<p>Tonight, longtime UFC fighter Nate Diaz was expected to bow out of the promotion with a main event showdown against Khamzat Chimaev at UFC 279 in Las Vegas.</p>
<p>But Chimaev missed weight yesterday, and while Diaz will still be involved in the final fight of the night at T-Mobile Arena, he will now face Tony Ferguson instead. </p>
<p>Chimaev will now meet Kevin Holland, while Holland and Ferguson’s original opposition, Daniel Rodriguez and Li Jingliang, will face off.</p>
<p>We have also offered our thoughts on <a href="https://www.bettingnews.com/articles/mma/li-jingliang-daniel-rodriguez-ufc-279-fight-prediction-picks-odds-09102022/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Li Jingliang vs. Rodriguez</a> and will have a betting breakdown for the Chimaev vs. Holland bout, but here we take a look at the reshuffled main event.</p>
<h2 id="6a4lb">Nate Diaz vs. Tony Ferguson Fight Information and Betting Odds</h2>
<h3 id="29lel">Fight Information</h3>
<ul>
<li>Date: Saturday, September 10, 2022</li>
<li>Venue &amp; Location: T-Mobile Arena (Las Vegas, US)</li>
<li>Start Time: approximately 12:30 a.m. Eastern Time (9:30 p.m. local time)</li>
</ul>
<h3 id="8s0db">Nate Diaz vs. Tony Ferguson Betting Odds</h3>
<p><strong><em>Odds are from <a href="https://affiliates.bettingnews.com/register/bovada/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Bovada Sportsbook</a>.</em></strong></p>
<h4 id="jglr">Moneyline</h4>
<ul>
<li>Nate Diaz +105</li>
<li>Tony Ferguson -125</li>
</ul>
<h4 id="6el0u">Total Rounds Over/Under</h4>
<ul>
<li>Over 4.5 rounds (-130)</li>
<li>Under 4.5 rounds (+100)</li>
</ul>
<h2 id="eavov">Is Diaz a more likely winner now?</h2>
<p>Had the bout with Chimaev gone ahead as scheduled, Diaz would have been a heavy underdog.</p>
<p>Before the weight miss and the resulting shakeup, this is how the odds shook out at some of the top legal sports betting sites:</p>
<ul>
<li><a href="https://affiliates.bettingnews.com/register/betonline/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">BetOnline:</a> Khamzat Chimaev -1100/Nate Diaz +680</li>
<li><a href="https://affiliates.bettingnews.com/register/bovada/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Bovada Sportsbook:</a> Khamzat Chimaev -1000/Nate Diaz +650</li>
<li><a href="https://affiliates.bettingnews.com/register/betus/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">BetUS:</a> Khamzat Chimaev -1115/Nate Diaz +750</li>
<li><a href="https://affiliates.bettingnews.com/register/bmgm/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">BetMGM:</a> Khamzat Chimaev -1000/Nate Diaz +650</li>
</ul>
<p>If you have followed UFC for a long time, you would know that you can never count out Nate or his brother Nick.</p>
<p>But the reshuffle has clearly given Diaz a much more winnable fight just by looking at the odds for the bout. </p>
<p>Instead of having to face the undefeated Chimaev, he now gets Ferguson, whose most recent UFC win came before Diaz’s most recent UFC win.</p>
<p>That win for Diaz came by decision against Anthony Pettis at UFC 241 in Anaheim, California on August 17, 2019.</p>
<p>Since then, Diaz has fought only twice, a TKO loss to Jorge Masvidal at UFC 244 in November 2019 and a points loss to new welterweight champion Leon Edwards at UFC 263 in June 2021.</p>
<h2 id="1qgt7">El Cucuy knows time is against him</h2>
<p>Tony Ferguson is a household name in MMA circles, but at 38 years old, the American fighter from California knows his time is running out. </p>
<p>He is currently ranked at number 11 in the lightweight division, and he hasn’t won since defeating Donald Cerrone by TKO at UFC 238 in Chicago on June 8, 2019.</p>
<p>He enters the octagon on fight night with his recent form showing four defeats on the bounce with two KO losses and a pair of defeats on the scorecards. That suggests his career is on the decline, but a win in this bout could spark a resurgence for Ferguson.</p>
<p>If he is anywhere near his best, Ferguson should win this fight. The odds give him the edge for a reason. But Diaz will want to go out a winner, and the smart thinking is to back him to do just that.</p>
<p><strong>Nate Diaz vs. Tony Ferguson Prediction:</strong> Diaz to win</p>
<p><strong>Nate Diaz vs. Tony Ferguson Betting Pick:</strong> Nate Diaz win @ +105 (<a href="https://affiliates.bettingnews.com/register/bovada/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Bovada Sportsbook</a>)</p>
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Nate Diaz vs. Tony Ferguson UFC Betting: Will Diaz bow out with a win? cover

Nate Diaz vs. Tony Ferguson UFC Betting: Will Diaz bow out with a win?

Frank Monkhouse

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