UFC on ABC 5 Preliminary Card Prediction and Best Bets: Where’s the Best Early Value?

UFC on ABC 5 goes down at VyStar Veterans Memorial Arena in Jacksonville, Florida in just over two days. It’s set to be an action-packed afternoon and while a lot of attention is on the main card fights, the nine-bout preliminary card will surely have something for everyone.

Video: UFC on ABC 5: Emmett vs. Topuria media day live stream https://t.co/wUOkOs5nUE

— MMA Junkie (@MMAJunkie) June 21, 2023

Fortunately, Betting News has gathered the latest odds for all of the UFC on ABC 5 preliminary card fights, along with our prediction for each matchup.

UFC on ABC 5 Preliminary Card & Odds (Odds as of Wednesday, June 21)

The UFC on ABC 5 odds listed below are as of 8:14 p.m. on Wednesday, June 21. As of writing, only the moneyline odds are available.

Welterweight: Neil Magny (-180) vs. Phil Rowe (+140)

This weekend’s preliminary card is highlighted by Neil Magny (27-10) and Phil Rowe (10-3) colliding in a welterweight showdown. Magny needs a rebound performance after being submitted by Gilbert Burns at UFC 283 while Rowe looks to extend his winning streak to four straight fights.

I wouldn’t be shocked if Rowe picks up the upset in Jacksonville. He’s looked impressive lately, having knocked out his last three opponents. Meanwhile, Magny has been submitted twice in his last three fights and could struggle to match Rowe blow-for-blow if the fight heads in that direction.

Sometimes you can’t go wrong riding the hot hand.

Best Bet: Phil Rowe to Win Outright (+140)

Flyweight: Zhalgas Zhumagulov (-220) vs. Joshua Van (+168)

Zhalgas Zhumagulov (14-8) is the clear favorite in his flyweight fight against Joshua Van (7-1) Saturday. Having said that, Zhumagulov has lost three straight fights and is 1-5 in his previous six. On the other hand, this meeting marks Van’s UFC debut after finishing his latest five opponents.

Zhumagulov has the odds on his side due to experience, but I can’t bring myself to back him to win. He just hasn’t been able to get the job done in the UFC and can’t get the judges on his side no matter how often he goes the distance.

Van is hungry and ready to make a mark while his recent momentum puts him in a good spot to take advantage of his opponent’s slump.

Best Bet: Joshua Van to Win Outright (+168)

Heavyweight: Austen Lane (+144) vs. Justin Tafa (-186)

The heavyweight bout between Austen Lane (12-3) and Justin Tafa (6-3) is shaping up to be the hardest-hitting matchup at UFC on ABC 5. Lane has been on fire, winning his last six fights with each of the last four coming via KO/TKO. Meanwhile, Tafa has notched back-to-back knockout wins over Harry Hunsucker and Parker Porter.

I predict that Tafa will emerge as the victor from this heavyweight collision. The 29-year-old has defeated tougher opponents than Lane, who only has two UFC fights under his belt with both of those occurring on Dana White’s Contender Series.

Considering how Hunsucker and Porter couldn’t even make it out of the first round, I won’t be shocked if Tafa ends this one early.

Best Bet: Justin Tafa to Win Outright (-186)

Welterweight: Randy Brown (-265) vs. Wellington Turman (+200)

Randy Brown (16-5) must prove himself after a submission loss to Jack Della Maddalena at UFC 284 snapped the former’s four-fight winning streak. On the flip side, Turman is also coming off a defeat, having fallen to Andre Petroski by unanimous decision back in November.

There are a few reasons why I see Brown winning here. For starters, he has the physical advantage, standing three inches taller with a six-inch reach advantage. Secondly, he is the better striker, landing 4.39 significant strikes per minute while having six knockout victories to his name.

After Turman has been knocked out twice in his past five outings, I don’t see him surviving Brown’s onslaught.

Best Bet: Randy Brown to Win Outright (-265)

Lightweight: Mateusz Rebecki (-162) vs. Loik Radzhabov (+126)

Mateusz Rebecki (17-1) has been one of the hottest fighters in MMA, winning his 14th fight in a row in the form of a unanimous decision victory against Nick Fiore five months ago. Standing in his way at UFC on ABC 5 is Loik Radzhabov (17-4-1), who overcame Esteban Ribovics by points in his debut at UFC 285.

How it started ➡️ how it ended ?

