UFC Vegas 74 Preliminary Card, Prediction and Best Bets: Where’s the Best Early Value?

UFC Vegas 74 is less than 72 hours away, creating a buzz across the MMA world. There’s something for everyone on the card, which also includes a handful of interesting preliminary matchups that die-hard combat sports enthusiasts don’t want to miss.

UFC is BACK!??#UFCVegas74 take over the Apex this Saturday and here is an early look at the fights from @devplat https://t.co/v8nBmSoIUz

— Betting News (@YourBettingNews) May 30, 2023

Fortunately, Betting News has gathered the latest odds for all of UFC Vegas 73’s preliminary and early prelims fights, along with our prediction for each matchup.

UFC Vegas 74 Preliminary Card & Odds (Odds as of Thursday, June 1)

The UFC Vegas 74 odds listed below are via BetOnline Sportsbook.

Lightweight: Jamie Mullarkey (-500) vs. Muhammadjon Naimov (+340)

Jamie Mullarkey (16-5) was supposed to fight Guram Kutateladze this weekend, however, the bout was scrapped for undisclosed reasons. Instead, Mullarkey will face Muhammadjon Naimov in lightweight competition.

Mullarkey has looked good recently, going 4-1 in his last five fights while winning twice by TKO and another two times by points. Meanwhile, Naimov makes his UFC return on a three-fight winning streak that saw him finish two of those opponents.

With Naimov taking this fight on short notice, I’m backing Mullarkey as the likely victor here. He has more experience than Naimov, who lost his only previous UFC fight on Dana White’s Contender Series three years ago.

With no other betting options available as of writing, taking Mullarkey on the moneyline is the only worthwhile bet here.

Best Bet: Jamie Mullarkey to Win Outright (-500)

Bantamweight: John Castaneda (-136) vs. Muin Gafurov (+108)

After back-to-back finishes over Eddie Wineland and Miles Jones, John Castaneda (19-6) was brought back to earth with a KO loss to Daniel Santos in October. Meanwhile, Muin Gafurov (18-4) hopes to make an impact in his promotional return at UFC Vegas 74.

Even though Castaneda has more UFC experience, I’m taking Gafurov to pull off the upset. He’s a grappling beast and will make life hell for Castaneda, who’s been takedown at least once in four of his past five fights. Gafurov has also picked up back-to-back knockout wins, putting him in a good place to take advantage of his foe’s recent KO loss.

Best Bet: Muin Gafurov to Win Outright (+108)

Heavyweight: Andrei Arlovski (+102) vs. Don'Tale Mayes (-130)

Andrei Arlovski (34-21, 2NC) aims to return to his winning ways after a submission loss to Marcos Rogerio de Lima ended his four-fight winning streak. On the flip side, Mayes is gunning for his first win in nearly two years after most recently falling to Augusto Sakai by unanimous decision.

With both fighters averaging similar striking numbers, I’m going with the heavyweight with more recent success and that’s Arlovski. Not only that, but he’s also a former UFC Heavyweight Champion, and even if his best days are in the rearview, he can still do some damage in the cage.

Best Bet: Andrei Arlovski to Win Outright (+102)

Women’s Strawweight: Elise Reed (-136) vs. Jinh Yu Frey (+106)

At UFC Vegas 74, Elise Reed (6-3) looks to avoid back-to-back losses after submitting to Loma Lookboonmee at UFC 284. At the same time, Jinh Yu Frey (11-8) heads into the week after suffering two consecutive losses, dropping to 2-4 in her previous six fights.

I have a hard time having faith in Frey after back-to-back losses, whereas Reed has proven that she can rebound from the hands of defeat. Reed is also seven years younger than her opponent while having better accuracy when it comes to striking (52% vs. 44%) and takedowns (100% vs. 33%).

With a well-balanced arsenal, look for Reed to return to the win column.

Best Bet: Elise Reed to Win Outright (-136)

Bantamweight: Daniel Santos (-230) vs. Johnny Munoz Jr. (+176)

Daniel Santos (11-2) is on fire, having finished off three of his past four opponents (two by KO/TKO, one by submission) ahead of the weekend. Time will tell if he can keep things going against Johnny Munoz Jr. (12-2), who’s coming off a unanimous decision win over Liudvik Sholinian.

While Munoz is a talented fighter, he just doesn’t have the endurance to survive Santos, who averages 4.82 significant strikes per minute. Munoz will do whatever he can to get the opposition on the ground, but all it will take is one perfectly-timed blow from Santos to take home the victory.

Best Bet: Daniel Santos to Win Outright (-230)

Bantamweight: Da'Mon Blackshear (+124) vs. Luan Lacerda (-158)

Da’Mon Blackshear (12-5-1) has gone winless in his last two fights, drawing Youssef Zalal before losing to Farid Basharat by points. Luan Lacerda (12-2) also heads into UFC Vegas 74 following a loss, losing to Cody Stamann by unanimous decision almost five months ago.

Blackshear simply doesn’t have the grappling defense to win this fight. Lacerda knows that the key to victory is taking his opponent down, which shouldn’t be an issue considering that he averages a takedown per 15 minutes and has 10 submission victories to his name.

Blackshear hasn’t been submitted before, but Lacerda knows there’s a first time for everything.

Best Bet: Luan Lacerda to Win Outright (-158)

Light Heavyweight: Philipe Lins (+114) vs. Maxim Grishin (-146)

Philipe Lins (16-5) pushes for his third victory in a row when he faces Maxim Grishin (32-9-2), who’s gone 2-2 in his first four UFC fights.

I predict that Grishin will be victorious in Sin City. While Lins is solid, he absorbs 4.18 significant blows per minute, which could be a problem against Grishin, who averages 3.40 strikes with 52% accuracy while also having 16 KO/TKO wins under his belt. I’m just not sure that Lins’ body can survive all three rounds.

Best Bet: Maxim Grishin to Win Outright (-146)

UFC Vegas 74 Event Details

When is UFC Vegas 74?

UFC Vegas 74 will take place on Saturday, June 3, 2023.

Where is UFC Vegas 74?

UFC Vegas 74 will take place at the Apex in Las Vegas, Nevada.

What time does UFC Vegas 74 start?

• UFC Vegas 74 Preliminary Card Start Time: 6 p.m. ET
• Start Time of UFC Vegas 74’s Main Card: 9 p.m. ET

How can I watch UFC Vegas 74?

Both the UFC Vegas 74 preliminary and main cards can be viewed exclusively on ESPN and ESPN+.

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