Marlon Vera vs Cory Sandhagen UFC on ESPN 43 Fight Prediction, Odds & Picks: Underdog Shocks Oddsmakers

UFC on ESPN 43 invades the AT&T Center in San Antonio, Texas on Saturday, March 25. On a crowd filled with mixed martial arts action, one fight standing out above the rest is the bantamweight main event between Marlon Vera (20-7-1) and former interim UFC Bantamweight title challenger Cory Sandhagen (15-4).

This fight is going to be ???

Marlon Vera ? Cory Sandhagen goes down this Saturday at #UFCSanAntonio ?

Who you got? ?#UFCSanAntonio | Saturday | BT Sport 2 pic.twitter.com/gv3xeN4A1e

— UFC on BT Sport (@btsportufc) March 21, 2023

A victory in San Antonio could do a lot for both fighters. After all, Vera heads into the event as the bantamweight division’s No. 3 fighter while Sandhagen isn’t too far behind at No. 5. Needless to say, MMA enthusiasts everywhere expect the two combatants to give it their all.

There’s no shortage of Vera vs Sandhagen betting markets ahead of UFC on ESPN 43. The good news is that Betting News has you covered. Here’s a look at the bantamweight main event’s latest odds from several sportsbooks, as well as a prediction and the best bet to make.

Marlon Vera vs. Cory Sandhagen — Tale of the Tape

Marlon Vera — Cory Sandhagen

• Record: 20-7-1 — 15-4
• Height: 5’8” — 5’11”
• Reach: 70.5” — 69.5”
• Weight: 135lbs — 135lbs
• Age: 30 — 30
• Fighting Stance: Switch — Switch
• Knockouts: 8 — 7

UFC on ESPN 43: Vera vs Sandhagen Fight Odds (as of Thursday, March 23)

Odds are via our top reviewed and recommended sportsbooks.

BetOnline Sportsbook

• Marlon Vera +136
• Cory Sandhagen -174

Bovada Sportsbook

• Marlon Vera +145
• Cory Sandhagen -170

BetUS

• Marlon Vera +138
• Cory Sandhagen -175

BetMGM

• Marlon Vera +145
• Cory Sandhagen -175

Vera vs Sandhagen Fight Preview

The Vera vs Sandhagen odds across all four highlight sportsbooks slightly vary, but all favor the same fight. Sandhagen has emerged as the unanimous favorite with his shortest odds being -165 on two sportsbooks while the longest being -170 on Caesers Sportsbook.

Sandhagen’s sits at an average of -174 odds across all four sources, carrying an implied winning probability of 63.5%.

Keeping that in mind, winning hasn’t been a sure thing for Sandhagen recently. He’s lost two of his previous three fights, first losing by split decision to T.J. Dillashaw before picking up a unanimous decision loss to Petr Yan in an unsuccessful bid for the interim bantamweight gold.

Sandhagen seems to have put his losing ways behind him, though. He took on Song Yadong in the UFC Vegas 60 main event, TKO’ing the “Kung Fu Kid” in the fourth round. Now, it’s up to Sandhagen to prove whether that victory was a fluke or a sign of better things to come.

Winning is far from a lock for Sandhagen if Vera has anything to say about it. The Ecuadorian fighter has been on fire, winning 10 of his last 12 fights — including the last four in a row.

While a four-fight winning striking is impressive for most fighters, Vera’s dominance elevates his streak. Two of his last four wins have come by knockout while the other two were achieved by knocking the opposition out. On top of that, he also earned ‘performance of the night’ honors in both KO victories.

While Sandhagen averages nearly two more significant strikes per minute, Vera has him beat with 50% striking accuracy. “Chito” also has better takedown accuracy (42%) and defense (68%), giving him the advantage if things head to the mat.

This is also one of the bigger fights of Vera’s career, motivating him to do what he can tp secure the victory. Sandhagen is also motivated to prove that his best days aren’t behind him, creating the perfect storm for what should be an entertaining main event.

Vera vs Sandhagen Betting Markets & Trends for UFC on ESPN 43

As usual, BetOnline Sportsbook offers a variety of Vera vs Sandhagen betting markets in case you wanted some variety ahead of UFC on ESPN 43.

For starters, BetOnline favours that Sandhagen will win by points at +120 odds. While two of his last three fights have gone the distance, Sandhagen hasn’t won by points in nearly four years. This option is likely favored due to the fact that Vera has never been finished in his MMA career.

Speaking of which, Vera’s top victory method is to win by KO/TKO at +430. After all, he’s won two of his lost three outings by knockout and has eight career KO/TKO wins to his name.

Having said that, BetOnline doesn’t see a finish occurring here. The sportsbook favours that the UFC on ESPN 43 headline act will go the distance at -132 odds.

If you’re against the idea of this fight lasting all five rounds, method & round betting is for you. When it comes to this market, Vera is favored to win by first-round knockout at +1800. Of his eight knockout victories, three have come in the first frame.

Despite being the overall favorite, Sandhagen’s top option also projects him to win by KO/TKO in Round 1, albeit at +2500. Like Vera, “Sandman” also has three career first-round knockout victories under his belt.

Vera vs Sandhagen UFC on ESPN 43 Fight Prediction

Even though the odds are in Sandhagen’s favor, I’m back the underdog in San Antonio. Vera’s winning streak cannot be ignored and he isn’t showing any signs of slowing down. He’s finished two of his last three opponents, whereas Sandhagen has come up short in two of his last trio of outings. With the grappling and finishing advantages on his side, Vera is the better pick whether it’s a long or short fight.

As for the best bet, I recommend taking Vera at +145 moneyline odds on either BetMGM or Bovada Sportsbook (where the odds are the longest).

However, if you’re looking for more value, I do like Vera winning by points at +550 odds on BetOnline. Is it a long shot? Yes, but oddsmakers see this fight going the distance and Vera has won by decision twice in his last four outings. With Sandhagen being tough to finish, I wouldn’t be shocked if Vera needs points to get the job done.

UFC UFC on ESPN 43 Event Details

When is UFC on ESPN 43?

UFC on ESPN 43 will take place on Saturday, March 25, 2023.

Where is UFC on ESPN 43?

UFC on ESPN 43 will take place at AT&T Center in San Antonio, Texas.

What time does UFC on ESPN 43 start?

• UFC on ESPN 43 Prelims Start Time: 4 p.m. ET
• Start Time of UFC on ESPN 43’s Main Card: 7 p.m. ET

How can I watch UFC on ESPN 43?

Both the preliminary and main cards will be available on ESPN and ESPN +.