UFC 289: Amanda Nunes vs Irene Aldana Fight Prediction, Odds & Picks

UFC 289 is just a few days away from taking over Rogers Place in Vancouver, British Columbia. Although the night is jam-packed with a variety of promising MMA showdowns, the majority of eyes are on the main event as Amanda Nunes defends the UFC Women’s Bantamweight Championship against Irene Aldana.

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— UFC (@ufc) June 5, 2023

Nunes heads into the weekend as one of the most dominant forces that MMA has seen, highlighted by her holding the featherweight championship in addition to the bantamweight gold.

Meanwhile, Aldana — a former Invicta FC Bantamweight Championship challenger — has never challenged for gold at the UFC level. In other words, this is the biggest fight of her career and it’ll be interesting to see how she handles the pressure.

Additionally, Nunes vs. Aldana doesn’t have any shortage of betting opportunities. Here’s a look at the latest odds for the UFC 289 main event from a handful of reputable sportsbooks, as well as a prediction and the best bet(s) for the fight.

Nunes vs Aldana— Tale of the Tape

Amanda Nunes — Irene Aldana

• Record: 22-5 — 14-6
• Height: 5’8” — 5’9”
• Reach: 69” — 68”
• Weight: 135lbs — 135lbs
• Age: 35 — 35
• Fighting Stance: Orthodox — Orthodox
• Knockouts: 13 — 8

UFC 289: Nunes vs Aldana Fight Odds (as of Tuesday, June 6)

Odds are via our top reviewed and recommended sportsbooks.

BetOnline Sportsbook

• Amanda Nunes -350
• Irene Aldana +255

Bovada Sportsbook

• Amanda Nunes -330
• Irene Aldana +260

BetUS

• Amanda Nunes -315
• Irene Aldana +250

BetMGM

• Amanda Nunes -350
• Irene Aldana +260

Nunes vs Aldana Fighter History

With how dominant she’s been, it’s far from shocking to see Nunes as the unanimous favorite on all four highlighted sportsbooks. She’s available at an average of -336 odds across the four sources, translating to a 77.1% win probability that she retains the women’s bantamweight championship at UFC 289.

Since March 2015, the “Lioness” has been on a terrific run, going 13-1 over her last 14 fights. She’s taken down some of the best women that the sport has ever seen, including names like Holly Holm, Cris Cyborg, Ronda Rousey, Raquel Pennington, and more.

What’s even more impressive is that Nunes finished her opponents in eight of those victories, winning five times by KO/TKO and three times by submission. Of those finishes, seven came within the opening round.

Nunes looked unbeatable for years, winning 12 consecutive matchups before submitting to Julianna Pena at UFC 269, losing the bantamweight gold in the process. Although some fighters would be mentally ruined by a loss like that, Nunes rebounded by regaining her title by defeating Pena by unanimous decision at UFC 277.

In fact, Nunes was supposed to defend the UFC Women’s Bantamweight Championship against Pena this weekend before the former champion pulled out due to a rib injury. Fast forward to this week and Aldana — the No. 5 fighter in the division — is challenging for the championship instead.

After beginning her UFC career with back-to-back losses, Aldana has turned things around. The 35-year-old veteran has won seven of her last nine matchups. Her first four victories came by points, however, she’s since won three of her last four fights by knockout.

Time will tell if Aldana can match Nunes blow-for-blow. While the challenger averages more significant strikes per minute than the champion (5.39 vs. 4.40), Nunes has the accuracy advantage (51% vs. 39%). Furthermore, Aldana also absorbs a lot more significant blows per minute (5.71) than her opponent (2.75).

The grappling advantage also goes to Nunes, who averages 2.61 takedowns and 0.8 submissions per 15 minutes. Yes, Aldana has an 81% takedown defense rate, but there’s no telling if she can handle Nunes’ onslaught through all five rounds.

UFC 289 Betting Markets & Trends for Nunes vs Aldana

With the odds being heavily in Nunes’ favor, an outright bet doesn’t provide the best value. Fortunately, BetOnline Sportsbook carries a wide variety of UFC 289 markets that provide much more value.

For starters, BetOnline doesn’t think that this fight will last all five rounds, favoring that it won’t go the distance at -270 odds. Having said that, three of Nunes’ last five fights have gone the distance while only one of Aldana’s previous four has.

The sportsbook lists Nunes winning by KO/TKO as the top method of victory at +125 odds. Thirteen of her 22 all-time victories have come by knockout, however, she hasn’t won by this method since July 2019 — a span of five fights.

Meanwhile, Aldana’s top victory method is also winning by KO/TKO, albeit, at +600 odds. Again, she’s knocked out three of her past four opponents and has eight knockout wins over her 11-year career. It won’t be easy for Aldana to knock out Nunes, though, since the latter hasn’t been KO’d in nearly nine years.

For more value, the method + round combo market favors Nunes to win by KO/TKO in Round 1 (+410), which is something she’s done nine times. On the flip side, Aldana’s top betting option here is to win by first-round knockout at +2000. For reference, six of her eight knockout victories occurred in the opening round.

Nunes vs Aldana UFC 289 Fight Prediction

Underdog stories are fun, but this isn’t a fight you want to overthink. Nunes is one of the all-time greats while Aldana has only had a little over one month to train for this fight. With the striking and grappling advantages on her side, Nunes will add another successful championship defense to her name at UFC 289.

As for the best bet, let’s go with Nunes winning by KO/TKO at +125 odds. She’s the better/more accurate striker and I just don’t see a world where Aldana can match her barrage. It doesn’t help that the challenger only has two fights that’ve gone longer than three rounds under her belt.

All it’ll take is one perfectly-placed blow for Nunes to leave Aldana flat on her back.

UFC 289 Event Details

When is UFC 289?

UFC 289 will take place on Saturday, June 10, 2023.

Where is UFC 289?

UFC 289 will take place at Rogers Place in Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada.

What time does UFC 289 start?

• UFC 289 Early Prelims Card: 7 p.m. ET
• UFC 289 Preliminary Card Start Time: 8 p.m. ET
• Start Time of UFC 289’s Main Card: 10 p.m. ET

How can I watch UFC 289?

The early prelims action can be viewed through the UFC Fight Pass. Following that, the UFC 289 preliminary card airs on both ESPN and ESPN+ before the main card takes place on ESPN+ and through pay-per-view providers.

Other UFC 289 Stories on Betting News

• UFC 289 Full Card Preview, Odds, and Schedule