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Almeida vs Lewis Prediction, Odds & Best Bets for UFC Sao Paulo: Don’t Expect an Upset
Written by: Devon Platana
Last Updated:
Read Time: 5 minutes
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The Ultimate Fighting Championship returns to Brazil on Saturday for UFC Sao Paulo, live from Ginasio do Ibirapuera. The star-studded event is headlined by a heavyweight showdown between No. 9 Jailton Almeida and No. 10 Derrick Lewis.
Almeida was originally supposed to face Curtis Blaydes this weekend, but that changed once Blaydes withdrew in early October due to injury. Instead, “Malhadinho” will face Lewis, who’s a former UFC Heavyweight Championship challenger and one of the most seasoned veterans in the division.
If you’re looking to wager on the Almeida vs. Blaydes showdown, this betting preview has you covered. Keep reading for the latest UFC Sao Paulo main event odds, as well as the predictions and best bets for this massive clash.
UFC Sao Paulo: Almeida vs Lewis Odds
UFC Sao Paulo odds are courtesy of Bovada as of Saturday, Nov. 4 at 5:30 p.m. ET.
Moneyline
- Jailton Almeida (+375)
- Derrick Lewis (-500)
Will the Fight Go the Distance?
- Yes (+1000)
- No (-5000)
Round Total
- Over 1.5 Rounds (+230)
- Under 1.5 Rounds (-325)
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Almeida vs Lewis Tale of the Tape
Jailton Almeida — Derrick Lewis
- Record: 19-2 — 27-11 (1 NC)
- Height: 6’3” — 6’3”
- Reach: 79” — 79”
- Weight: 205 lbs — 260 lbs
- Age: 32 — 38
- Fighting Stance: Orthodox — Orthodox
- Knockouts: 7 — 22
UFC Sao Paulo: Almeida vs Lewis Fight Preview
A quick look at the Almeida vs. Lewis odds reveals a clear favorite. Bovada is heavily favoring Almeida to win at UFC Sao Paulo, listing the Brazilian fighter at -500 odds on the moneyline — an implied win probability of 83.3%.
Nevertheless, the moneyline isn’t much of a surprise. Not only did Lewis take the fight on short notice, but Almeida is one of the hottest heavyweights on the planet. The favorite heads into Saturday’s clash on a 14-fight winning streak, having not lost since January 2018.
Almeida has decimated the competition over the last five years, boasting a 100% finish rate during his winning streak. He’s also 5-0 since making his UFC debut, finishing four of those opponents before the first round was even over.
On the flip side, winning consistently has been a struggle for Lewis.
The 38-year-old veteran has fought to a 2-4 record in his last six outings. Although he’s coming off a TKO victory over Marcos Rogerio de Lima in July, it’s worth noting that Lewis hasn’t won back-to-back fights in nearly three years.
The Cypress, TX native has had trouble surviving his opponents lately. After being finished five times in his first 33 fights, Lewis has been knocked out three times and submitted once in his most recent six.
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It’s going to be difficult for Lewis to get anything going come Saturday. Almeida only absorbs 0.3 significant strikes per minute and knows how to tire out his opponents, averaging 6.4 takedowns and 2.5 submissions per 15 minutes.
Lewis, meanwhile, could struggle with his 52% takedown defense rate. He’s susceptible to talented grapplers, highlighted by when he was taken down six times en route to a first-round submission loss to Sergey Spivak back in February.
In other words, if Lewis doesn’t find his footing early, it could be another quick loss for him.
UFC Sao Paulo: Almeida vs Lewis Betting Trends & Markets
While the Almeida vs. Lewis moneyline is a good way of discovering who the favorite is, it doesn’t explain how the fight could unfold. Fortunately, the rest of Bovada’s markets help in that regard.
For example, the sportsbook isn’t expecting a long fight. After all, Bovada favors that the UFC Sao Paulo main event won’t go the distance (-5000) while also leaning towards the Under (-325) on the 1.5-round total.
Nevertheless, this isn’t much of a surprise. Almeida has only gone the distance once (January 2018) while only six of Lewis’ 39 previous fights reached the round limited.
With a finish likely in the cards, Almeida is most likely to win via submission (-140) on Saturday. The gifted grappler has 12 career submission victories to his name and now gets to face Lewis, who’s been submitted twice since 2018.
If you’re looking to get more specific, Almeida is favored to win by first-round submission at +125 odds. Of his dozen submission wins, nine occurred in the opening frame.
UFC Sao Paulo: Almeida vs Lewis Prediction & Best Bet
I can’t bring myself to bet against Almeida at the moment. He’s on fire and isn’t showing any signs of slowing down — especially with the Brazilian crowd cheering him on. Meanwhile, Lewis’ best days are behind him, and taking this fight on short notice will magnify that.
As for the best Almeida vs. Lewis bet, I’m taking Almeida winning via first-round submission. Again, 75.0% of the favorite’s submission victories happened in Round 1.
With Almeida easily outclassing Lewis in the grappling department, I don’t see the main event lasting long.
Bet: Almeida via Submission in Round 1 (+125 on Bovada)
UFC Sao Paulo Information FAQ
When is UFC Sao Paulo?
- UFC Sao Paulo will take place on Saturday, Nov. 4, 2023.
Where is UFC Sao Paulo?
- UFC Sao Paulo will take place at Ginasio do Ibirapuera in Sao Paulo, Brazil.
What time does UFC Sao Paulo start?
- Preliminary Card Start Time: 6 p.m. ET
- Main Card Start Time: 9 p.m. ET
How can I watch UFC Sao Paulo?
- The UFC Sao Paulo prelims and main card can both be viewed on ESPN+.
How can I bet on UFC Sao Paulo?
- All of the top online sports betting sites will have UFC Sao Paulo odds, but here are some of the sites we recommend most for MMA betting enthusiasts.
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Devon is a Master of Journalism graduate who joined the sports betting world in 2020. His favorite leagues to cover are the NHL, NBA and NFL, and has a soft spot for fantasy football specifically. Outside of sports, he enjoys the finer things in life like pasta, live music and getting even more tattoos.
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