Jon Jones vs Ciryl Gane UFC 285 Prediction & Picks: Can Jones Capture Gold in MMA Return?

MMA enthusiasts are pumped now that UFC 285 is less than a week away. The event goes down at T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas, NV on Saturday, March 4 and is headlined by a massive main event between Jon Jones and Ciryl Gane for the vacant UFC Heavyweight Championship.

An artist at work when he's in the Octagon ?

The ? is back Saturday night at #UFC285!! pic.twitter.com/bH7JD4L9Iy

— UFC (@ufc) February 28, 2023

This fight marks Jones’ return to the octagon after a three-year absence. He’s always fought as a light heavyweight in the back and will likely have his hands full with Gane, who’s a former interim UFC Heavyweight Champion. Needless to say, this is a fight that mixed martial arts fans won’t want to miss.

There’s a lot to consider before Jones and Gane go head-to-head — especially from a betting perspective. Fortunately, Betting News has you covered with the UFC 285 main event’s latest odds, as well as a prediction and the best bets for the fight.

UFC 285: Jones vs Gane Fight Odds (as of Wednesday, March 1)

Odds are via our top reviewed and recommended sportsbooks.

BetOnline Sportsbook

• Jon Jones -166
• Ciryl Gane +130

Bovada Sportsbook

• Jon Jones -170
• Ciryl Gane +145

BetUS

• Jon Jones -167
• Ciryl Gane +140

BetMGM

• Jon Jones -165
• Ciryl Gane +135

Jones Favored in UFC Return

Despite his absence from the octagon, Jones heads into UFC 285 as the unanimous favorite across all four highlighted sportsbooks. His shortest odds to capture the heavyweight gold sit at -170 on Bovada Sportsbook, carrying an implied probability of 63.0%.

Jones made a name for himself by being one of the most ferocious fighters that the sport has ever seen. He’s racked up 26 victories over 28 outings over his MMA career with his only loss coming by disqualification due to an illegal elbow back in 2009.

He also has a no-contest under his belt after testing positive for turinabol metabolite following what would’ve been a KO win over Daniel Cormier at UFC 214.

Despite his controversies, you can’t ignore everything that Jones has done. He’s a two-time UFC Light Heavyweight Champion and still holds the record for the longest reign in the title’s history at 1,501 days. He also holds the record for the longest unbeaten streak in company history, having gone 18 consecutive matchups without a loss.

Jones can also win his fights in several ways. On top of knocking out 10 of his previous opponents, he’s also submitted six foes and has won 10 times by decision. In fact, his last three outings were won by some kind of decision, including a unanimous decision win over Dominick Reyes in his last outing on Feb. 8, 2020.

Just incase you needed reminding of how devastating Jon Jones can be… ?

? Watch Jones vs Gane at #UFC285 this Saturday!! pic.twitter.com/nSQ46O7OHi

— UFC Europe (@UFCEurope) March 1, 2023

Nevertheless, Jones won’t have an easy time with a fighter like Gane. The 32-year-old Frenchman might not have the experience that Jones does, but he has been incredibly dominant since arriving to the UFC in 2019.

Since joining the promotion, Gane has gone 8-1 with his only loss coming against Francis Ngannou at UFC 270. Now that Ngannou has departed the UFC, Gane has the perfect opportunity to avenge that loss by capturing the vacant heavyweight gold.

Gane has also beaten some impressive opponents over his career and has finished off the likes of Tai Tuivasa, Derrick Lewis and Junior dos Santos. Defeating Jones is a completely different challenge, but if anyone can handle it, it’s Gane.

It’s going to be a long night for “Bon Gamin,” however, the combination of Gane’s heavyweight experience and Jones having not fought for three years means an upset is a real possibility.

UFC 285 Betting Markets & Trends for Jones vs Gane

While there’s some value that comes with sticking to moneyline bets, BetOnline Sportsbook offers additional Jones vs Gane markets worth investigating ahead of UFC 285.

When it comes to method of victory betting, Jones is favored to win the UFC 285 main event by points at +180 odds. He’s currently a perfect 10-0 when his fights have gone the distance and, as mentioned before, he’s won his last three fights by decision (two unanimous, one split).

As for Gane, his top victory method is also to win by points, albeit at +340 odds. While he’s won three times by points, his only career loss came by unanimous decision.

Speaking of which, BetOnline Sportsbook is also favoring that the fight will go the distance at -122 odds. For reference, 33.3% of Gane’s career fights have done the distance while 35.7% of Jones have headed to the judges’ table.

If you think the main event ends before Round 5, method and combo betting might be for you. If that’s the case, Jones is favored to win the fight by first-round knockout at +1400 odds. Meanwhile, Gane isn’t too far behind with his top combo option also being to win by KO/TKO in Round 1 at +1500.

Jones vs Gane UFC 285 Fight Prediction

Though Jones has never lost a fight outside of his DQ loss, I’m siding with the underdog at UFC 285. Gane has fought more recently than Jones, has held heavyweight gold before and knows how to take a hit. He also holds the striking advantage, which should help in the event that this fight goes the distance.

Keeping that in mind, I recommend backing Gane on the moneyline (Bovada Sportsbook has the best odds at +145). On top of that, I do see this fight reaching the time limit. Both Jones and Gane have great endurance and should be able to hang with each other. That’s why backing the fight to go the distance at -122 odds on BetOnline is another great betting option.

UFC 285 Event Details

When is UFC 285?

UFC 285 will take place on Saturday, March 4, 2023.

Where is UFC 285?

UFC 285 will take place at the T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas, Nevada.

What time does UFC 285 start?

• UFC 285 Early Prelims Start Time: 6:15 p.m. ET
• UFC 285 Prelims Start Time: 8 p.m. ET
• Start Time of UFC 285’s Main Card: 10 p.m. ET

How can I watch UFC 285?

The early prelims will be available on UFC Fight Pass, while the prelims will be available on both ESPN and ESPN+, and the main card will be available via pay-per-view (which can be ordered through the ESPN+ app).