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Prochazka vs Pereira Prediction, Odds & Best Bets | UFC 295: Expect a Classic at MSG
Written by: Devon Platana
Last Updated:
Read Time: 5 minutes
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UFC 295 is less than a week away, airing live from Madison Square Garden on Saturday, Nov. 11. On an absolutely loaded card, few matchups are bigger than the vacant light heavyweight championship main event between Jiri Prochazka and Alex Pereira.
Prochazka is back on the hunt for the light heavyweight gold after being forced to vacate the title due to injury last year. Meanwhile, Pereira is a former UFC Middleweight Champion, meaning he isn’t a stranger to the spotlight as he looks to dominate another division.
This betting preview is your one-stop shop for the UFC 295 main event, featuring the latest odds, a Prochazka vs Pereira prediction, and the best bets you can make on Saturday night.
UFC 295: Prochazka vs Pereira Betting Odds
UFC 295 odds courtesy of Bovada as of Saturday, Nov. 11 at 3:53 p.m. ET.
Prochazka vs Pereira Moneyline
- Jiri Prochazka (+105)
- Alex Pereira (-122)
Will Prochazka vs Pereira Go the Distance?
- Yes (+360)
- No (-600)
Prochazka vs Pereira Round Total
- Over 1.5 Rounds (-165)
- Under 1.5 Rounds (+125)
Prochazka vs Pereira Tale of the Tape
Jiri Prochazka — Alex Pereira
- Record: 29-3-1 — 8-2
- Height: 6’3” — 6’4”
- Reach: 80” — 79”
- Weight: 205 lbs — 205 lbs
- Age: 31 — 36
- Fighting Stance: Orthodox — Orthodox
- Knockouts: 25 — 6
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UFC 295: Prochazka vs Pereira Fight Preview
Oddsmakers are projecting the UFC 295 headlining act to be a close one. Pereira is Bovada’s slight moneyline favorite at -130 odds, which carry an implied win probability of just 56.5%.
Pereira took the UFC by storm beginning in 2020, fighting to a 4-0 record in his first four fights. Three of those victories came via KO/TKO, but none were bigger than the fifth-round knockout blow that won him the middleweight championship from Israel Adesanya at UFC 281.
Unfortunately, Pereira’s success was short-lived. He met Adesanya for a rematch at UFC 287 back in April, losing by a second-round knockout. Nevertheless, Pereira has rebounded since then, defeating Jan Blachowicz via split decision in “Hands of Stone’s” light heavyweight debut over the summer.
But despite everything that Pereira has going for him, it’s hard to go against Prochazka — the man who never lost the UFC Light Heavyweight title in the first place.
Before being sidelined due to injury, Prochazka was on fire. The dominant Czech fighter was on a 13-fight winning streak before tragedy struck, which involved finishing 12 of those opponents (12 via KO/TKO, 1 via submission). In fact, only two of those fights even lasted longer than the second round.
And although he only has three UFC fights under his belt, Prochazka made the most of them. He scored back-to-back second-round KO wins over Volkan Oezdemir and Dominick Reyes, earning ‘performance of the night honors’ in both, before submitting Glover Teixeira in what was deemed the 2022 Fight of the Year.
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Statistically, Prochazka and Pereira are even for the most part. While Prochazka lands more significant strikes per minute (5.77 vs. 5.11), Pereira absorbs fewer blows on average (3.70 vs. 5.40).
On the flip side, Prochazka owns the slight grappling advantage with 0.38 takedowns and 0.4 submissions per 15 minutes. It’s worth noting that Pereira was taken down three times and put in two submission holds in his victory over Blachowicz.
UFC 295: Prochazka vs Pereira Betting Trends
- Prochazka is 13-0 in his last 13 fights.
- Pereira is 8-1 in his last nine fights.
- Prochazka has a finish rate of 96.6%.
- Pereira has a finish rate of 75.0%.
- Prochazka is 1-0 in his only fight as the underdog.
- Pereira is 3-0 in his last three fights as the favorite.
- This fight marks Prochazka’s second bout on U.S. soil.
- Pereira is 2-0 in his career at Madison Square Garden.
- Prochazka has an average fight time of 13:17.
- Pereira has an average fight time of 11:33.
UFC 295: Prochazka vs Pereira Prediction & Best Bet
I truly think this fight could go either way. Prochazka is one of the most dominant light heavyweights on the planet while Pereira’s striking is as dangerous as anyone else. I wouldn’t be surprised if this turns into a fight-of-the-year candidate.
Having said that, I’m taking Pereira to win at UFC 295. I like Prochazka, but this is a tough fight to have in his return. He’s coming back from a 17-month absence, which could make handling Pereira’s non-stop motor that much more difficult.
With 31 knockouts between these men, don’t be surprised if Pereira finds a way to finish his rusty foe.
Prochazka vs Pereira Prediction: Pereira ML (-130 on Bovada) or Pereira via KO/TKO (+105 on Bovada)
UFC 295 Preview FAQ
When is UFC 295?
- UFC 295 will take place on Saturday, Nov. 11, 2023.
Where is UFC 295?
- UFC 295 will take place at Madison Square Garden in New York City, New York.
What time does UFC 295 start?
- Early Prelims Start: 6 p.m. ET
- Preliminary Card Start Time: 8 p.m. ET
- Main Card Start Time: 10 p.m. ET
How can I watch UFC 295?
- Early Prelims Channel: ESPN+
- Preliminary Card Channel: ESPNN, ESPN+
- Main Card Channel: ESPN+, PPV Providers
How can I bet on UFC 295?
- All of the top online sports betting sites will have UFC 295 odds, but here are some of the sites we recommend most for MMA betting enthusiasts.
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Devon is a Master of Journalism graduate who joined the sports betting world in 2020. His favorite leagues to cover are the NHL, NBA and NFL, and has a soft spot for fantasy football specifically. Outside of sports, he enjoys the finer things in life like pasta, live music and getting even more tattoos.
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