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UFC 303: Alex Pereira vs Jiri Prochazka 2 Fight Prediction, Odds & Best Bets
Written by: Devon Platana
Last Updated:
Read Time: 6 minutes
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This Pereira vs. Prochazka 2 prediction for UFC 303 is brought to you by BetOnline. BetOnline is a market leader in sports betting, offering various options from UFC odds to wrestling and everything in between.
The Ultimate Fighting Championship is back in Las Vegas this weekend for UFC 303. The upcoming pay-per-view card is loaded, featuring a massive main event that will see Alex Pereira put the UFC Light Heavyweight title on the line against Jiri Prochazka.
Conor McGregor and Michael Chandler were originally supposed to headline this weekend’s PPV, but that fight was scrapped due to McGregor dealing with a foot injury. Instead, Pereira and Prochazka will go to war in their second five-round showdown in less than a year, leaving time to tell who’ll emerge victorious this time.
Without wasting time, let’s dive into this UFC 303: Pereira vs. Prochazka 2 preview as we make some predictions and look at the fight’s best bets.
UFC 303: Pereira vs. Prochazka 2 Betting Odds
UFC 303: Pereira vs. Prochazka 2 odds are courtesy of BetOnline as of Wednesday, June 26 at 10:07 a.m. ET.
Pereira vs Prochazka 2 Moneyline
- Alex Pereira (-125)
- Jiri Prochazka (+105)
Will Pereira vs Prochazka 2 Go the Distance?
- Yes (+375)
- No (-550)
Pereira vs Prochazka 2 Round Total
- Over 1.5 Rounds (-150)
- Under 1.5 Rounds (+120)
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Pereira vs. Prochazka 2 Tale of the Tape
Alex Pereira (c) — Jiri Prochazka
- Record: 10-2 — 30-4-1
- Height: 6’4” — 6’3”
- Reach: 79” — 80”
- Weight: 205 lbs — 205 lbs
- Age: 36 — 31
- Fighting Stance: Orthodox — Orthodox
- Knockouts: 8 — 26
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UFC 303: Pereira vs Prochazka 2 Fight Preview
Saturday’s main event is shaping up to be a close-fought bought if the oddsmakers are to be believed. While Alex Pereira is currently BetOnline’s -125 favorite to retain the light heavyweight gold, those odds carry an implied win probability of just 55.6%.
Pereira has experienced a ton of success to begin his UFC run, going 7-1 under the company thus far. After dominating the middleweight division and winning its top prize, the Brazilian veteran made his light heavyweight debut against Jan Blachowicz at UFC 291. Pereira overcame Blachowicz with a split-decision win before going on to face Jiri Prochazka less than four months later.
The UFC 295 meeting between the pair didn’t last long. Pereira stunned Prochazka with a stunning jab late in the second round before putting the latter down for the count with a series of elbows, capturing the UFC Light Heavyweight gold and ‘performance of the night honors’ along the way.
Since then Pereira has made one successful defense, KO’ing Jamahal Hill at UFC 300 before Round 1 even ended.
[su_youtube url=”https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UHGomATiHvU” responsive=”yes” autoplay=”no”]
At the same time, we can’t act as if Prochazka is some slouch.
After racking up a 26-3-1 record across the Czech Republic and Japan, Prochazka finally made his UFC debut in July 2020. He began his run with back-to-back KO victories over Volkan Oezdemir and Dominick Reyes before earning a light heavyweight title shot against Glover Texeira at UFC 275. Although the fight looked like it was going to reach the distance, Prochazka ended it all with a rear-naked choke in the final round’s dying moments.
And yes, the 31-year-old has already lost once to Pereira, but he did a good job of bouncing back. Prochazka was also in action at UFC 300, picking up a second-round TKO victory over Aleksandar Rakic as the performer of the night.
As far as stats go, Pereira averages 5.1 significant strikes per minute with 62% accuracy while Prochazka puts up 5.8 and 56%, respectively. Having said that, Prochazka also absorbs nearly two more blows per 60 seconds than the champion while owning noticeably worse strike defense (41% vs. 50%).
Both men are solid grapplers, however, it’s Pereira who has 100% takedown accuracy and 70% defense compared to Prochazka’s marks of 60% and 68%.
It’s also worth noting that Pereira is a perfect 5-0 as the favorite in the UFC while Prochazka is only 1-1 in the underdog role.
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UFC 303: Pereira vs Prochazka 2 Prop Bet Odds & Betting Trends
As usual, BetOnline has a plethora of Pereira vs. Prochazka 2 prop bets that further indicate how the fight could go.
For starters, oddsmakers aren’t expecting a lengthy bout. The total is set to just 1.5 rounds while BetOnline is also favoring that the showdown won’t go the distance at -550 odds. It isn’t too shocking, though. Between these fighters’47 combined fights, 43 of those bouts featured some sort of finish.
With that in mind, it makes sense that Pereira is favored to win via KO/TKO at -120 odds. Eight of his 10 career victories came from knockout efforts, which includes four in his last six outings.
[su_youtube url=”https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2T7PEgMxLSA” responsive=”yes” autoplay=”no”]
If there’s an upset this weekend, Prochazka is most likely to win by KO/TKO (+210), too. Again, nothing out of the ordinary here. The Czech juggernaut already has 26 knockout victories to his name with 11 of those efforts coming in his 13 previous outings.
If he does win by KO/TKO, Pereira is most likely to accomplish the feat in Round 1 (+295). Of his eight career knockout wins, four occurred in the opening frame.
Conversely, Prochazka sits at +650 odds to win via first-round knockout — something he’s done 21 times throughout his 12-year career.
UFC 303: Pereira vs Prochazka 2 Predictions & Best Bet
After handling Prochazka the first time, I recommend taking Pereira to retain at UFC 303. It’s going to be a close bout, but I see the champion successfully keeping his distance from the challenger before eventually putting him down for the count.
With how these combatants are known to brawl, I predict that Pereira will win via KO/TKO. Having said that, if you aren’t feeling as confident as I am, there’s nothing wrong with a straight-up bet given that his moneyline odds (-125) still hold solid value.
Pereira vs. Prochazka 2 Prediction: Alex Pereira wins
Pereira vs. Prochazka 2 Bet: Pereira via KO/TKO (-120) or outright (-125)
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UFC 303: Pereira vs Prochazka 2 Information & FAQ
When is UFC 303?
- UFC 303 will take place on Saturday, June 29, 2024.
Where is UFC 303?
- UFC 303 airs live from T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas, NV.
What time does UFC 303 start?
- UFC 303 Early Prelims Start Time: 6 p.m. ET
- UFC 303 Preliminary Card Start Time: 8 p.m. ET
- UFC 303 Main Card Start Time: 10 p.m. ET
How to Watch UFC 303
- UFC 303 Early Prelims Channel: ESPN+, ESPN
- UFC 303 Preliminary Card Channel: ESPN+, PPV
- UFC 303 Main Card Channel: ESPN+, PPV
How to Bet on UFC 303
- All of the top online sports betting sites will have UFC odds, but here are some of the sites we recommend most for UFC betting enthusiasts.
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Devon is a Master of Journalism graduate who joined the sports betting world in 2020. His favorite leagues to cover are the NHL, NBA and NFL, and has a soft spot for fantasy football specifically. Outside of sports, he enjoys the finer things in life like pasta, live music and getting even more tattoos.
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