Kevin Holland vs Santiago Ponzinibbio Prediction, Odds & Picks for UFC 287: Welterweights Go the Distance

The biggest MMA stars today are set to take over Miami, FL on Saturday for UFC 287. The star-studded event features several main card bouts that combat sports lovers won’t want to miss, including a welterweight collision between Kevin Holland and Santiago Ponzinibbio.

Holland vs. Ponzinibbio pic.twitter.com/WLzMCtPw08

— MMA Mania (@mmamania) April 6, 2023

Both Holland and Ponzinibbio are looking to crack the welterweight division rankings with a victory at Miami-Dade Arena. Considering how neither man has challenged for the gold before, it’ll be interesting to see who becomes one step closer to that goal.

With so much to take in before UFC 287, your friends at Betting News have you covered. Here’s a look at the latest Holland vs. Ponzinibbio odds, as well as a prediction and the best bet(s) for the upcoming showdown.

Kevin Holland vs. Santiago Ponzinibbio — Tale of the Tape

Kevin Holland — Santiago Ponzinibbio

• Record: 23-9, 1NC — 29-6
• Height: 6’3” — 6’0”
• Reach: 81” — 73”
• Weight: 170lbs — 170lbs
• Age: 30 — 36
• Fighting Stance: Orthodox — Orthodox
• Knockouts: 13 — 16

UFC 287: Holland vs. Ponzinibbio Fight Odds (as of Friday, April 7)

Odds are via our top reviewed and recommended sportsbooks.

BetOnline Sportsbook

• Kevin Holland -250
• Santiago Ponzinibbio +198

Bovada Sportsbook

• Kevin Holland -260
• Santiago Ponzinibbio +210

BetUS

• Kevin Holland -250
• Santiago Ponzinibbio +195

BetMGM

• Kevin Holland -250
• Santiago Ponzinibbio +200

Holland Favored to Bounce Back at UFC 287

Although nothing is guaranteed, the highlighted sportsbooks are in agreement that Holland is the clear-cut favorite. The eight-year veteran carries an average of -253 odds across the four sources, which translates to an implied win probability of 71.7%.

Holland was a busy fighter in 2022. He opened the year with a TKO win over Alex Oliveira at UFC 272 before submitting Tim Means just three months later. Unfortunately, that’s where “Trailblazer’s” luck ran out.

Holland found himself submitting to a D’Arce choke just 2:13 into his fight with Khamzat Chimaev at UFC 279. He tried to rebound less than three months later against Stephen Thompson but ultimately fell to a fourth-round knockout.

Although he’s the favorite, rebounding this weekend won’t be easy for Holland. After all, Ponzinibbio is a tough fighter who has 16 knockout victories to his name.

Like Holland, the 36-year-old Argentinian has had his fair share of ups and downs. After an impressive seven-fight winning streak from 2015 to 2018, Ponzinibbio went on a 1-3 stretch beginning in January 2021. He suffered a first-round KO loss to Li Jingliang during that span while also losing twice by split decision.

Having said that, Ponzinibbio managed to get some momentum back in his latest outing. He went head-to-head with Alex Morono at UFC 282 in a catchweight (180 lbs) fight, winning by knockout in Round 3. The veteran fighter also earned ‘performance of the night’ honors for his effort.

Only time will tell if Ponzinibbio can start another winning streak with an upset effort this weekend.

UFC 287 Betting Markets & Trends for Holland vs. Ponzinibbio

If you’re looking for more Holland vs. Ponzinibbio markets aside from the moneyline, no need to worry. Here’s a look at some of the more intriguing options available on BetOnline Sportsbook ahead of UFC 287.

BetOnline lists Holland winning by points as the likeliest method of victory at +170 odds. Having said that, he only has a 4-5 all-time record when his fights go the distance. He also hasn’t won by decision in any of his last five fights.

As for Ponzinibbio, his most likely method of victory is tied between winning by points and KO/TKO at +550. For reference, he’s 16 fights by knockout and seven fights by decision. Having said that, he’s only won once by each method in his last five fights.

Despite winning by points being among both fighters’ top methods of victory, BetOnline favors that this fight won’t go the distance -132 odds.

Assuming that’s the case, Holland is favored to by first-round knockout at +500 odds. Of his 13 career knockouts, seven have occurred in the opening frame. Nevertheless, he hasn’t KO’d an opponent in Round 1 in nearly three years.

Meanwhile, Ponzinibbio’s top method & combo bet is also to win via first-round KO/TKO at +1600. The 36-year-old veteran has accomplished the feat eight times over his career but hasn’t done so in any of his previous seven fights.

Holland vs. Ponzinibbio UFC 287 Fight Prediction

I’m going with the oddsmakers here and backing Holland to emerge victorious in Miami. He may have lost back-to-back outings, but both those losses came against Chimaev and Thompson — two of the seven best fighters in the welterweight division. Ponzinibbio isn’t used to that level of competition and will falter against an opponent who’s a more accurate striker with better defense as well.

Keeping that in mind, I’m going with Holland winning by points at +170 odds as the best bet. Ponzinibbio is a tough fighter who’s only been finished once in his previous 12 fights. Considering how Holland has had issues finishing his latest opponents, I see it being more likely that his game plan is to outlast the opposition, ultimately winning by points when the dust settles.

UFC 287 Event Details

When is UFC 287?

UFC 287 will take place on Saturday, April 8, 2023.

Where is UFC 287?

UFC 287 will take place at the Miami-Dade Arena in Miami, Florida.

What time does UFC 287 start?

• UFC 287 Early Prelims Start Time: 6 p.m. ET
• UFC 287 Prelims Start Time: 8 p.m. ET
• Start Time of UFC 287’s Main Card: 10 p.m. ET

How can I watch UFC 287?

The early prelims will be available on UFC Fight Pass, while the prelims will be available on both ESPN and ESPN+, and the main card will be available via pay-per-view (which can be ordered through the ESPN+ app).

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