UFC on ABC 5: Josh Emmett vs Ilia Topuria Fight Prediction, Odds & Picks

UFC on ABC 5 is just days away as a night of exciting action is slated to take over VyStar Veterans Memorial Arena in Jacksonville, Florida this Saturday. There’s something for everyone on the card, however, a good chunk of MMA enthusiasts have their sights set on the main event between former interim UFC Featherweight Championship challenger Josh Emmett and the undefeated Ilia Topuria.

JOSH ? EMMETT ? @JoshEmmettUFC vs. Ilia Topuria headline this Sunday at #UFCJacksonville! pic.twitter.com/JUCqTkIQun

— UFC_AUSNZ (@UFC_AUSNZ) June 20, 2023

There’s a lot riding on this fight as Emmett enters as the UFC’s No. 5 featherweight while Topuria isn’t too far behind him at No. 9. A victory for either fighter would shake up the rankings, adding to the excitement surrounding what’ll surely be a thrilling bout.

Unsurprisingly, Emmett vs. Topuria doesn’t have any shortage of betting opportunities. Here’s a look at the latest odds for the UFC on ABC 5 main event, as well as a prediction and the best bet(s) for the fight.

Emmett vs Topuria— Tale of the Tape

Josh Emmett — Ilia Topuria

• Record: 18-3 — 13-0
• Height: 5’6” — 5’7”
• Reach: 70” — 69”
• Weight: 145lbs — 145lbs
• Age: 38 — 26
• Fighting Stance: Orthodox — Orthodox
• Knockouts: 6 — 4

UFC on ABC 5: Emmett vs Topuria Odds (as of Wednesday, June 21 at 9:29 a.m.)

Moneyline

• Josh Emmett -340
• Ilia Topuria +255

Will the Fight Go the Distance?

• No -950
• Yes +520

How Will the Fight End?

• KO/TKO -105
• Submission +130
• Points +500

What Round Will the Fight End?

• Round 1 +100
• Round 2 +320
• Round 3 +750
• Round 4 +1100
• Round 5 TBD

Emmett vs Topuria Fighter History

Having yet to lose in his MMA career, it’s not a shock to see Topuria as the clear-cut favorite ahead of this weekend. The talented 26-year-old fighter is currently available at -340 odds to win the UFC on ABC 5 main event, carrying an implied win probability of 77.3%.

Topuria made a name for himself around the world, finding success in countries like Spain, Belgium, and Colombia before joining the UFC in 2020. His tenure couldn’t have gone better as he’s already 5-0 in the promotion, which includes his finishing the last four opponents put in his way.

After knocking out Jai Herbert in his lightweight debut, Topuria returned to the featherweight division to take on Bryce Mitchell at UFC 282. Mitchell didn’t last long, finding himself tapping out to an arm-triangle choke in the second round to give Topuria the submission win and ‘performance of the night’ honors.

Standing opposite Topuria is Emmett, who’s amassed a solid 9-3 record in the UFC. He’s stood in the cage with some tough competitors and even went on a 5-0 run from 2019 to 2022, helping him rise up the featherweight rankings.

Emmett’s impressive streak wound up paying off, earning him a crack at the interim UFC Featherweight Championship in UFC 284’s co-main event. Unfortunately, the “Fighting Falmer” couldn’t get the job done against Yair Rodriguez, losing by submission in Round 2.

Although Emmett has the experience edge in this fight, he’s 12 years older than his counterpart. He’s also less accurate with his striking (37%) than Topuria (49%) while also absorbing more significant strikes per minute (4.43 vs. 2.75).

The grappling edge also goes to Topuria, who averages 2.45 takedowns and 2.5 submissions per 15 minutes, whereas Emmett only averages 1.07 and 0.1, respectively.

UFC on ABC 5 Betting Trends and Markets for Emmett vs Topuria

With the moneyline being lopsided, there isn’t a ton of value unless you’re picking Emmett to pull off an upset. Fortunately, there’s a plethora of Emmett vs Topuria markets for bettors to take advantage of ahead of UFC on ABC 5.

For starters, the most likely method of victory for this fight is Topuria winning by submission at +150 odds. Eight of his previous 13 victories have come by submission and it was already mentioned that he most recently tapped out Mitchell.

As for Emmett, his most likely method of victory is winning by KO/TKO at +500. He’s picked up three of his last six wins by knockout and knows how to trade blows with the best of them. Nevertheless, it’ll take a lot for him to be the first fighter to finish Topuria.

If you’re looking for even more value behind a finish, Topuria is favored to win by submission in Round 1 at +330 odds when it comes to method/round combo betting. Of his eight career submission victories, six have come in the opening round.

Meanwhile, Emmett’s top method/round option is a KO/TKO victory in Round 1 at +1700. Four of his six knockout wins took place in the first frame, however, he hasn’t accomplished the feat since 2019.

Emmett vs Topuria UFC on ABC 5 Fight Prediction

As fun as upsets can be, I don’t see Emmett having it in him this weekend. Topuria not only has momentum and an undefeated streak on his side, but he also boasts superior striking and grappling skills. Whether he goes the distance or finishes Emmett, I expect Topuria to still be undefeated when UFC on ABC 5 goes off the air.

As for the best bet, I’m taking Topuria winning by submission at +150. Again, he’s racked up submission victories throughout his career and now faces Emmett, who was just submitted in his latest outing. Being a clear-cut better grappler than his opponent, I expect Topuria to make light work of Emmett.

UFC on ABC 5 Event Details

When is UFC on ABC 5?

UFC on ABC 5 will take place on Saturday, June 17, 2023.

Where is UFC on ABC 5?

UFC on ABC 5 will take place at VyStar Veterans Memorial Arena in Jacksonville, Florida.

What time does UFC on ABC 5 start?

• UFC on ABC 5 Preliminary Card Start Time: 11:30 a.m. ET
• Start Time of UFC on ABC 5’s Main Card: 3 p.m. ET

How can I watch UFC on ABC 5?

UFC on ABC 5’s preliminary card can be viewed on ESPN or ESPN+. Once that concludes, the main card action is available on ABC and ESPN+.

Other UFC Stories on Betting News

• UFC on ABC 5 Full Card Preview, Odds, and Schedule