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UFC 291: Tony Ferguson vs. Bobby Green Prediction, Odds & Picks
Written by: Devon Platana
Last Updated:
Read Time: 6 minutes
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With UFC 291 quickly approaching, Betting News has spent the week covering everything you need to know heading into the massive MMA event. The next fight we’ll take a look at is the lightweight collision between former interim UFC Lightweight Champion Tony Ferguson and the always-tough Bobby Green.
Ferguson and Green both head into this weekend’s festivities riding winless streaks. On top of that, both men find themselves on the outside looking in when it comes to the lightweight division rankings. Needless to say, a victory is crucial for either potential winner’s future.
Betting News has put together a Ferguson vs. Green preview, ranging from each fighter’s history to the latest betting odds (via BetOnline) and best bets for the UFC 291 main card bout.
Ferguson vs Green Tale of the Tape
Tony Ferguson — Bobby Green
- Record: 26-8 — 29-14-1 (1NC)
- Height: 5’11” — 5’10”
- Reach: 76” — 71”
- Weight: 155lbs — 155lbs
- Age: 39 — 36
- Fighting Stance: Orthodox — Orthodox
- Knockouts: 12 — 10
UFC 291: Ferguson vs Green Odds (as of Wednesday, July 26 at 10:30 p.m.)
Moneyline
- Tony Ferguson +300
- Bobby Green -400
Will the Fight Go the Distance?
- Yes -120
- No -110
Round Total
- Over 2.5 Rounds (-140)
- Under 2.5 Rounds (+110)
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Ferguson vs Green Fight Preview
Although neither man has tasted fighter in some time, BetOnline heavily favors Green to emerge victorious at UFC 291. The ex-KOTC Lightweight Champion’s -400 moneyline odds equate to an implied win probability of 80.0%.
Still, Green’s recent fight history is bound to have some bettors questioning if he deserves to be heavily favored. The 36-year-old veteran UFC career has been a mixed bag, to say the least going 6-9-1 with a no-contest in his last 17 fights.
After consecutive wins over Al Iaquinta and Nasrat Haqparast, Green suffered back-to-back knockout losses to Islam Makhachev and Drew Dober to close out 2022. He made his return to the octagon against Jared Gordon at UFC Vegas 71, but things ended in controversy after a collision of heads resulted in the fight being ruled a no-contest.
While Green’s luck has been bad, Ferguson’s has been much worse. The Oxnard, California native heads into UFC 291 having lost each of his previous five fights — the longest skid of his 15-year career.
Ferguson’s losing streak began in a failed bid to capture the interim lightweight title at UFC 249, losing to Justin Gaethje by knockout. He promptly followed that defeat with back-to-back unanimous decision losses to Charles Oliveira and Beneil Dariush before losing to Michael Chandler via KO in May 2022.
In an effort to get his mojo back, Ferguson stepped up to the welterweight division to take on Nate Diaz at UFC 279. Much to his dismay, the change of scenery didn’t help Ferguson as he was submitted by Diaz’s guillotine choke.
Statistically speaking, Ferguson and Green’s striking numbers are quite similar. Green only averages one more significant fight per minute on slightly better accuracy (51% vs. 45%) than Ferguson.
Grappling-wise, Green averages nearly three more takedowns per 15 minutes and boasts a better takedown defense rate (72%) compared to Ferguson (66%). What’s interesting to note as well is that both men have eight career submission wins to their name.
UFC 291 Betting Trends and Markets for Ferguson vs Green
Bettors seeking more of a bang for their buck rather than betting on the moneyline are in luck. BetOnline has numerous Ferguson vs Green betting options to take advantage of ahead of their UFC 291 fight.
Although the two lightweights have 38 finishes between them, BetOnline is favoring this matchup to go the distance at -120 odds. That’s likely due to the fact that Ferguson and Green have been allergic to victory recently.
Having said that, only two of Ferguson’s previous eight fights went the distance. It’s been similar for Green, who has only reached the time limit once in his last five fights.
Keeping the above in mind, it’s no surprise that the sportsbook favors Green to win by points (+135). He’s 4-2 in his last six fights that featured some form of decision and 11-8-1 all-time when his fights have gone the distance.
Ferguson’s top victory method is also to win by points, however, his odds sit at a distant +550. While “El Cucuy” lost his last two fights that went the distance, he owns a 5-4 career record when the judges decide the victor of his fights.
If this fight is won in the distance, Green is favored to win by first-round knockout (+425). Of the 10 KO/TKO victories he’s amassed over his career, eight happened within the first round.
UFC 291: Ferguson vs Green Fight Prediction
It’s finally time for Green to put his losing ways behind him. Ferguson has been getting beaten up during his skid and nothing he’s done recently hints at that trend coming to end end. Green looked half-decent in his fight with Gordon before controversy struck, so I see him building off that performance against a struggling opponent.
Taking Green to win by KO/TKO (+150) is my best bet for this fight ahead of UFC 291. Green’s a heavy hitter and has the slightly better striking numbers, so I see him taking advantage of Ferguson, who’s been knocked out twice in his last five fights.
If you’re looking for an alternate bet, I also like the idea of saying the fight won’t go the distance (-110). When it comes to each fighter’s last five fights combined, only three of those bouts went the distance. Ferguson and Green have made careers off finishing the competition, hence why I predict that this matchup will feature some kind of finish.
UFC 291 Event Details
When is UFC 291?
UFC 291 will take place on Saturday, July 29, 2023.
Where is UFC 291?
UFC 291 will take place at the Delta Center in Salt Lake City, Utah.
What time does UFC 291 start?
- UFC 291 Early Prelims Card: 6:30 p.m. ET
- UFC 291 Preliminary Card Start Time: 8 p.m. ET
- Start Time of UFC 291’s Main Card: 10 p.m. ET
How can I watch UFC 291?
The early prelims action can be viewed through the UFC Fight Pass. Following that, the UFC 291 preliminary card airs on both ABC and ESPN before the main card takes place on ESPN+ and through pay-per-view providers.
How can I bet on UFC 291?
All of the top online sports betting sites will have UFC 291 odds, but here are some of the sites we recommend most for MMA betting enthusiasts.
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Devon is a Master of Journalism graduate who joined the sports betting world in 2020. His favorite leagues to cover are the NHL, NBA and NFL, and has a soft spot for fantasy football specifically. Outside of sports, he enjoys the finer things in life like pasta, live music and getting even more tattoos.
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