pitches. I also love that he has not left the yard since April 19th. For a guy like Pasquantino to have gone 13 games without a home run is insanity.
Reminder: Home run plays are to be sprinkled. There is no reason to go crazy betting on a home run prop.
Where to find more advanced analytics
Batters-Box.com is my go-to website to find the best matchup ratings for my daily MLB wagers. It is not the end all be all, but it is always a great place to start your journey into your daily baseball bets. Last season using Batters-Box.com I went up 98 units. Don’t believe me? Check my Action profile @cmarchio.
I also use FanGraphs, Statmuse and ESPN for other stats to help me decide if a player is worth my time or not.
Good luck this season you psychos!
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Former D1 (club) baseball player, Colby has been betting since his college days at DePaul, where he had to endure the worst collegiate basketball the Big East has ever seen. He is an advanced analytics nerd who spends his free time on Bart Torvik, Ken Pom and Batters-Box.com. He has never seen an underdog he has not liked. Hot. Corn. Bull. It does not matter the dog he loves them all.
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