UFC Vegas 77: Ottman Azaitar vs Francisco Prado Fight Prediction, Odds & Picks

The UFC Vegas 77 main card is filled with several exciting matchups that will dazzle MMA enthusiasts on Saturday, July 15. One of the more intriguing bouts of the night sees former Brave CF Lightweight Champion Ottman Azaitar taking on up-and-coming prospect Francisco Prado in a three-round fight.

Francisco Prado makes his second walk to the Octagon this weekend at #UFCVegas77

At just 21 years old, the Argentinian finisher has a record of 11-1 with 6 wins by submission & 5 by KO ??

Will Prado get his first UFC win & keep that 100% finish rate alive this Saturday? pic.twitter.com/ZSFzTLxhoQ

— Combat Sports Today ? (@CSTodayNews) July 13, 2023

Both Azaitar and Prado are unranked when it comes to the UFC’s lightweight division rankings. They’ve both shown flashes of potential in the past, leaving time to tell if either fighter is capable of a performance this weekend that lands them a top-15 spot when the dust clears.

Betting News has put together an Azaitar vs. Prado preview, ranging from each fighter’s history to the latest betting odds (via BetOnline) and best bets for the UFC Vegas 77 main card clash.

Azaitar vs Prado— Tale of the Tape

Ottman Azaitar — Francisco Prado

• Record: 13-1 — 11-1
• Height: 5’8” — 5’10”
• Reach: 71” — 69”
• Weight: 155lbs — 155lbs
• Age: 33 — 21
• Fighting Stance: Switch — Orthodox
• Knockouts: 10 — 5

UFC Vegas 77: Azaitar vs Prado Odds (as of Thursday, July 13 at 10:36 a.m.)

Moneyline

• Ottman Azaitar -116
• Francisco Prado -104

Will the Fight Go the Distance?

• No -450
• Yes +325

Round Total

• Over 1.5 Rounds (+150)
• Under 1.5 Rounds (-180)

Azaitar vs Prado Fighter History

BetOnline’s Azaitar vs Prado odds paint it as a fight that could go either way. Azaitar is the slim favorite at -116 odds, which carries an implied win probability of just 53.7% at UFC Vegas 77.

Azaitar had a thrilling start to his MMA career, racking up an 11-0 record as he finished opponents all across the globe. Eventually, more and more people took notice of his talents and the German combatant finally joined the UFC in 2019.

Azaitar’s run couldn’t have started off better, scoring back-to-back first-round knockout wins over Teemu Packalen and Khama Worthy. Unfortunately, he ran into some trouble when he was released (before later being rehired) for a breach of COVID-19 protocols.

The 33-year-old made his octagon return at UFC 281 after a two-year absence. The bout didn’t go the way he wanted as Azaitar was knocked out by one of Matt Frevola’s punches, leaving the form in need of a rebound showing this weekend.

Funny enough, Prado can somewhat relate to his opponent’s experience. The Argentinian fighter also experienced a perfect start to his MMA career, racking up 11 consecutive victories across various promotions.

Much to his dismay, Prado also tasted his first-ever loss in his most recent outing. The fight was his UFC back in February, which saw him come up short against Jamie Mullarkey via unanimous decision.

Although Prado has the height and youth advantage in this matchup, that’s about all he has going for him statistically. Azaitar lands more significant strikes per minute (6.97 vs. 1.87) with better accuracy (54% vs. 37%), and has much better takedown defense, too (100% vs. 25%).

UFC Vegas 77 Betting Trends and Markets for Azaitar vs Prado

With the odds being as close as they are, there’s nothing wrong with a moneyline bet for the Azaitar vs Prado matchup. Having said that, BetOnline has more markets that indicate how the UFC Vegas 77 main card fight may go.

For instance, the sportsbook predicts that this will be a short fight, favoring that it won’t go the distance at -450 odds. In fact, the matchup is favored to last less than 1.5 rounds at -180. A shorter fight shouldn’t come as that much of a surprise, though, considering how both Azaitar and Prado have only gone the distance once each.

Keeping that in mind, Prado is favored to win the fight by KO/TKO at +150 odds. He currently holds five knockout victories to his name and has KO’d two of his last three opponents.

Azaitar’s most likely method of victory is also winning by KO/TKO, albeit at +185 odds instead. Of his 13 career victories, 10 have come by some form of knockout. Furthermore, the Bulldozer knocked out five consecutive opponents before suffering his first-ever loss.

For those looking for a more exact outcome, Prado is favored to win by first-round knockout at +350. For reference, four of his five previous KO/TKO wins occurred in the opening frame.

Azaitar vs Prado UFC Vegas 77 Fight Prediction

In a scrap that’ll likely go either way, I’m taking Azaitar to pick up the win. For starters, he’s already proven that he can win at the UFC level, winning twice by knockout. Meanwhile, Prado has yet to prove that he can handle the best that the sport has to offer. It’s going to be a hard-hitting contest, but Azaitar’s striking skills will lead to victory.

Taking Azaitar at -116 moneyline odds is a viable betting option, however, I’m taking him to win by KO/TKO at +185 instead. Again, he already has two knockout victories in the UFC and KO/TKO’d five straight opponents before his last outing. After Prado was outstruck 59-28 in his debut, I don’t see him being able to handle Azaitar’s barrage this weekend.

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UFC Vegas 77 Event Details

When is UFC Vegas 77?

UFC Vegas 77 will take place on Saturday, July 15, 2023.

Where is UFC Vegas 77?

UFC Vegas 77 will take place at the Apex in Las Vegas, Nevada.

What time does UFC Vegas 77 start?

• UFC Vegas 77’s Preliminary Card Start Time: 7 p.m. ET
• UFC Vegas 77’s Main Card Start Time: 10 p.m. ET

How can I watch UFC Vegas 77?

Both of UFC Vegas 77’s main and preliminary cards can be viewed on ESPN and ESPN+.

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