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World Series Must Bet Props: Yankees vs Dodgers Game 1 | October 25, 2024
Written by: Colby Marchio
Last Updated:
Read Time: 4 minutes
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Game 1 of the World Series between the Yankees and Dodgers is here, and it’s time to target a couple of key plays. With Jack Flaherty on the mound for L.A. and Aaron Judge leading the Yankees’ offense, there are some prime opportunities to take advantage of. Keep an eye on the early scoring and Judge’s ability to make a big impact at the plate
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2024 MLB Season: +10.6 Units
World Series Game 1
Juan Soto and Aaron Judge celebrating after home run
Yankees F5 Team Total Over 1.5 (-140)
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Game 1 of the World Series—what better time to return to the prop that started it all for us: First Five Team Totals. Kicking off the series, we’re rolling with the New York Yankees over 1.5.
Jack Flaherty was just announced as the Game 1 starter for the Los Angeles Dodgers. The 29-year-old right-hander has been all over the place this postseason, giving up 12 runs in 15.1 innings across three starts. Flaherty’s rocking a 7.04 ERA and a 1.43 WHIP this postseason, and according to Batters-Box.com, he’s got a poor hitter matchup wOBA and ISO. Plus, he’s been giving up a lot of hard contact—exactly what the Yankees excel at. This season, Flaherty has allowed 2+ runs in 19 of his 31 starts, including the postseason.
The Yankees’ lineup is stacked, with three elite-rated hitters, and four of the five top-rated hitters in this matchup. They’ve got zero poorly rated hitters and only three that hit ground balls above the league average. On the road this season, the Yankees have averaged 2.64 runs in the first five innings.
With Flaherty’s struggles, the Yankees could explode for 5+ runs or be held quiet—but with how hot their bats have been, they should carry that momentum into Los Angeles for Game 1.
Aaron Judge Over 1.5 Total Bases (+108)
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The highest-rated hitter on Batters-Box.com for Game 1 of the World Series is none other than the captain of the New York Yankees, Aaron Judge.
Judge will face Jack Flaherty for the first time, but Flaherty’s tendency to give up hard contact plays right into Judge’s hands. Against Flaherty’s arsenal, Judge’s numbers are predictably strong (it’s Aaron Judge, after all). He’s batting .250 or better, with an OPS of 1.011+ and a wRC+ of 195+ against all three of Flaherty’s primary pitches.
In games where Judge has an elite rating of .703 or higher this season, he’s recorded at least one hit 81% of the time and gone over 2+ bases in 50% of those games (sample size of 16). The Yankees will need their captain to step up on the biggest stage, and while his postseason numbers haven’t been flashy, with a .317 OBP and .704 OPS, he’s still delivered in key moments this year.
Give me the future AL MVP to go over 1.5 bases—and sprinkle on a home run!
Where to find more Advanced Analytics
Batters-Box.com is my go-to website to find the best matchup ratings for my daily MLB wagers. It is not the end all be all, but it is always a great place to start your journey into your daily baseball bets. Last season using Batters-Box.com I went up 98 units. Don’t believe me? Check my Action profile @cmarchio.
I also use FanGraphs, Statmuse and ESPN for other stats to help me decide if a play is worth my time or not.
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Former D1 (club) baseball player, Colby has been betting since his college days at DePaul, where he had to endure the worst collegiate basketball the Big East has ever seen. He is an advanced analytics nerd who spends his free time on Bart Torvik, Ken Pom and Batters-Box.com. He has never seen an underdog he has not liked. Hot. Corn. Bull. It does not matter the dog he loves them all.
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