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UFC Vegas 77 Preliminary Card Prediction and Best Bets: Where’s the Best Early Value?
Written by: Devon Platana
Last Updated:
Read Time: 6 minutes
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UFC Vegas 77 takes place at the Apex in Las Vegas, Nevada tomorrow night. We’ve been covering the main card action throughout the week, however, the preliminary fights can’t be ignored. Sometimes, the early bouts are where the most fun can be had.
As usual, Betting News has gathered the latest odds for all of the UFC Vegas 77 preliminary card fights, along with an expert prediction for each matchup.
UFC 77 Preliminary Card Prediction
The UFC Vegas 77 odds listed below are as of 8:30 p.m. on Thursday, July 13 via BetOnline.
Featherweight: Tucker Lutz (+127) vs. Melsik Baghdasaryan (-147)
The top fight on the preliminary cards sees Tucker Lutz (12-3) going one-on-one with Melsik Baghdasaryan (7-2) in featherweight action. Lultz is coming off a submission loss to Daniel Pineda just over three months ago while Baghdasaryan most recently was submitted by Joshua Culibao at UFC 284.
Baghdasaryan was disappointed by his UFC debut and I believe he has it in him to bounce back. The 31-year-old lands over 1.5 more significant strikes per minute than Lutz does with significantly better accuracy (61% vs. 49%). Baghdasaryan also has good enough takedown defense (76%) to throw Lutz off his grappling game.
Lutz was finished in his last fight and I see Baghdasaryan having the striking ability to knock him out.
Best Bet: Melsik Baghdasaryan by KO/TKO (+215)
Women’s Strawweight: Viktoriia Dudakova (-177) vs. Istela Nunes (+152)
Viktoriia Dudakova (6-0) hopes to remain perfect at UFC Vegas 77 after her unanimous decision win over Maria Silva on Dana White’s Contender Series 2022. Meanwhile, Istela Nunes (6-4, 1NC) has lost three fights in a row and was finished twice in those bouts.
The odds are a lot closer than they should be considering Nunes’ losing streak and the fact that she’s yet to win at the UFC level. She was also taken down seven times over those losses and now faces Dudakova, who averages 4.0 takedowns per 15 minutes. Nunes doesn’t have the grappling defense to prevent this from going to the mat.
Dudakova will have her way with Nunes before ending it with one of her various submission holds.
Best Bet: Viktoriia Dudakova by Submission (+185)
Featherweight: Austin Lingo (+205) vs. Melquizael Costa (-240)
Melquizael Costa (19-6) returns to the octagon for the first time since January, when he was submitted by Thiago Moises at UFC 283. Austin Lingo (9-2) is also in need of redemption following his submission defeat at the hands of Nate Landwehr back in March.
Even though Costa is the heavy favorite, I could see Lingo pulling off the upset. Four takedowns played a role in Costa’s loss to Moises while Lingo averages 0.55 takedowns with 66% accuracy per 15 minutes. He also possesses two UFC wins under his belt and has bounced back from defeat before, whereas Costa’s only experience is losing his debut.
I’m taking Lingo outright on the moneyline, but if you’re feeling unsure, I suggest taking the fight to go the distance as a safer option.
Best Bet: Austin Lingo Outright (+205) or Fight to Go the Distance – Yes (-120)
Lightweight: Evan Elder (-300) vs. Genaro Valdez (+250)
Evan Elder’s (7-2) UFC career hasn’t begun the way he hoped, beginning things with back-to-back losses. He now gets to face Genaro Valdez (10-2), who has also lost two straight fights after a perfect start to his career.
This fight doesn’t do a lot for me as neither man necessarily looked good in defeat. I suppose Elder has the striking advantage because he lands more blows with better accuracy, however, Valdez’s grappling numbers are better across the board.
However, if you’re dead-set on betting on this fight, I suggest taking Elder to win inside the distance.
Best Bet: Evan Elder Wins Inside Distance (-140)
Flyweight: Tyson Nam (+315) vs. Azat Maksum (-415)
Tyson Nam (21-13-1) heads into UFC Vegas 77 looking to return to the win column after a technical submission loss to Bruno Gustavo da Silva four months ago. Rebounding won’t be easy, though, as he takes on the undefeated Azat Maksum (16-0), who is making his highly-anticipated debut.
There’s not a lot of tape on Maksum, but his numbers speak for themselves. He finished 12 of his 16 previous opponents, winning five times by knockout and seven via submission. Three of his last four opponents didn’t even survive the first round.
I’m going to get a little spicy with this one and say Maksum’s trend of early finishes continues. He’ll have this fight finished in the opening round.
Best Bet: Azat Maksum Wins in Round 1 (+265)
Lightweight: Alexander Munoz (-186) vs. Carl Deaton (+161)
Alexander Munoz (6-2) is trending in the wrong direction with a pair of losses in his first two UFC fights. Deaton can relate to that feeling, though, as he lost his debut to Joe Solecki by technical submission.
Munoz is an easy pick for me in this fight. Deaton hardly impressed in his debut, throwing one strike while getting takedown twice and placed into three submission holds over two rounds. Munoz, at least, survived his two three fights and even had a few nice grappling moments.
I expect a back-and-forth fight with Munoz’s getting help from the judges in the end.
Best Bet: Alexander Munoz by Points (+150)
Women’s Bantamweight: Ashlee Evans-Smith (+200) vs. Ailin Perez (-235)
Ashlee Evans-Smith’s (6-5) return to the bantamweight division didn’t do her any favors, losing by points to Norma Dumont in 2020. Yes; Evans-Smith’s last fight was three years ago. Meanwhile, Ailin Perez (7-2) is coming off a submission loss to Stephanie Egger back in September.
A near-three-year layoff is a long time and I don’t know if Evans-Smith has it in her to win. She didn’t particularly look good the last time we saw her and the layoff could be too much to overcome. Perez has at least fought recently and even landed 47% of her strikes with 71% takedown defense in defeat.
Evans-Smith is known for her ability to avoid getting finished, so I’ll take Perez winning by some form of decision at UFC Vegas 77.
Best Bet: Ailin Perez by Points (+165)
UFC Vegas 77 Event Details
When is UFC Vegas 77?
UFC Vegas 77 will take place on Saturday, July 15, 2023.
Where is UFC Vegas 77?
UFC Vegas 77 will take place at the Apex in Las Vegas, Nevada.
What time does UFC Vegas 77 start?
- UFC Vegas 77’s Preliminary Card Start Time: 7 p.m. ET
- UFC Vegas 77’s Main Card Start Time: 10 p.m. ET
How can I watch UFC Vegas 77?
Both of UFC Vegas 77’s main and preliminary cards can be viewed on ESPN and ESPN+.
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Devon is a Master of Journalism graduate who joined the sports betting world in 2020. His favorite leagues to cover are the NHL, NBA and NFL, and has a soft spot for fantasy football specifically. Outside of sports, he enjoys the finer things in life like pasta, live music and getting even more tattoos.
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