Nascar Xfintiy Series Dead On Tools 250 Predictions, Odds & Picks: Who Will Make the Cut for Phoenix?

Last week, Sam Mayer became the first driver to officially clinch a spot in the Championship 4 of this year’s NASCAR Xfinity Series playoffs, as he took the checkered flag at Homestead. Today, the remainder of the contenders will be determined with the Dead On Tools 250 at Martinsville (3:30 pm ET, USA).

At last week’s Contender Boats 300 at Homestead-Miami Speedway, Mayer picked up his first non-road course win of the season to punch his ticket for a title shot next week at Phoenix Raceway.

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John Hunter Nemechek isn’t officially in, but with a 44-point advantage over Justin Allgaier, only a completely wild series of events would see him miss out.

In the final race of the Round of 12, Mayer won the Drive for the Cure 250 at Charlotte to advance to the Round of 8, after starting the race last in the standings and needing nothing less than a win.

Current NASCAR Xfinity Series Points Standings (Entering the Dead On Tools 250)

1. John Hunter Nemechek – 3154
2. Cole Custer – 3113
3. Austin Hill – 3113
4. Sam Mayer – 3111
5. Justin Allgaier – 3110
6. Sammy Smith – 3064
7. Chandler Smith – 3059
8. Sheldon Creed – 3048

Now he is in the best position in the field, following his win at Homestead.

At the roval, Mayer set himself up well by starting on pole at the roval. Sammy Smith will hope to have the same success after edging Allgaier and Custer to claim pole for the Dead On Tools 250. Those three drivers, as well as Nemechek, who will start fifth, are the top four favorites to make some Martinsville magic today.

Odds to Win the 2023 Dead On Tools 250

Courtesy of Bovada.

• John Hunter Nemechek +275
• Justin Allgaier +300
• Sammy Smith +450
• Cole Custer +550
• Josh Berry +800
• Riley Herbst +1200
• Sam Mayer +1200
• Brandon Jones +1400
• Austin Hill +2500
• Sheldon Creed +3000
• Chandler Smith +3300
• Daniel Hemric +5000
• Brett Moffitt +6000
• Layne Riggs +6000
• Myatt Snider +6000
• Parker Kligerman +6000
• Parker Retzlaff +10000
• Ryan Sieg +10000
• Jeb Burton +30000
• Rajah Carruth +30000

Dead On Tools 250 Predictions and Picks

With Mayer and Nemechek occupying two of the four spots for next Saturday’s championship decider, today is going to be a heartbreaking day for at least one of Custer, Hill, and Allgaier.

Custer had finished in the top six in the first four playoff races and seven of his previous nine races before coming in 13th at Homestead after starting on pole and leading the most laps.

Things could have turned out very differently for Custer, but he hit the wall on lap 151 and suffered a flat tire, which took him out of the lead and out of contention for the win.

HUGE MOMENT for Cole Custer!

He was leading but has a flat tire! #NASCARPlayoffs pic.twitter.com/5keMSgulCT

— NASCAR on NBC (@NASCARonNBC) October 21, 2023

But his performances thus far in the playoffs make him a strong contender for the Dead On Tools 250, as does his third-place finish in the spring race at Martinsville.

Another third-place finish would likely lock him into the Championship 4, and he is +125 at Bovada to hit that target. I’m locking that in, folks.

Finishing position odds are limited to just the top three, so Custer will be my only play in that market for the Dead On Tools 250.

Dead On Tools 250 Starting Lineup (Positions 1-20)

1. Sammy Smith
2. Justin Allgaier
3. Cole Custer
4. Riley Herbst
5. John Hunter Nemechek
6. Brandon Jones
7. Chandler Smith
8. Sheldon Creed
9. Austin Hill
10. Parker Retzlaff
11. Myatt Snider
12. Josh Berry
13. Ryan Sieg
14. Daniel Hemric
15. Parker Kligerman
16. Brett Moffitt
17. Sam Mayer
18. Josh Bilicki
19. Layne Riggs
20. Jeremy Clements

But there is plenty of value to take advantage of elsewhere. After agonizingly missing out on the playoffs, Riley Herbst has put in a strong run over the last several weeks.

In addition to bagging a win in the Alsco Uniforms 302 at Las Vegas, his first career Xfinity Series win in almost 140 career starts, he finished eighth in the playoff opener at Bristol, fourth at the roval, and second last week at Homestead.

For the Dead On Tools 250, Herbst, who will start fourth, is -120 to have a better finish than Mayer, who will start 17th.

But who will take the checkered flag at Martinsville? There are a number of compelling options.

In the spring race, Nemechek took the win, followed by Sammy Smith, Custer, Josh Berry, Brandon Jones, and Allgaier.

Based solely on value, Jones, the winner of the spring race in 2022, and Herbst are the two best options. But based on both value and who I think is most likely to win, Custer and Smith are the picks I’m locking in.

Where to Bet on NASCAR

Many of the top sports betting sites offer a variety of NASCAR betting odds. Throughout the season, you can bet on races like the Daytona 500, Coca-Cola 600, and others, like the Dead On Tools 250.

Along with being able to bet on the winner of each Cup Series, Xfinity Series, and/or Truck Series race, sportsbooks like Bovada offer finishing position odds (top 3, top 5, and/or top 10).

Also, odds on who will finish at the top of the championship standings are available at many reputable sportsbooks.

In addition to Bovada, here are some of the sites that we recommend if you are interested in NASCAR betting:

• BetOnline
• BetUS
• Bookmaker
• MyBookie
• Sportsbetting.ag

If you don’t have an account at a book on this list, check out our reviews to help you determine if it is worth your interest and your betting funds.

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• NASCAR Betting Guide: How to Bet on NASCAR in 2023