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UFC 295: Prochazka vs. Pereira Preliminary and Early Prelims Predictions, Odds & Picks
Written by: Devon Platana
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Read Time: 7 minutes
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The 2023 Ultimate Fight Championship calendar is nearing its end with UFC 295 right around the corner. Not only is Saturday’s MMA pay-per-view stacked with main card betting opportunities, but also action worth getting in on when it comes to the prelim fights.
There’s a lot to keep track of regarding the early betting action, but Betting News has you covered. Continue reading for the UFC 295 predictions regarding the preliminary and early prelims cards, including the latest odds and top bets.
UFC 295 Predictions: Prelims Odds & Picks
The UFC 295 odds listed below are courtesy of Bovada as of Friday, Nov. 10 at 10:06 a.m.
Steve Erceg vs. Alessandro Costa Prediction — Flyweight
- Steve Erceg (-197)
- Alessandro Costa (+163)
Steve Erceg (10-1) is on the hunt for his 10th consecutive win after overcoming David Dvorak (via unanimous decision) in his UFC debut. Meanwhile, Alessandro Costa (13-3) is coming off a second-round TKO win over Jimmy Flick.
I’m actually going to go with a Costa upset victory here. While Erceg has been solid, Costa is more accurate with his strikes (43% vs. 38%) while boasting superior striking defense (63% vs. 53%). His 91% takedown defense rate should also help keep him on his feet.
Never one to back down from an uphill battle, I’ll take Costa winning outright.
Erceg vs. Costa Prediction: Costa Outright (+163)
Tabatha Ricci vs. Loopy Godinez Prediction — Women’s Strawweight
- Tabatha Ricci (+147)
- Loopy Godinez (-176)
Tabatha Ricci (9-1) has been on a roll since returning to the strawweight division, rattling off four straight wins ahead of this UFC 295 prelims bout. Loopy Godinez (11-3), though, has fought to a 3-0 record in 2023, most recently submitting Elise Reed back in September.
I’m not really a huge fan of this matchup. Godinez isn’t the most trustworthy favorite, only owning a 5-3-1 record when the odds are in her favor. At the same time, Ricci lost her only bout as the underdog.
Considering how 66.7% of these women’s fights went the distance, I’ll go with Godinez’s sneaking out of MSG with the decision win.
Ricci vs. Godinez Prediction: Godinez via Decision (+100)
Mateusz Rebecki vs. Roosevelt Roberts Prediction — Lightweight
- Mateusz Rebecki (-650)
- Roosevelt Roberts (+450)
The always-dominant Metusz Rebecki (18-1) is on the hunt for his 16th straight victory as he takes on Roosevelt Roberts, who’s making his UFC return following a two-year hiatus.
While Roberts’ return story is nice, there won’t be an upset in the Big Apple. Rebecki is one of the better lightweights on the planet and boasts a 78.9% finish rate. That doesn’t bode well for Roberts after being finished in three straight UFC bouts before his release in September 2021.
Roberts doesn’t have the wrestling skills to keep up with the odds-on favorite, so take Rebecki to win this UFC 295 prelims clash by submission.
Rebecki vs. Roberts Prediction: Rebecki via Submission (+250)
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Nazim Sadykhov vs. Viacheslav Borshchev Prediction — Lightweight
- Nazim Sadykhov (-140)
- Viacheslav Borshchev (+115)
UFC fans can expect a hard-hitting contest here. Nazim Sadykhov (9-1) extended his winning streak to nine with a submission win over Terrance McKinney four months ago. Meanwhile, Viacheslav Borshchev (7-3) avoided a third straight loss by TKO’ing Maheshate Hayisaer at UFC Fight Night 223.
This is about as even as a fight that you’re going to get. Sadykhov and Borschev are basically the same size and average similar striking outputs. Having said that, Sadykhov does have the grappling advantage, boasting 100% takedown accuracy and 75% defense.
I expect both lightweights to go balls-to-the-wall and put it all on the table early on. Given his toughness and 88.9% finish rate, I won’t be shocked if Sadykhov ends it before reaching the round limit.
