Yankees vs. Rangers (Oct. 3): Judge’s journey continues against All-Star arm in Arlington

After the New York Yankees’ final home games of the regular season came and went without Aaron Judge hitting his 62nd home run, the pursuit of history will come to a conclusion over the next few days at Globe Life Field in Arlington, Texas.

Will that pursuit be successful? It remains to be seen, but there are certainly worse places for things to wrap up than the hitter-friendly home of the Texas Rangers.

Tonight, Judge and the Yankees will take on All-Star pitcher Martin Perez, who has proven to be rather stingy with allowing home runs this season. Naturally, that means that Judge is going to set a new American League home run record tonight, doesn’t it?

New York Yankees vs. Texas Rangers Matchup Information and Betting Odds

Matchup Information

• Matchup: New York Yankees (97-61, 40-37 away, 1st in the AL East) vs. Texas Rangers (66-92, 32-45 home, 4th in the AL West)
• Venue & Location: Globe Life Field (Arlington, Texas)
• Date: Monday, October 3, 2022
• Game Time: 7:05 p.m. Eastern Time (6:05 p.m. local time)
• How to Watch Yankees vs. Rangers: MLB Network

Yankees vs. Rangers Pitching Matchup

• New York: RHP Luis Severino (2022: 18 starts, 6-3, 3.41 ERA)
• Texas: LHP Martin Perez (2022: 31 starts, 12-7, 2.93 ERA)

Yankees vs. Rangers Odds

Game odds are via BetOnline. This article may also include odds from our other recommended legal sports betting sites.

Moneyline

• New York Yankees -154
• Texas Rangers +130

Over/Under

• Over 7.5 (-115)
• Under 7.5 (-105)

Run Line

• New York Yankees -1.5 (+116)
• Texas Rangers +1.5 (-140)

New York Yankees vs. Texas Rangers Prediction and Best Bets

Yankees vs. Rangers Prediction: Yankees to win

Yankees vs. Rangers Best Bets: Yankees/Rangers over 7.5 (Best Value: -115 at BetOnline & BetMGM) & Rangers team total over 3.5 runs (Best Value: +112 at BetUS)

In his final two games against the Orioles, Judge was 0 for 5 with three walks, an HBP, and five strikeouts.

Given how much tension there had to be with trying to break the record in front of the home fans, it might well be a relief for Judge to be on the road for these final four games.

As it happens, he has better numbers on the road than at home. However, his numbers against righties look much, much better than his numbers against lefties, and not just because he has faced righties much more.

2022 Season Batting Splits for Aaron Judge

• Home (79 games): .308 BA, 13 2B, 30 HR, 60 RBI, .417 OBP, .664 SLG%
• Away (74 games): .315 BA, 15 2B, 31 HR, 70 RBI, .438 OBP, .715 SLG%
• vs. LHP (130 at-bats): .269 BA, 5 2B, 14 HR, 35 RBI, .388 OBP, .631 SLG%
• vs. RHP (429 at-bats): .324 BA, 23 2B, 47 HR, 95 RBI, .440 OBP, .706 SLG%

Tonight, he and the Yankees will be going up against a pitcher who has given up just 11 homers in 190.1 innings this season. Last season, Perez gave up 19 homers in 114 innings with the Boston Red Sox.

He’s also going up against some unfavorable history with Perez, as he is 1 for 9 (.111) with three walks and three strikeouts vs. the veteran lefty.

Perez has not given up a homer in his last seven starts, since giving up two solo shots in a loss at Minnesota on August 19.

However, he has given up some runs recently, allowing three runs in each of his last three starts. And numbers for the season favor runs tonight for both overall and for the Rangers against Severino.

Out of Perez’s 15 home starts, there have been eight or more combined runs 10 times. And the Rangers have scored four or more runs 18 times in Perez’s last 26 starts, including nine of his 12 home starts in that period.

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