UFC Vegas 75 Preliminary Card Prediction and Best Bets: Where’s the Best Early Value?

UFC Vegas 75 is only two days away, bringing another night of thrilling action to MMA fans everywhere. Although the majority of attention has been on the main card, the preliminary card also contains several matchups worth checking out.

Two former middleweight title challengers battle it out this Saturday ?? #UFCVegas75 pic.twitter.com/wlnLeHSFvF

— UFC (@ufc) June 12, 2023

Fortunately, Betting News has gathered the latest odds for all of UFC Vegas 75’s preliminary and early prelims fights, along with our prediction for each matchup.

UFC Vegas 75 Preliminary Card & Odds (Odds as of Wednesday, June 14)

The UFC Vegas 75 odds listed below are as of 11:01 a.m. on Wednesday, June 14. As of writing, only the moneyline odds are available.

Bantamweight: Raoni Barcelos (-245) vs. Miles Johns (+186)

Veteran bantamweights Raoni Barcelos (17-4) and Miles Johns (13-2) will do battle at UFC Vegas 75. Barcelos has lost three of his past four outings, most recently losing to Umar Nurmagomedov via first-round knockout in January. Meanwhile, Johns is 3-1 in his past four outings and is coming off a unanimous decision win against Vince Morales.

Although Johns has three wins in his last four outings, those victories came against opponents who are a combined 4-12 in the UFC. Barcelos is a tough customer who averages 5.69 significant strikes per minute with 52% accuracy and is a better grappler than his opponent.

At the end of the day, I see Johns being brought back to reality against his toughest challenge to date.

Best Bet: Raoni Barcelos to Win Outright (-245)

Flyweight: Jimmy Flick (+200) vs. Alessandro Costa (-265)

Jimmy Flick (16-6) hopes to return to the win column after a TKO loss to Charles Johnson ended his winning streak of four consecutive fights. Meanwhile, Alessandro Costa (12-3) was knocked out by Amir Albazi in his most recent bout back in December.

I’m taking Costa to win this fight. Flick just absorbs too many hits for my liking, getting out-struck 55-13 in his last two fights. Although Costa doesn’t average a ton of strikes in this UFC, he does have three knockout wins in his previous five matchups. I see him landing some solid shots early on before taking Flick out.

Best Bet: Alessandro Costa to Win Outright (-265)

Bantamweight: Kang Kyung-ho (+144) vs. Cristian Quinonez (-186)

Kang Kyung-ho (18-9, 1NC) is in the middle of the best run of his UFC career, going 4-1 in his last five fights while coming off a unanimous decision win over Danaa Batgerel. On the flip side, Cristian Quinonez (18-3) rides into UFC Vegas 75 on a five-fight winning streak.

Kang is a tough competitor, but Quinonez has what it takes the weather the storm. The latter averages 5.21 significant strikes per minute, which is nearly three more than the underdog. Even with Kang being a solid grappler, Quinonez’s 100% takedown defense proves that he can stay on his feet.

I could see this one going the distance, but Quinonez will emerge the victor.

Best Bet: Cristian Quinonez to Win Outright (-186)

Flyweight: Carlos Hernandez (+100) vs. Denys Bondar (-128)

Carlos Hernandez (8-2) is the underdog this weekend after submitting to Allan Nascimento five months ago. Denys Bondar (14-3) is also coming off a loss, having been knocked out by Malcolm Gordon at UFC Fight Night 200.

Although Bondar is the favorite, I’m taking Hernandez to pull off the upset. Bondar hasn’t fought since February 2022 and could be rusty. It remains to be seen if he has the cardio to handle Hernandez, who has strong grappling skills that he uses to wear his opponents down.

If Bondar shows cage rust, it’s going to be hard to come out on top.

Best Bet: Carlos Hernandez to Win Outright (+100)

Flyweight: Zhalgas Zhumagulov (-172) vs. Felipe Bunes (+134)

Zhalgas Zhumagulov (14-8) might be the clear favorite, but he hasn’t fought that way lately, dropping five of his previous six fights and the last six in a row. He looks to turn things around at UFC Vegas 75 against Felipe Bunes, who’s set to make his promotional debut.

This is another fight that I could see ending in an upset. Zhumagulov showed promise before he joined the UFC, but he’s done anything but impress as the years have gone by. Meanwhile, Bunes has picked up wins in three of his past four fights, having just TKO’d Yuma Horiuchi at LFA 149.

I see Bunes capitalizing on that momentum to start his UFC career 1-0.

Best Bet: Felipe Bunes to Win Outright (+134)

Women's Flyweight: Tereza Bleda (-265) vs. Gabriella Fernandes (+200)

Tereza Bleda (6-1) hopes to prove herself after suffering her first-ever MMA loss to Natalia Silva (via TKO) at UFC Fight Night 215. Meanwhile, Gabriella Fernandes (8-2) could also use a bounce-back showing after failing in her UFC debut, succumbing to Jasmine Jasudavicius by unanimous decision.

I’ll take Bleda to win this fight. Fernandes didn’t look that great against Jasudavicius, having been taken down four times. Bleda at least scored a takedown and two submissions in her loss to Silva. Furthermore, she’s at least won at the UFC level before.

Until Fernandes shows something worth paying attention to, it’s best to fade her.

Best Bet: Tereza Bleda to Win Outright (-165)

Bantamweight: Dan Argueta (+154) vs. Ronnie Lawrence (-200)

After losing in his UFC debut, Dan Argueta (9-1) got his win back with a victory against Nick Aguirre via points. At the same time, Ronnie Lawrence (8-2) saw his five-fight winning streak come to an end with a loss to Saidyokub Kakhramonov back in July 2022.

With Lawrence coming off a loss and having not fought in nearly a year, I’m taking Argueta to win. He’s at least fought within the last calendar year and only has one loss to his name. Six of his nine victories have come by some form of finish, so look for Argueta to send a message with a decisive win over Lawrence.

Best Bet: Dan Argueta to Win Outright (+154)

Light Heavyweight: Zac Pauga (+154) vs. Modestas Bukauskas (-200)

Zac Pauga (6-1) heads into UFC Vegas 75 following his unanimous decision win against Jordan Wright four months ago. Standing in his way is former two-time Cage Warriors Light Heavyweight Champion Modestas Bukauskas (14-5), who defeated Tyson Pedro by points in his company return.

I agree with oddsmakers that Bukauskas is the right pick to win this weekend. After his initial UFC run failed, the 29-year-old won’t let a second chance pass him by. He’s stacked up the momentum with three consecutive victories, giving him the push he needs to beat a more-than-beatable opponent.

Best Bet: Modestas Bukauskas to Win Outright (-200)

UFC Vegas 75 Event Details

When is UFC Vegas 75?

UFC Vegas 75 will take place on Saturday, June 17, 2023.

Where is UFC Vegas 75?

UFC Vegas 75 will take place at the Apex in Las Vegas, Nevada.

What time does UFC Vegas 75 start?

• UFC Vegas 75 Preliminary Card Start Time: 7 p.m. ET
• Start Time of UFC Vegas 75’s Main Card: 10 p.m. ET

How can I watch UFC Vegas 75?

With this not being a pay-per-view event, MMA enthusiasts can catch the full event on either ESPN or ESPN+.

More UFC Stories on Betting News

• UFC Vegas 75 Full Card Preview, Odds, and Schedule
• UFC Vegas 75: Marvin Vettori vs Jared Cannonier Fight Prediction, Odds & Picks