UFC 309: Jones vs Miocic Fight Prediction, Odds & Best Bets

UFC 309 is taking over New York City’s Madison Square Garden on Saturday for one of the most anticipated MMA events of the year. The main event of the weekend will see UFC Heavyweight Champion Jon Jones put his gold on the line against Stipe Miocic in an explosive bout that has been a long time coming.

Will Jones manage to walk out of the Big Apple with his championship? Or will Miocic find a way to return to the top of the mountain for the third time in his career?

Those questions will be answered as we dive into the latest Jones vs. Miocic odds, predictions, and best bets heading into UFC 309.

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UFC 309: Jones vs Miocic Betting Odds

All UFC 309: Jones vs. Miocic odds are courtesy of BetOnline as of Friday, Nov. 15 at 2:32 p.m.

• Moneyline: Jon Jones (-700) | Stipe Miocic (+500)
• Round total: 2.5 — Over (+105) | Under (-135)
• Most likely method of victory: Jones via KO/TKO (+115)

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Jones vs Miocic Tale of the Tape

Jone Jones (c) — Stipe Miocic

• Record: 27-1, 1 NC — 20-4
• Height: 6’4” — 6’4”
• Reach: 84” — 80”
• Weight: 248 lbs — 240 lbs
• Age: 37 — 42
• Fighting Stance: Orthodox — Orthodox
• Knockouts: 10 — 15

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UFC 309: Jones vs Miocic Fight Preview

As the reigning heavyweight champion, Jones is BetOnline’s clear-cut -700 favorite to successfully retain against Miocic at UFC 309. The 37-year-old bruiser’s odds carry an implied win probability of a whopping 87.5%, illustrating the uphill battle that the challenger has ahead of him.

It shouldn’t be surprising to see Jones as the lopsided favorite this weekend. The Rochester, NY native is one of the most dominant athletes that the sport has ever since, racking up 17 finishes with a single loss in 29 career bouts. After a three-year hiatus, the former two-time UFC Light Heavyweight titleholder returned to the octagon against Ciryl Gane at UFC 285, picking up a first-round submission win to claim the vacant heavyweight championship.

Jones has now gone 19 consecutive outings without tasting defeated, all while overcoming some of the best fighters that the UFC has ever rostered. He was supposed to have already fought Miocic at UFC 295, however, “Bones” had to pull out of the fight due to a pectoral injury.

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Meanwhile, it’s going to be interesting to see how Miocic looks in his return to the cage. The 42-year-old heavyweight has been on a hiatus ever since he lost the UFC Heavyweight title to Francis Ngannou, via second-round knockout, at UFC 260.

Although Miocic is one of the best heavyweights to ever do it, it’s hard not to be concerned about him this weekend. Not only has it been 44 months since his last fight, but he’s also been knocked out before halfway through Round 2 in two of his last four outings. That just isn’t the kind of trend you want to see at this stage of his career.

Jones isn’t used to fighting heavyweights, though, and time will tell if he can handle the underdog’s power. Miocic has a powerful punch, averaging 4.82 significant strikes per minute with 15 career KO/TKO victories to his name.

But even if he doesn’t have as much heavyweight experience as the opposition, it’s always tough to go against Jones, regardless of who his opponent is. As wild as it would be to see an upset, it might just end up being business as usual for the BJJ expert.

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UFC 309: Jones vs Miocic Prop Bet Odds & Betting Trends

A glance at BetOnline’s Jones vs. Miocic prop markets helps shed light on how the UFC 309 main event could unfold tomorrow.

For starters, it’s clear that oddsmakers aren’t anticipating a lengthy fight. Only only is BetOnline favoring that Jones vs. Miocic won’t go the distance (-500), but the projected round total sits at 2.5 with the Under being favored at -135 odds. Having said that, it isn’t that surprising given that Jones and Miocic have only gone the distance 16 times in 53 career fights while combing for 32 finishes during that stretch.

With a time limit decision unlikely, Jones is most likely to win via KO/TKO at +115 odds. Although the champion has 10 career knockout wins to his name, he hasn’t KO’d an opponent since he met Alexander Gustafsson way back at UFC 232.

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As for Miocic, his most likely path to victory this weekend is also by winning by KO/TKO, albeit at a distant +650 odds. The Euclid, OH native has amassed 15 knockout wins since debuting in 2010 but hasn’t picked up victory with that method in over five years.

If we do see a finish on Saturday night, Jones is favored to knock Miocic out in Round 1 (+425) — something he’s done in 60% of his knockout victories. Having said that, only one of Miocic’s three KO/TKO losses occurred in the opening frame.

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UFC 309: Jones vs Miocic Predictions & Best Bet

Saturday night’s main event could be unpredictable given both men’s recent layoffs. Nevertheless, I’m predicting a Jon Jones victory in New York City.

At the end of the day, betting against Jones rarely works out as he’s only lost once in his illustrious career. I just have a hard time imagining that changing against Miocic, who hasn’t won a fight in over four years. As good as the 42-year-old veteran is, that hiatus might have been too long, and a return bout against a threat as dangerous as Jones could spell disaster.

Taking the above into account, I’m going with the Under on the 2.5-round total as the best bet. After all, six of Miocic’s last nine fights lasted fewer than 2.5 rounds while 15 of Jones’ 29 career fights finished below tomorrow’s projected total.

With both fighters boasting a fair amount of knockout power, I won’t be shocked if the UFC 309 main event is a quick one.

UFC 309: Jones vs Miocic Prediction — Jon Jones wins

UFC 309: Jones vs Miocic Bet — u2.5 Total Rounds (-135)

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UFC 309: Jones vs Miocic Watch Info & FAQ

When is UFC 309?

• UFC 309 will take place on Saturday, Nov. 16, 2024.

Where is UFC 309?

• UFC 309 airs live from Madison Square Garden in New York, New York.

What time does UFC 309 start?

• UFC 309 Early Prelims Start Time: 6 p.m. ET
• UFC 309 Preliminary Card Start Time: 8 p.m. ET
• UFC 309 Main Card Start Time: 10 p.m. ET

How to Watch UFC 309

• UFC 309 Preliminary Card Channel: ESPN+, Hulu
• UFC 309 Preliminary Card Channel: ESPN+, Hulu, FX, ESPNEWS
• UFC 309 Main Card Channel: ESPN+, PPV

How to Bet on UFC 309

• All of the top online sports betting sites will have UFC 309, but click here for some of the sites we recommend most for UFC betting enthusiasts.