UFC 290: Alexander Volkanovski vs Yair Rodriguez Fight Prediction, Odds & Picks

UFC 290 is quickly approaching as the world’s biggest MMA promotion is set to take over T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas, Nevada on Saturday, July 8. There is no shortage of big-name bouts this weekend, especially when it comes to the massive main event as Alexander Volkanovski and Yair Rodriguez are set to go head-to-head to crown a unified UFC Featherweight Champion.

There can be only one ??

Alexander Volkanovski ? Yair Rodriguez, who you got?#UFC290 | Saturday 1AM | BT Sport 1 pic.twitter.com/wxvR6jwDqy

— UFC on BT Sport (@btsportufc) July 5, 2023

Volkanovski became the featherweight champion in December 2019, but the division needed a new interim titleholder once he stepped up a class to challenge Islam Makhachev for the UFC Lightweight Championship at UFC 284. Rodriguez stepped up to the plate and became the interim UFC Featherweight Champion and now looks to legitimize his reign in Sin City.

Betting News has put together a Volkanovski vs. Rodriguez preview, ranging from each fighter’s history to the latest betting odds (via BetOnline) and best bets for the UFC 290 main event.

Volkanovski vs Rodriguez— Tale of the Tape

Alexander Volkanovski — Yair Rodriguez

• Record: 25-2 — 15-3, 1NC
• Height: 5’6” — 5’11”
• Reach: 71” — 71”
• Weight: 145lbs — 145lbs
• Age: 34 — 30
• Fighting Stance: Orthodox — Orthodox
• Knockouts: 12 — 5

UFC 290: Volkanovski vs Rodriguez Odds (as of Wednesday, July 5 at 8:33 a.m.)

Moneyline

• Alexander Volkanovski -400
• Yair Rodriguez +300

Will the Fight Go the Distance?

• No -115
• Yes -115

Round Total

• Over 4.5 Rounds (-125)
• Under 4.5 Rounds (-105)

Volkanovski vs Rodriguez Fighter History

With how dominant his career has been, it’s not difficult to see why Volkanovski is the odds-on favorite to become the unified UFC Featherweight Champion. The 34-year-old veteran’s -400 moneyline odds to win at UFC 290 carry an implied win probability of 80.0%.

Before his loss to Makhachev, Volkanovski was piling up wins left and right. “Alexander The Great” was on a 22-fight winning streak before that loss, which included a perfect 12-0 record to begin his UFC career. Furthermore, Volkanovski has never lost as a featherweight throughout his 11-year career.

Having said that, it’s been a year since Volkanovski last fought at this weight class. His most recent featherweight scrap came when he successfully defended the title against Max Holloway at UFC 276 in the third part of their trilogy, ultimately winning by unanimous decision.

Meanwhile, Rodriguez has also been piling up an impressive résumé. He’s gone 10-2 with a no-contest in 13 UFC fights while also being deemed the ‘performer of the night’ four times over that span.

After TKO’ing Brian Ortega in the main event of UFC on ABC 3, Rodriguez earned himself the aforementioned interim featherweight title shot. He didn’t waste any time capturing his first championship, submitting Josh Emmett with a triangle choke in the second round to seal the deal.

Standing five inches taller than his opponent, it’s clear that Rodriguez has the physical advantage in the UFC 290 main event. At the same time, Volkanovski has the edge in numerous statistical categories, which you can see below.

• Significant strikes landed per minute: Volkanovski: 6.35 | Rodriguez: 4.78
• Striking accuracy: Volkanovski: 56% | Rodriguez: 46%
• Takedowns per 15 minutes: Volkanovski: 1.52 | Rodriguez: 0.79
• Takedown defense: Volkanovski: 69% | Rodriguez: 63%

Needless to say, it could be a long night for the underdog if Volkanovski comes out hot.

UFC 290 Betting Trends and Markets for Volkanovski vs Rodriguez

With how lopsided the odds are ahead of the UFC 290 headlining act, there isn’t much value to be had unless Rodriguez pulls off an upset. Fortunately, BetOnline has a variety of markets containing more value than an outright moneyline bet.

For example, BetOnline is favoring Volkanovski to win by points at +125 odds. For starters, it makes sense considering that Rodriguez hasn’t been finished in six years. Secondly, Volkanovski is 10-1 when his fights have been decided by points.

As for the underdog, Rodriguez’s top victory method is winning by KO/TKO or DQ at +500 odds. While Volkanovski has been knocked out before, that occurrence happened way back at Australian FC 5 in 2013. Furthermore, Rodriguez also only has one knockout victory in his last five outings.

If the fight ends within the distance, BetOnline is favoring Volkanovski to win at +160 odds. Nevertheless, that isn’t the favored bet in this market. Instead, that distinction belongs to the fight going the distance at -115 odds.

Both men have seen their fair share of lengthy bouts. Nine of Volkanovski’s previous 12 fights have gone the distance while the same occurred in six of Rodriguez’s last 13.

UFC 290: Volkanovski vs Rodriguez Fight Prediction

Although Rodriguez impressed MMA fans by becoming interim champion, his fun in the sun ends in Sin City. Volkanovski is a beast that has dominated the featherweight division and his latest setback won’t stop him from returning to that form. He has the striking and grappling advantages in this fight while also knowing how to handle the pressure that comes in championship bouts.

Even if he starts off strong, Rodriguez will eventually crumble under the pressure.

As for the best bet, I’m comfortable taking Volkanovski to win by points at +125 odds. Rodriguez might be the huge underdog, but he’s tough to finish and knows how to survive. Having said that, his cardio isn’t as good as Volkanovski’s, meaning he’s bound to make mistakes as the fight goes on.

Eventually, Volkanovski will score enough points to be crowned the unified featherweight champion in the end.

UFC 290 Event Details

When is UFC 290?

UFC 290 will take place on Saturday, July 8, 2023.

Where is UFC 290?

UFC 290 will take place at T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas, Nevada.

What time does UFC 290 start?

• UFC 290 Early Prelims Start Time: 6 p.m. ET
• UFC 290 Preliminary Card Start Time: 8 p.m. ET
• Start Time of UFC 290’s Main Card: 10 p.m. ET

How can I watch UFC 290?

Fans wanting to check out the early prelims can do so exclusively with the UFC Fight Pass. The UFC 290 preliminary action can then be viewed on both ESPN and ABC while the main card is available on ESPN+ and pay-per-view providers across North America.

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