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Gilbert Burns vs Jorge Masvidal Prediction, Odds & Picks for UFC 287: Will Masvidal’s Slump End?
Written by: Devon Platana
Last Updated:
Read Time: 5 minutes
mma
The biggest MMA stars on the planet are taking over Miami-Dade Arena in Miami, Florida this weekend for UFC 287. Saturday’s card is shaping up to be stacked, featuring a huge co-main event between two former UFC Welterweight title challengers in Gilbert Burns and Jorge Masvidal.
A victory for either man would help them rise up the division rankings. Burns heads into Miami as the No. 5 welterweight in the promotion, whereas Masvidal could use the boost as he sits at No. 11. Both men would still have a ways to go before sniffing gold again, but a victory in Miami would be the first step on that path.
It shouldn’t come as a shock that there are several Burns vs. Masvidal betting opportunities worth considering. Here’s a look at the latest odds from four different sportsbooks for the UFC 287 co-main event, as well as a prediction and the best bet(s) for the fight.
Gilbert Burns vs. Jorge Masvidal — Tale of the Tape
Gilbert Burns — Jorge Masvidal
- Record: 21-5 — 35-16
- Height: 5’10” — 5’11”
- Reach: 71” — 74”
- Weight: 170lbs — 170lbs
- Age: 36 — 38
- Fighting Stance: Orthodox — Orthodox
- Knockouts: 6 — 16
UFC 287: Burns vs. Masvidal Fight Odds (as of Wednesday, April 5)
Odds are via our top reviewed and recommended sportsbooks.
BetOnline Sportsbook
- Gilbert Burns -520
- Jorge Masvidal +350
Bovada Sportsbook
- Gilbert Burns -500
- Jorge Masvidal +380
BetUS
- Gilbert Burns -500
- Jorge Masvidal +370
BetMGM
- Gilbert Burns -500
- Jorge Masvidal +360
Oddsmakers Heavily Favor Burns at UFC 287
There’s no doubt who oddsmakers see as the probable victor this weekend. After all, Burns is the unanimous favorite according to the four highlighted sportsbooks ahead of UFC 287. His average of -502 odds across the sources carry an implied win probability of 83.4%.
Burns’ recent history has been somewhat of a mixed bag. After failing to beat Kamaru Usman for the UFC Welterweight Championship at UFC 258 (a loss that ended the challenger’s six-fight winning streak), Burns rebounded with a unanimous decision win over Stephen Thompson.
Unfortunately, Burns’ momentum was cut short as he lost unanimously by points to Khamzat Chimaev nine months later. “Durinho” didn’t let that loss get to him, though. He rebounded in impressive fashion, submitting Neil Magny with an arm-triangle choke in the first round of their fight at UFC 283.
Now, it’s up to Burns to prove that he can string together consecutive wins again.
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On the other side, Jorge Masvidal has been trending in the wrong direction. The owner of the fastest knockout win in UFC history hasn’t tasted victory in nearly four years, having lost each of his last three fights.
Masvidal’s first loss came when he challenged Usman for the welterweight championship at UFC 251, only to lose by unanimous decision. The Miami native challenged again for the gold at UFC 261 but fell to Usman via second-round knockout.
Masvidal then went the distance with Colby Covington at UFC 272, but couldn’t get the job done, ultimately losing by unanimous decision once again.
It’s now the first time in his career that the 38-year-old must deal with a three-fight skid. He does have the benefit of UFC 287 being in his hometown, so it’ll be interesting to see if a pro-Masvidal crowd gives him a boost.
UFC 287 Betting Markets & Trends for Burns vs. Masvidal
With the odds being as lopsided as they were, there isn’t much value on the moneyline outside of a Masvidal upset. Fortunately, BetOnline Sportsbook has other markets worth considering for the UFC 287 co-main event.
For starters, Burns is favored to win by points at +160 odds. This makes sense considering how five of his last eight fives have gone the distance while two of Masvidal’s last three have done so. Burns also has a 66.7% winning percentage when his bouts reach the time limit, whereas Masvidal has a 58.6% success rate in that regard.
Having said that, BetOnline favors that this fight won’t go the distance at -152 odds.
When it comes to Masvidal, his top method of victory is to win by KO/TKO at +700. The talented striker has 16 knockout victories to his name and while Burns is tough, the odds-on favorite has been knocked out twice in his career.
If you think this fight will feature a finish, the method & round combo market is worth considering. Here, Burns is favored to win by first-round submission at +550 odds. He holds nine career submission victories to his name, picking seven of them up in Round 1. Fortunately for him, Masvidal has been submitted in the first round before.
Speaking of Masvidal, his top combo bet is winning by first-round knockout at +1600. Of his 19 career KO/TKO wins, eight have taken place in the first frame.
Burns vs. Masvidal UFC 287 Fight Prediction
With Masvidal on the longest losing streak of his career, I have to side with Burns at UFC 287. Burns has more momentum behind him and is coming off an impressive win over Magny. Besides, it’s truly starting to look like Masvidal’s best days are behind him. He’ll come out swinging, but Burns will weather the storm and eventually outlast the hometown hero.
When it comes to the best bet, I’m going with Burns winning this fight by points at +160 odds on BetOnline. He isn’t a stranger to going the distance and has a better winning percentage in that scenario than Masvidal, who’s picked up four of his last five losses by points. Both men are decent at avoiding being finished, which is why it’s likelier that Burns gets the job done with help from the judges’ table.
UFC 287 Event Details
When is UFC 287?
UFC 287 will take place on Saturday, April 8, 2023.
Where is UFC 287?
UFC 287 will take place at the Miami-Dade Arena in Miami, Florida.
What time does UFC 287 start?
- UFC 287 Early Prelims Start Time: 6 p.m. ET
- UFC 287 Prelims Start Time: 8 p.m. ET
- Start Time of UFC 287’s Main Card: 10 p.m. ET
How can I watch UFC 287?
The early prelims will be available on UFC Fight Pass, while the prelims will be available on both ESPN and ESPN+, and the main card will be available via pay-per-view (which can be ordered through the ESPN+ app).
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Devon is a Master of Journalism graduate who joined the sports betting world in 2020. His favorite leagues to cover are the NHL, NBA and NFL, and has a soft spot for fantasy football specifically. Outside of sports, he enjoys the finer things in life like pasta, live music and getting even more tattoos.
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