What a performance by Mateusz Rebecki! #DWCS pic.twitter.com/etRLCq1qkS

— ESPN+ (@ESPNPlus) August 31, 2022

As good as Radzhabov has been, there’s a reason why Rebecki hasn’t lost in nearly a decade — he’s just that good. Rebecki nearly doubles Radzhabov’s significant strikes landed per minute and should be able to weather any storm, boasting a 62% strike defense rate.

With 10 finishes (eight by KO/TKO, two by submission) in his last 12 fights, it’s hard to doubt Rebecki at UFC on ABC 5.

Best Bet: Mateusz Rebecki to Win Outright (-162)

Women’s Strawweight: Tabatha Ricci (-130) vs. Gillian Robertson (+102)

Tabatha Ricci (8-1) heads into Saturday’s action as the slight favorite after winning her last three outings. Standing in the opposite corner is Gillian Robertson (12-7), who’s coming off back-to-back submission victories against Mariya Agapova and Piera Rodriguez.

Although Robertson has shown promise, I’m siding with Ricci. She’s defeated solid opponents in her last two fights, defeating Polyana Viana by points before submitting former UFC Women’s Strawweight Championship challenger Jessica Penne.

Also boasting the grappling prowess to tire Robertson out, Ricci has what it takes to stand tall when all is said and done.

Best Bet: Tabatha Ricci to Win Outright (-130)

Lightweight: Trevor Peek (-118) vs. Jose Mariscal (-108)

Trevor Peek (8-0, 1NC) aims to remain undefeated at UFC On ABC 5, having most recently knocked Erick Gonzalez out at UFC Fight Night 220. Meanwhile, Jose Mariscal (13-6, 1NC) is slated to make his debut following a trio of second-round knockout wins.

In what should be a hard-hitting contest, I’m taking Peek to continue his run. He’s knocked out each of his last eight opponents, which includes a pair of KO/TKO victories at the UFC level. Mariscal has yet to show what he can do in the world’s top MMA promotion. Until he proves that he can hang with the best, I’m fading him as a betting option.

Best Bet: Trevor Peek to Win Outright (-118)

Featherweight: Jamall Emmers (-215) vs. Jack Jenkins (+164)

Jamall Emmers (19-6) is still searching for consistency in the UFC. He most recently beat Khusein Askhabov by unanimous decision back in February, leaving time to tell if he can build a winning streak. He faces a tough test in Jack Jenkins (11-2), who is 8-0 in his last eight fights while beginning his UFC career with back-to-back victories.

I can see another upset happening in this featherweight clash. Jenkins is the more accurate striker (69% vs. 50%) and is a beast when it comes to grappling, averaging 4.07 takedowns with 72% accuracy per 15 minutes. Emmers is a solid grappler, too, but it’s clear that he’s too inconsistent to trust.

At the end of the day, I can see this fight going the distance, resulting in a Jenkins victory due to his more accurate striking and ability to survive a beating.

Best Bet: Jack Jenkins to Win Outright (+164)

Flyweight: Tatsuro Taira (-280) vs. Kleydson Rodrigues (+210)

It’s not hard to see why oddsmakers clearly favor Tatsuro Taira (13-0). The 23-year-old Japanese combatant has won 13 straight fights to begin his MMA career and heads into UFC on ABC 5 following back-to-back submission wins over C.J. Vergara and Jesus Santos Aguilar. At the same time, Kleydson Rodrigues (8-2) has his eyes on an upset win after most recently knocking Shannon Ross out at UFC 284.

While Taira must lose one day, Saturday won’t feature that moment. His superior grappling (2.62 takedowns and 3.7 submissions per 15 mins) can’t be understated, especially against an opponent who’s more of a striker. Considering that Taira only absorbs 1.05 significant blows per minute, he can handle whatever Rodrigues dishes out.

As much as the underdog will push, Taira will survive.

Best Bet: Tatsuro Taira to Win Outright (-280)

UFC on ABC 5 Event Details

When is UFC on ABC 5?

UFC on ABC 5 will take place on Saturday, June 17, 2023.

Where is UFC on ABC 5?

UFC on ABC 5 will take place at VyStar Veterans Memorial Arena in Jacksonville, Florida.

What time does UFC on ABC 5 start?

• UFC on ABC 5 Preliminary Card Start Time: 11:30 a.m. ET
• Start Time of UFC on ABC 5’s Main Card: 3 p.m. ET

How can I watch UFC on ABC 5?

UFC on ABC 5’s preliminary card can be viewed on ESPN or ESPN+. Once that concludes, the main card action is available on ABC and ESPN+.

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