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UFC 291: Jan Blachowicz vs. Alex Pereira Prediction, Odds & Picks
Written by: Devon Platana
Last Updated:
Read Time: 6 minutes
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UFC 291 is quickly approaching as the biggest MMA stars today head to the Delta Center in Salt Lake City, Utah, this coming Saturday. While the exciting lightweight main event has already been covered, fans shouldn’t overlook to co-main event between former light heavyweight champion Jan Blachowicz and ex-middleweight titleholder Alex Pereira.
Blachowicz heads into Salt Lake City as the No. 3 fighter in the light heavyweight division. Meanwhile, Pereira is currently unranked due to this being his divisional debut. He’s currently the No. 2 middleweight in the company, leaving time to tell if his dominance translates when he moves up a weight class.
Betting News has put together a Blachowicz vs. Pereira preview, ranging from each fighter’s history to the latest betting odds (via BetOnline) and best bets for the UFC 291 co-main event.
Blachowicz vs Pereira Tale of the Tape
Jan Blachowicz — Alex Pereira
- Record: 29-9-1 — 7-2
- Height: 6’2” — 6’4”
- Reach: 78” — 79”
- Weight: 205lbs — 205lbs
- Age: 40 — 36
- Fighting Stance: Orthodox — Orthodox
- Knockouts: 9 — 6
UFC 291: Blachowicz vs Pereira Odds (as of Wednesday, July 26 at 9:47 a.m.)
Moneyline
- Jan Blachowicz -120
- Alex Pereira +100
Will the Fight Go the Distance?
- Yes +175
- No -215
Round Total
- Over 2.5 Rounds (+150)
- Under 2.5 Rounds (-180)
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Blachowicz vs Pereira Fighter History
With how impressive Blachowicz and Pereira have been over the years, it’s unsurprising to see how close the odds are. Nevertheless, BetOnline slightly favors Blachowicz at -120 odds to be victorious at UFC 291, carrying an implied win probability of just 54.6%.
Blachowicz has been one of the UFC’s most exciting fighters in recent years. After a back-and-forth 2-4 start to his run, the Polish product went 10-2-1 in the subsequent 13 fights, finishing eight opponents over that span.
Blachowicz’s dominant run saw him capture the light heavyweight title at UFC 253 when he knocked out Dominick Reyes. He even managed to successfully defend the title once against Israel Adesanya, only to lose it to Glover Teixeira (via submission) in the following fight.
Most recently, the 40-year-old veteran attempted to recapture the light heavyweight title at UFC 282, but couldn’t get the job done, fighting Magomed Ankalaev to a five-round draw.
There’s no denying that Pereira has less experience than his opponent. While Blachowicz has fought 39 times over 16 years, “Hands of Stone” only has nine fights under his belt since 2015.
Still, Pereira has accomplished a lot in a limited sample size. He made his UFC debut in November 2021 and didn’t take long to make a name for himself, kicking things off with four consecutive victories.
Pereira scored impressive KO/TKO wins over the likes of Sean Strickland and Bruno Silva, but his biggest victory came when he knocked Adesanya out at UFC 281 to capture the UFC Light Heavyweight Championship. Unfortunately, Pereira’s reign didn’t last long as he was knocked out by Adesanya just five months later, losing the gold in the process.
Pereira has the edge in this fight when it comes to both significant strikes landed per minute (5.23 vs. 3.41) and striking accuracy (59% vs. 49%). While Blachowicz averages more takedowns (0.97 vs. 0.28) with 0.2 submissions per 15 minutes, Pereira has the better takedown accuracy (100% vs. 53%) and defense (73% vs. 68%).
UFC 291 Betting Trends and Markets for Blachowicz vs Pereira
I don’t have much of a problem with an outright Blachowicz vs. Pereira bet due to how close the odds are. Having said that, sportsbooks like BetOnline offer a wide selection of betting options if you’re looking for more value at UFC 291.
With how hard these fighters hit, it’s no surprise to see BetOnline favor that this fight won’t go the distance (-215). Only three of Blachowicz’s last 10 fights have gone the distance while Pereira has reached the time limit just once in nine career fights.
The most likely method of victory is for Pereira to win by KO/TKO at +155 odds. Six of his seven all-time victories have come via knockout, including three in five fights at the UFC level. At the same time, Blachowicz hasn’t been knocked out since 2019.
Speaking of the pride of Poland, Blachowicz’s top victory method is actually winning by points (+315). He does have the better cardio of the two competitors and has gone the distance 17 times over his career, winning 11 of those bouts.
Assuming that the UFC 291 co-main event doesn’t go the distance, BetOnline sees Pereira ending it in Round 1 by KO/TKO (+500). Three of his knockout wins occurred in the opening round, however, only one happened in the UFC.
UFC 291: Blachowicz vs Pereira Fight Prediction
There’s a good chance that this fight could steal the show. Both men are talented strikers in their own right, however, I’m taking Pereira to win. He has the youth and physical advantage on his side, as well as the superior striking ability. As long as Pereira stays on his feet and uses his size to keep Blachowicz at a distance, he’ll find success in his light heavyweight debut.
As for the best bet, there isn’t anything wrong with taking Pereira outright (+100). At the same time, if you want some extra value, I suggest backing a KO/TKO win (+150). These men will come out swinging with the intent to end this fight quickly. Pereira is known for his heavy punches, highlighted by his doing something that Blachowicz couldn’t: knock out Adesanya.
Blachowicz will get some good shots in, but I see Pereira landing the knockout blow to return to prominence.
UFC 291 Event Details
When is UFC 291?
UFC 291 will take place on Saturday, July 29, 2023.
Where is UFC 291?
UFC 291 will take place at the Delta Center in Salt Lake City, Utah.
What time does UFC 291 start?
- UFC 291 Early Prelims Card: 6:30 p.m. ET
- UFC 291 Preliminary Card Start Time: 8 p.m. ET
- Start Time of UFC 291’s Main Card: 10 p.m. ET
How can I watch UFC 291?
The early prelims action can be viewed through the UFC Fight Pass. Following that, the UFC 291 preliminary card airs on both ABC and ESPN before the main card takes place on ESPN+ and through pay-per-view providers.
How can I bet on UFC 291?
All of the top online sports betting sites will have UFC 291 odds, but here are some of the sites we recommend most for MMA betting enthusiasts.
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Devon is a Master of Journalism graduate who joined the sports betting world in 2020. His favorite leagues to cover are the NHL, NBA and NFL, and has a soft spot for fantasy football specifically. Outside of sports, he enjoys the finer things in life like pasta, live music and getting even more tattoos.
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