White Sox vs. Guardians (July 12 DH Game 2): Can Cease continue his road success in Cleveland?

Chicago White Sox pitcher Dylan Cease was not selected to the upcoming MLB All-Star Game, despite being a standout performer in a disappointing first half for the reigning AL Central champions. Will that snub fuel him tonight against the Cleveland Guardians?

Ultimately, a number of high-achieving players are going to miss out every year, as there are only so many available spots. But Cease has a resume worthy of a ticket to Los Angeles, and if he does come out tonight with a little extra fire in his belly, he has reason to.

Cease currently ranks fourth in the American League in ERA, second in strikeouts, and fifth in OBA, and he leads the majors in strikeouts per nine innings. But he won’t be part of the action at Dodger Stadium next week unless others withdraw.

A big part of his success so far is what he has done on the road, and he will look to keep that going tonight at Progressive Field.

Chicago White Sox vs. Cleveland Guardians Matchup Information and Betting Odds

Matchup Information

• Matchup: Chicago White Sox (41-44, 22-19 away, 3rd in the AL Centra) vs. Cleveland Guardians (42-42, 21-17 home, 2nd in the AL Central)
• Venue & Location: Progressive Field (Cleveland, Ohio)
• Date: Tuesday, July 12, 2022
• Game Time: 7:10 p.m. Eastern Time

White Sox vs. Guardians Pitching Matchup

• Chicago White Sox: Dylan Cease (2022: 17 starts, 7-4, 2.45 ERA)
• Cleveland Guardians: Konnor Pilkington (2022: 10 appearances – 7 starts, 1-1, 4.08 ERA)

White Sox vs. Guardians Odds

Game odds are via BetOnline. This article may also include odds from other top online sports betting sites, which we have reviewed and recommend.

Moneyline

• Chicago White Sox -166
• Cleveland Guardians +140

Over/Under

• OVER 8.5 (-104)
• UNDER 8.5 (-118)

Run Line

• Chicago White Sox -1.5 (-102)
• Cleveland Guardians +1.5 (-118)

Has Cease Been as Good as the Surface Numbers Suggest?

The White Sox have been Awful at home this season, relative to who they were expected to be. Entering today, only five teams–the A’s, Cubs, Nationals, Reds, and Royals–have fewer home wins than the 19 that they have. And none were expected to be what the White Sox were expected to be this season.

Cease has had a part in that, with all of his worst starts this season coming at Guaranteed Rate Field. But he also has a 2.88 ERA at home, which is tops among Chicago’s starters, and his three home wins are most in their rotation.

But he and the South Siders have been their best away from home. Cease comes into this start with a 4-1 record and a 1.77 ERA in seven road starts.

His OBA and WHIP are higher on the road than at home, and none of his six quality starts have come on the road. But he has allowed only ten runs (seven earned) in 35.2 innings on the road, compared to 25 (18 earned) in 56.1 innings at home.

His occasional control issues, how many runners he can put on base, and the extremes that he can experience could certainly blow things up at some point this season. But as long as it is somehow working, there’s only so much good in wondering why.

For what it is worth though, opponents are hitting only .178 against him with runners on, .176 with runners in scoring position, and .200 with runners in scoring position with two outs.

Those numbers compare quite well to NL Cy Young Award favorite Sandy Alcantara (.181 OBA with runners on, .209 with runners in scoring position, and .195 with runners in scoring position with two outs).

He could find himself in some trouble if he gets generous with the baserunners tonight, however.

Situational Batting Splits for the Cleveland Guardians

• Runners on: .260 (12th in MLB)
• Runners in scoring position: .266 (4th)
• RISP w/ two outs: .261 (3rd)

In yesterday’s 8-4 win over the White Sox, the Guardians were 6 for 12 with runners in scoring position.

A five-run first was on the strength of some two-out success. With a runner on first and two outs, they went single, RBI single, walk, two-run single, walk, two-run single against Lance Lynn to take control early.

Cease can ill-afford to let control concerns pop up early in this matchup, or he could find himself in the same position.

Chicago White Sox vs. Cleveland Guardians Prediction and Best Bets

White Sox vs. Guardians Prediction: Guardians to win

White Sox vs. Guardians Best Bets: Guardians ML (+145 at MyBookie & BetMGM)

In his previous start in Cleveland this season, Cease allowed four runs, eight hits, and two walks in 5.1 innings, and he struck out a season-low three.

Sometimes matchups just aren’t great matchups, and this shapes up as a pretty tricky one for Cease, even though he comes in with a 0.93 ERA and just 19 hits allowed in 29 innings in his last five starts.

He has given up at least three walks in eight starts, including four times in seven road starts, and that possibility always looming severely limits his margin for error against a team that hits well with runners on and hits much better against righties (.258) than lefties (.220).

The White Sox have a significant edge with the starting pitching matchup, but that just increases the value that you can get with the home team here.

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