Sadykhov vs. Borschev Prediction: Sadykhov Inside the Distance (+135)
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UFC 295 Predictions: Early Prelims Odds & Picks
Jared Gordon vs. Mark Madsen Prediction — Lightweight
- Jared Gordon (-215)
- Mark Madsen (+176)
Jared Gordon (19-6, 1NC) is desperate for a win at UFC 295, having gone 1-2 with a no-contest in his last four fights. It’ll be interesting to see if he prevails against Mark Madsen (12-1), who hasn’t stepped into the octagon in over a year.
While Gordon is a solid grappler and has more MMA experience, Madsen is a former Olympic silver medalist for a reason. I can see “The Olympian” getting the advantage of Gordon if this turns into a grappling contest, especially with the latter having been taken down 11 times in his last five fights.
With five of Gordon’s last seven fights going the distance and the same occurring in six of Madsen’s previous nine, let’s go with the underdog winning via decision.
Gordon vs. Madsen Prediction: Madsen via Decision (+185)
John Castaneda vs. Kang Kyung-ho Prediction — Catchweight (138 lbs)
- John Castaneda (-132)
- Kang Kyung-ho (+110)
After losing his UFC debut, John Castaneda (20-6) has been on a roll, emerging victorious in three of his last four fights. Standing in his way is Kang Kyung-ho (19-9, 1NC), who improved to 5-1 in his last six fights by submitting Cristian Quinonez at UFC Vegas 75.
With the way the odds are, I’m taking a neutral bet by saying that this fight won’t go the distance. For starters, these upcoming foes have 28 combined finishes between them. On top of that, Castaneda has only gone the distance twice in his last six fights while four of Kang’s previous 10 saw a finish.
Castaneda vs. Kang Prediction: Fight Won’t Go the Distance (+138)
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Joshua Van vs. Kevin Borjas Prediction — Flyweight
- Joshua Van (-230)
- Kevin Borjas (+188)
Joshua Van (8-1) is back in action at UFC 295, heading into the PPV on a six-fight winning streak. At the same time, this fight serves as Kevin Borjas’ (9-1) debut as he searches for his fifth win in a row.
I haven’t seen much of Borjas, which is why I’m going with Van. Not only does he already have a UFC victory, but the 22-year-old has finished five of his last six opponents before the second round was even over.
The spotlight will be too much for Borjas to handle, so look for Van to end this early prelims bout soon after it starts.
Van vs. Borjas Prediction: Van Inside the Distance (+150)
Dennis Buzukja vs. Jamall Emmers Prediction — Featherweight
- Dennis Buzukja (+215)
- Jamall Emmers (-275)
Lastly, time will tell if Dennis Buzukja (11-3) can rebound from losing to Sean Woodson via unanimous decision in his UFC debut. Standing opposite is Jammall Emmers (19-7), who’s tasted defeat in three of his five previous outings.
This is another fight that I’m not a huge fan of betting on. Buzukja didn’t look great in his last outing, but Emmers hasn’t been reliable in years, going 1-3 in his last four fights as the favorite.
History says to back the underdog, but I’ll go with the fight going the distance instead as the top bet. After all, the Emmers fought to the round limit four times in his five previous fights while Buzukja has done thrice at UFC-related events — in his last fight and twice on Dana White’s Contender Series.
Buzukja vs. Emmers Prediction: Fight Goes the Distance (+114)
UFC 295 Predictions FAQ
When is UFC 295?
- UFC 295 will take place on Saturday, Nov. 11, 2023.
Where is UFC 295?
- UFC 295 will take place at Madison Square Garden in New York City, New York.
What time does UFC 295 start?
- Early Prelims Start: 6 p.m. ET
- Preliminary Card Start Time: 8 p.m. ET
- Main Card Start Time: 10 p.m. ET
How can I watch UFC 295?
- Early Prelims Channel: ESPN+
- Preliminary Card Channel: ESPNN, ESPN+
- Main Card Channel: ESPN+, PPV Providers
How can I bet on UFC 295?
- All of the top online sports betting sites will have UFC 295 odds, but here are some of the sites we recommend most for MMA betting enthusiasts.
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Devon is a Master of Journalism graduate who joined the sports betting world in 2020. His favorite leagues to cover are the NHL, NBA and NFL, and has a soft spot for fantasy football specifically. Outside of sports, he enjoys the finer things in life like pasta, live music and getting even more tattoos.
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