UFC 290 Preliminary Card & Early Prelims Prediction and Best Bets: Where’s the Best Early Value?

UFC 290 is just over two days away, bringing another exciting night of MMA action to Las Vegas, Nevada. While a large portion of UFC fans have their sights set on the main card, headlined by a featherweight championship match between Alexander Volkanovski and Yair Rodriguez, the early cards have intriguing bouts worth keeping an eye on.

For the undisputed throne ?@AlexVolkanovski meets @PanteraUFC goes down SATURDAY at #UFC290!! pic.twitter.com/ZEc7N76qag

— UFC (@ufc) July 5, 2023

As usual, Betting News has gathered the latest odds for all of the UFC 290 preliminary card and early prelims fights, along with an expert prediction for each matchup.

UFC 290 Preliminary Card Prediction (Odds as of Wednesday, July 5)

The UFC 290 odds listed below are as of 8:13 p.m. on Wednesday, July 5 via BetOnline.

Welterweight: Robbie Lawler (+220) vs. Niko Price (-260)

The UFC 290 preliminary card is highlighted by a welterweight showdown between former welterweight champion Robbie Lawler (29-16, 1NC) and Niko Price (15-6, 2NC). Lawler has struggled recently, going 1-5 in his last six fights while Price is coming off a TKO loss to Philip Rowe back in December.

Even though Lawler has the experience advantage, I’m taking Price to win this one. Lawler has been outstruck by an average of 55.5 strikes in his last four fights and is now going up against Price, who lands 5.48 significant strikes per minute with 42% accuracy.

Considering how Lawler is now 41 and coming off a TKO loss of his own, I won’t be shocked if the favorite wins this one by knockout.

Best Bet: Niko Price by KO/TKO (+115)

Welterweight: Jack Della Maddalena (-900) vs. Josiah Harrell (+600)

Jack Della Maddalena (14-2) has been flawless in the UFC, improving to 5-0 with a first-round submission win against Randy Brown at UFC 284. Meanwhile, Josiah Harrell (7-0) is set to make his debut after winning his last three bouts by TKO.

It’s worth noting that Della Maddalena was supposed to face Sean Brady, who had to withdraw from the fight due to a shoulder injury.

All good things must come to an end, meaning Harrell will suffer his first loss this weekend. Della Maddalena is on another level right now, having finished his last four opponents. He’s dealing out an absurd 8.27 significant strikes landed per minute (SLpM) while also boasting a 68% strike defense rate. As much as Harrell tries, Della Maddalena can and will handle anything thrown his way.

For optimal value, we’ll go with Della Maddalena winning via first-round knockout.

Best Bet: Jack Della Maddalena by KO/TKO in Round 1 (-185)

Women’s Strawweight: Yazmin Jauregui (-400) vs. Denise Gomes (+300)

The UFC 290 preliminary card also features Yazmin Jauregui (10-0) and Denise Gomes (7-2) going head-to-head in a strawweight showdown. Jauregui remained undefeated with a knockout win over Istela Nunes seven months ago while Gomes most recently knocked out Bruna Brasil at UFC on ESPN 44.

I’m sticking with the favorite in this fight. After all, Gomes has already lost in the UFC before. She was out-hit 48-19 in that loss to Loma Lookboonmee and now she faces Jauregui, who averages 6.35 SLpM with 41% accuracy. Gomes likes to try and bring her opponents down to the mat, which will be an issue here with Jauregui owning a 100% takedown defense rate.

Being the clear-cut better fighter, I see Jauregui winning this one by unanimous decision.

Best Bet: Yazmin Jauregui by Unanimous Decision (+150)

Light Heavyweight: Jimmy Crute (-125) vs. Alonzo Menifield (+105)

This light heavyweight collision is a rematch from UFC 284 where Jimmy Crute (12-3-1) and Alonzo Menifield (13-3-1) fought to a 15-minute draw. Both men were unsatisfied with that result, leading to the upcoming grudge match.

It’s easy to see how this matchup could go either way. After all, Menifield won the striking battle (56-31) and even scored two knockdowns in the first meeting. Having said that, Crute also scored six takedowns on 12 attempts and even applied three submission holds.

At the end of the day, Menifield showed that he can take withstand Crute on the mat and if he can replicate that success, he won’t miss the opportunity to close things out this time. Back Menifield to pull off the upset outright.

Best Bet: Alonzo Menifield to Win Outright (+105)

UFC 290 Early Prelims Prediction

Catchweight (130 lbs): Tatsuro Taira (-1100) vs. Edgar Chairez (+725)

The undefeated Tatsuro Taira (13-0) is set to take on Edgar Chairez (10-4) on short notice after Taira’s fight with Kleydson Rodrigues last week was canceled. Not only is this a last-minute bout, but it also marks Chairez’s UFC pay-per-view debut.

