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UFC 302: Islam Makhachev vs Dustin Poirier Fight Prediction, Odds & Best Bets
Written by: Devon Platana
Last Updated:
Read Time: 6 minutes
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This Makhachev vs. Poirier prediction for UFC 302 is brought to you by BetOnline. BetOnline is a market leader in sports betting, offering various options from UFC odds to wrestling and everything in between.
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Another exciting weekend of MMA action is upon us as UFC 302 goes down on Saturday, June 1. The action-packed card features several big-time bouts, including when Islam Makhachev puts the UFC Lightweight title on the line against former interim titleholder Dustin Poirier in the main event.
He's looking to add undisputed world champion to his resume this weekend ??@DustinPoirier is on the hunt for the lightweight title in the #UFC302 main event! pic.twitter.com/aArWhcyiIE
— UFC (@ufc) May 29, 2024
It’s shaping up to be a massive headlining act between two fighters with a ton to prove. Makhachev hasn’t tasted defeat in nearly a decade while veteran Poirier looks to prove that he still has ‘it’ as he currently ranks as UFC’s No. 4 lightweight.
Saturday’s main event is also littered with UFC betting opportunities and Betting News is here to help you get the most out of them.
Keep reading for my UFC 302: Makhachev vs. Poirier preview, featuring the latest odds plus my predictions and betting picks for this weekend.
UFC 302: Makhachev vs Poirier Betting Odds
UFC 302: Makhachev vs. Poirier odds are courtesy of BetOnline as of Wednesday, May 29 at 11:23 a.m. ET.
Makhachev vs Poirier Moneyline
- Islam Makhachev (-700)
- Dustin Poirier (+500)
WillMakhachev vs Poirier Go the Distance?
- Yes (+375)
- No (-550)
Makhachev vs Poirier Round Total
- Over 2.5 Rounds (+145)
- Under 2.5 Rounds (-175)
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Makhachev vs Poirier Tale of the Tape
Islam Makhachev (c) — Dustin Poirier
- Record: 25-1 — 30-8, 1 NC
- Height: 5’10” — 5’9”
- Reach: 70” — 72”
- Weight: 155 lbs — 155 lbs
- Age: 32 — 35
- Fighting Stance: Southpaw — Southpaw
- Knockouts: 5 — 15
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UFC 302: Makhachev vs Poirier Fight Preview
As UFC 302 nears, oddsmakers are firmly on one fighter’s side when it comes to the main event. BetOnline is heavily favoring Islam Makhachev at -700 odds over Dustin Poirier, which carries an implied win probability of 87.5%.
Having said that, it’s unsurprisingly to see Makhachev as the heavy favorite considering that he hasn’t lost since UFC 192. The 32-year-old Russian superstar has since won each of his last 13 fights, winning eight of those bouts via knockout/submission while picking up the other five victories by unanimous decision.
Makhachev’s biggest victory came when he submitted Charles Oliveira for the vacant lightweight title at UFC 280. He’s since made back-to-back successful defenses against Alexander Volkanovski, first defeating him via UD at UFC 284 before scoring a first-round knockout at UFC 294.
[su_youtube url=”https://youtu.be/gfn9ezpvxuA?si=ExRwQBeCATPAxvXk” responsive=”yes” autoplay=”no”]
As for Poirier, he’s won more often than not over the last few years, going 5-2 in his last seven outings. Having said that, both of those losses came in his last four fights. He failed to defeat Oliveira for the UFC Lightweight title back in 2021, losing via submission, before being knocked out by Justin Gaethje for the BMF title last July.
Nevertheless, Poirier does have some momentum on his side. The Lafayette, LA native scored a second-round KO victory over Benoit Saint-Denis back in March, earning ‘fight of the night’ honors for his work. Time will tell if he can earn consecutive wins for the first time in over three years.
When it comes to statistics, Makhachev has the advantage across the board. While Poirier lands more significant strikes, Makhachev boasts superior accuracy (60% vs. 51%) and defenses (61% vs. 53%). The champion also absorbs three fewer significant blows than his challenger per minute.
On the mat, Makhachev averages 3.17 takedowns per 15 minutes with 60% accuracy and 90% defense. Meanwhile, Poirier averages 1.33, 36%, and 63%, respectively.
It’s also worth noting that Makhachev owns a 93.3% success rate as the favorite in the UFC, whereas Poirier has a mark of 71.4% as the underdog.
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UFC 302: Makhachev vs Poirier Prop Bets & Betting Trends
While the moneyline points to which fighter is favored to win a given bout, it doesn’t reveal how the fight will unfold. Fortunately, BetOnline’s UFC 302: Makhachev vs. Poirier prop markets help shine some light on this weekend’s main event.
The first notable thing is that BetOnline is favoring that the fight won’t go the distance (-550). It isn’t too surprising given that six of Makhachev’s last seven fights featured a finish while each of Poirier’s last six outings failed to reach the distance.
With that being said, Makhachev is favored to win by submission at -125 odds. Again, unsurprising considering that he holds 11 submission victories to his name with four of those wins coming in his last seven bouts. For reference, Poirier has tapped out three times in his career.
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Meanwhile, Poirier’s most likely path to an upset is to win via KO/TKO (+625). Although he has impressively racked up 15 career KO/TKO victories, he only has one in his last four outings while Makhachev has never been knocked out before.
Assuming that the champion pulls off the finish, he’s most likely to submit Poirier in Round 1 (+325). Of the 32-year-old’s 11 submission wins, five of them occurred in the opening frame.
In general, Makhachev sits at -310 odds to win the fight anytime within the distance.
UFC 302: Makhachev vs Poirier Prediction & Best Bet
While upsets happen all the time, I’m firmly backing Makhachev to win. The UFC Lightweight Champion is on another level and isn’t showing any signs of slowing down as he mows through the competition. Meanwhile, Poirier is no longer in his prime and has been fighting inconsistently lately, so I just don’t see an upset happening.
I’m also taking Makhachev to win via submission (-125). He’s the superior grappler in this fight and has been finishing opponents left and right. Considering how Poirier has been submitted twice in the last five years, I won’t be shocked if the champ snaps or taps out the challenger.
Makhachev vs Poirier Prediction: Islam Makhachev wins
Makhachev vs Poirier Best Bet: Makhachev via Submission (-125)
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UFC 302: Makhachev vs. Poirier Information & FAQ
When is UFC 302?
- UFC 302 will take place on Saturday, June 1, 2024.
Where is UFC 302?
- UFC 302 airs live from Prudential Center in Newark, NJ.
What time does UFC 302 start?
- UFC 302 Early Prelims Start Time: 6:15 p.m. ET
- UFC 302 Preliminary Card Start Time: 8 p.m. ET
- UFC 302 Main Card Start Time: 10 p.m. ET
How to Watch UFC 302
- UFC 302 Early Prelims Channel: ESPN+
- UFC 302 Preliminary Card Channel: ESPN+, ESPN2
- UFC 302 Main Card Channel: ESPN+, PPV
How to Bet on UFC 302
- All of the top online sports betting sites will have UFC 302 odds, but here are some of the sites we recommend most for UFC betting enthusiasts.
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Devon is a Master of Journalism graduate who joined the sports betting world in 2020. His favorite leagues to cover are the NHL, NBA and NFL, and has a soft spot for fantasy football specifically. Outside of sports, he enjoys the finer things in life like pasta, live music and getting even more tattoos.
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