UFC Vegas 76: Sean Strickland vs Abus Magomedov Fight Prediction, Odds & Picks

UFC Vegas 76 is quickly approaching as the top MMA fighters of today, once again, invade the Apex in Las Vegas, Nevada on Saturday, July 1. The action-packed evening will be headlined by a middleweight showdown between former KOTC Middleweight Champion Sean Strickland and white-hot Abus Magomedov.

The pressure of @SStricklandMMA is relentless when he's in that Octagon ?#UFCVegas76 | SATURDAY | Live on @ESPN & @ESPNPlus ? pic.twitter.com/Uc7y6EUNuh

— UFC (@ufc) June 26, 2023

Both men are searching for their first UFC Middleweight Championship opportunity, highlighting the importance of a victory in Sin City. As it stands, Strickland heads into the weekend as the No.7 middleweight while Magomedov has his sights set on finally cracking the top 15.

So, which fighter will take one step closer to achieving their respective goal?

Betting News has put together a Strickland vs. Magomedov preview, ranging from each fighter’s history to the latest betting odds (via BetOnline) and best bets for the UFC Vegas 76 main event.

Strickland vs Magomedov— Tale of the Tape

Sena Strickland — Abus Magomedov

• Record: 26-5 — 25-4-1
• Height: 6’1” — 6’2”
• Reach: 76” — 78”
• Weight: 185lbs — 185lbs
• Age: 32 — 32
• Fighting Stance: Orthodox — Orthodox
• Knockouts: 10 — 14

UFC Vegas 76: Strickland vs Magomedov Odds (as of Tuesday, June 27 at 8:33 p.m.)

Moneyline

• Sean Strickland -146
• Abus Magomedov +126

Will the Fight Go the Distance?

• No -160
• Yes +130

Round Total

• Over 3.5 Rounds (-150)
• Under 3.5 Rounds (+120

Strickland vs Magomedov Fighter History

Oddsmakers are predicting a relatively close matchup to headline UFC Vegas 76. Strickland’s -146 moneyline odds to defeat Magomedov carry an implied win probability of just 59.4%.

Strickland’s a BJJ expert who’s won his fair share of fights in the UFC, going 13-5 in 18 outings thus far. He truly began turning heads from October 2018 to February 2022 when he racked up six wins in a row, winning twice by TKO and four times by points.

Unfortunately, the New Bern, North Carolina native’s luck came to an end last year. He suffered a first-round knockout loss to Alex Pereira at UFC 276 only to come up short against Jared Cannonier (via split decision) five months later.

Strickland then shocked the world just a month after his loss, replacing Kelvin Gastelum in a light heavyweight fight against Nassourdine Imavov. The 32-year-old weathered the storm, defeating Imavov by unanimous decision. Only time will tell if Strickland can capitalize on that momentum.

Sean Strickland doesn't do 'normal' sparring sessions ?

?: Sean Strickland #UFCVegas76 | Saturday | BT Sport 1 pic.twitter.com/7V5yn6oNki

— UFC on BT Sport (@btsportufc) June 27, 2023

Despite his status as the underdog, it’d be wise not to underestimate Magomedov at UFC Vegas 76. The Russian phenom has made a living off of finishing his opponents, having amassed 14 of his 25 career wins by knockout and another six by submission.

Magomedov is also in the midst of the best run of his career, going 12-1-1 in his previous 14 bouts. All but one of those victories came by a finish and he heads into this weekend having won his last three fights in a row.

The latest of the aforementioned wins came in his UFC debut back in September. Magomedov didn’t waste any time making an impact, only taking 19 seconds to knock out Dustin Stoltzfus.

Even though Magomedov has been impressive, his opponent doesn’t have much respect for him. When speaking to MMA reporter Helen Lee earlier this month, Strickland referred to Magomedov as a ‘no name,’ upset that he isn’t facing a top-10 fighter. Perhaps the Russian will use the remark as fuel to pull off an upset.

UFC 76 Betting Trends and Markets for Strickland vs Magomedov

With how close the moneyline odds are, there’s actual value to betting on Strickland vs Magomedov outright. Nevertheless, some bettors provide a chance to win more. Fortunately, BetOnline boasts a wide variety of markets heading into UFC Vegas 76.

For example, the sportsbook favors that this fight won’t go the distance at -160 odds. It isn’t too surprising given both fighters’ finishing abilities. Only two of Magomedov’s last 14 fights have gone the distance six of Strickland’s previous 10 have done the same.

Speaking of how the main event ends, Strickland is favored to win by points at +210 odds. A long fight favors ‘Tarzan’ as he owns a 6-1 record in his last seven fights that have gone the distance.

Meanwhile, Magomedov’s top method of victory is to win by KO/TKO at +235. Again, the veteran fighter has racked up 14 knockout victories over his 13-year career. On top of that, Strickland has been knocked out twice — including as recently as in July 2022.

Interestingly enough, if the fight doesn’t go the distance, Magomedov has better odds to win (-145) than Strickland (+125).

Strickland vs Magomedov UFC Vegas 76 Fight Prediction

I like the idea of Magomedov pulling off the upset at UFC Vegas 76. Not only does the underdog have the strength and side edge, but there’s also the fact that Strickland has lost his last two middleweight fights. One of those losses came by knockout, which doesn’t look good now that he’s about to take on a knockout artist.

It’ll be a competitive match, but it could be over quickly if Strickland doesn’t take Magomedov seriously.

For the best bet, I’m taking Magomedov to win outright. You can’t go wrong with +126 moneyline odds, however, if you’re looking for more value, I don't mind Magomedov winning by KO/TKO at +235 odds either. Strickland can’t match him shot for shot and as long as things don’t wind up on the mat, Magomedov has what it takes to finish his opponent.

UFC Vegas 76 Event Details

When is UFC Vegas 76?

UFC Vegas 76 will take place on Saturday, July 1, 2023.

Where is UFC Vegas 76?

UFC Vegas 76 will take place at the Apex in Las Vegas, Nevada.

What time does UFC Vegas 76 start?

• UFC Vegas 76 Preliminary Card Start Time: 4 p.m. ET
• Start Time of UFC Vegas 76’s Main Card: 7 p.m. ET

How can I watch UFC Vegas 76?

Both UFC Vegas 76 main and preliminary cards can be viewed on ESPN and ESPN+.

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