I don’t see a world where Chairez picks up the upset here. His only previous taste of UFC action came on Dana White’s Contender Series 2022 when he lost by unanimous decision to Clayton Carpenter, getting outstruck 79-51 while being taken down three times.

Meanwhile, Taira has been an unstoppable force throughout his MMA career, showing no signs of slowing down. With back-to-back submission wins in his last two fights, expect the Japanese phenom to extend that streak to three.

Best Bet: Tatsuro Taira by Submission (-230)

Light Heavyweight: Vitor Petrino (-300) vs. Marcin Prachnio (+250)

Vitor Petrino (8-0) and Marcin Prachnio (16-6) look to prove themselves at UFC 290. Petrino’s career is off to a perfect start as he’s improved to 2-0 under the UFC umbrella. On the other side, Prachnio has won three of his last four fights, marking his best run in over six years.

Upsets are fun, but I’m taking Petrino to remain perfect when all is said and done. Not only does the Brazilian competitor have the three-inch reach advantage, but he’s also nine years younger than Prachnio. Petrino has also won five of his last six outings by KO/TKO, whereas Prachnio has been knocked out three times in his previous seven outings.

Smart money says Petrino wins this fight by knockout, too.

Best Bet: Vitor Petrino by KO/TKO (-160)

Bantamweight: Cameron Saaiman (-550) vs. Terrence Mitchell (+400)

Cameron Saaiman (8-0) is also hoping to remain undefeated as he comes off a majority decision win over Leomana Martinez at UFC 285. Standing in his way of more perfection is Terrence Mitchell, who’s finished off his last 11 opponents ahead of his UFC debut.

Mitchell’s résumé is impressive on paper, but there isn’t a ton of tape to go off of. He hasn’t really faced any top-tier talent, whereas Saaiman at least has two knockout victories at the UFC level.

Mitchell will put up a fight, but Saaiman has youth and potential on his side. His ability to finish his foes is undeniable, so don’t be surprised if he ends this fight as early as Round 1.

Best Bet: Cameron Saaiman by KO/TKO in Round 1 (+200)

Flyweight: Shannon Ross (+124) vs. Jesus Aguilar (-144)

Shannon Ross (12-7) is the slim underdog after losing back-to-back fights via knockout to Vinicius Salvador and Kleydson Rodrigues. Meanwhile, Jesus Aguilar (8-2) aims for a bounce-back performance at UFC 290 after suffering a first-round submission loss to Taira back in February.

I’m expecting to see an upset in this matchup. While Ross absorbs quite a fair amount of blows, he doesn’t have to worry about that here as Aguilar only averages 1.60 SLpM compared to his 6.57 SLpM. Even if Aguilar tries to take things to the ground where he has a decent repertoire, Ross has yet to be taken down in the UFC.

The reality is that this flyweight scrap could go either way, but Ross has the tools to pull off an upset and get back on track.

Best Bet: Shannon Ross to Win Outright (+124)

Lightweight: Kamuela Kirk (+125) vs. Esteban Ribovics (-145)

The early prelims card also includes Kamuela Kirk (12-5) making his PPV debut following a 1-1 start to his UFC career. Standing opposite him is Esteban Ribovics (11-1), who needs a victory after losing to Loik Radzhabov via unanimous decision at UFC 285.

I predict that Ribovics returns to his winning ways this weekend. It’s important to note that he won 11 fights in a row before suffering his first-ever loss four months ago. Ribovics has the edge in the striking department, both when it comes to SLpM (4.79 vs. 2.99) and defense (56% vs. 37%).

I’m unsure how he’ll get it done, but this Ribovics will reverse his fortunes at UFC 290.

Best Bet: Esteban Ribovics to Win Outright (-145)

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UFC 290 Event Details

When is UFC 290?

UFC 290 will take place on Saturday, July 8, 2023.

Where is UFC 290?

UFC 290 will take place at T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas, Nevada.

What time does UFC 290 start?

• UFC 290 Early Prelims Start Time: 6 p.m. ET
• UFC 290 Preliminary Card Start Time: 8 p.m. ET
• Start Time of UFC 290’s Main Card: 10 p.m. ET

How can I watch UFC 290?

Fans wanting to check out the early prelims can do so exclusively with the UFC Fight Pass. The UFC 290 preliminary action can then be viewed on both ESPN and ABC while the main card is available on ESPN+ and pay-per-view providers across North America.

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• UFC 290 Card, Fight Previews, Odds, and Schedule
• UFC 290: Alexander Volkanovski vs Yair Rodriguez Fight Prediction, Odds & Picks