Heat vs Cavaliers Prediction, Picks & Props: Cleveland’s Elite Defense Shines at Rocket Mortgage Fieldhouse

The Miami Heat look to solidify their Southeast Division lead when they visit the Cleveland Cavaliers for an NBA showdown slated for Tuesday, Jan. 31. These two sides have already met once this season, resulting in a 113-87 blowout victory for Cleveland, making it interesting to see who wins the latest Heat vs Cavaliers matchup.

The Cleveland Cavaliers are 5.5-point favorites tonight at home against the Miami Heat.

— Danny Cunningham (@RealDCunningham) January 31, 2023

The Heat were riding a three-game winning streak before it was snapped by Sunday’s 122-117 loss to the Charlotte Hornets. Miami led by as many as 13 points in the contest, but it wasn’t enough as the game went on. Only time will tell if the loss to one of the NBA’s worst teams was a fluke or not.

Meanwhile, the Cavaliers are coming off a 122-99 win over the LA Clippers over the weekend. In a game where most of Cleveland’s top players were quiet, it was Cedi Osman that paced his teammates with 29 points on 11-of-13 shooting in 22 minutes played off the bench.

There’s a lot to take in before Tuesday’s Heat vs Cavaliers game. Fortunately, Betting News has gathered the game’s odds while also having a prediction, the best bets and a player prop for tonight’s contest.

Miami Heat vs Cleveland Cavaliers Matchup Information and Betting Odds

Matchup Information

• Matchup: Miami Heat (28-23, 11-14 Away) vs. Cleveland Cavaliers (31-21, 21-5 Home)
• Venue & Location: Rocket Mortgage FieldHouse (Cleveland, Ohio)
• Date: Tuesday, Jan. 31, 2023
• Game Time: 7 p.m. Eastern Time
• Heat vs Cavaliers TV Info: NBA League Pass, Bally Sports Sun, Bally Sports Ohio

Heat vs Cavaliers Odds

Game odds are via BetOnline as of Tuesday, Jan. 31 at 8:44 a.m. ET. Odds from other top online sportsbooks may also be mentioned in this article.

Spread

• Miami Heat +5.5 (-114)
• Cleveland Cavaliers -5.5 (-106)

Over/Under

• Over 211.5 Points (-110)
• Under 211.5 Points (-110)

Moneyline

• Miami Heat +176
• Cleveland Cavaliers -210

Miami Heat vs Cleveland Cavaliers Betting Trends

• Miami is 7-3 straight up in its last 10 games.
• Cleveland is 5-1 straight up in its last six home games.
• Miami is 2-4 against the spread (ATS) in its last six road games.
• Cleveland is 4-13 ATS in its last 17 games played on a Tuesday.
• The total has hit the under in nine of Miami’s last 13 road games against Cleveland.
• The total has hit the over in six of Cleveland’s last nine games against the Eastern Conference.

Heat vs Cavaliers Prediction and Picks

Heat vs Cavaliers Prediction: Cavaliers 113, Heat 106

Heat vs Cavaliers Picks: Cavaliers -5.5 (Best Value: -106 at BetOnline) & Over 211.5 Points Points (Best Value: -110 at BetOnline)

While the Heat are one of the better teams out east, winning tonight will be far from easy. Playing at Rocket Mortgage Fieldhouse has been hell for visiting teams this season and Miami learned that the hard way with its lopsided loss to Cleveland in November.

The Cavaliers are an impressive 21-5 at home this season, having also won five of their last six outings in their arena. One of the reasons why Cleveland has had this success is due to a defense that surrenders only 105.8 points (No. 1) on 46.0% shooting (No. 10) at home.

Furthermore, the Cavs have an impressive plus-8.3 scoring margin at home (No. 4). For reference, the Heat are a minus-1.2 in their last six road games this season and a minus-4.0 in their last four trips to Rocket Mortgage Fieldhouse.

Making matters worse for the Heat is that they’re 2-4 in their last six road games this season.

Another reason to like the Cavaliers is that they tend to get off to a better-than-average start, leading by an average of 0.7 points after the first quarter (No. 13). Meanwhile, the Heat tend to find themselves trailing by 0.4 (No. 20).

The Heat might also be missing their best player as Jimmy Butler is questionable due to a quad contusion. Miami is typically a worse team whenever its star misses time, proven by the Heat being 7-13 in their last 20 games without Butler.

On top of that, the Heat tend to crumble when the odds aren’t in their favor. Miami is just 3-10 (.230) as the underdog during the 2022-23 campaign, whereas Cleveland is 28-13 (.683) as the favorite.

The more I think about it, the more I like the Cavaliers’ chances of winning tonight. They have the superior defense, their top stars are playing well and the lineup will likely be getting a boost from the returning Kevin Love, who missed the last three games due to a back injury. With the Heat missing Butler and struggling on the road lately, there isn’t much to like about them tonight.

As far as the best bets go, Cleveland already won the first Heat vs Cavaliers matchup by 26 points, so covering the 5.5-point spread shouldn’t be an issue.

I also recommend backing the total going over 211.5 points. While they didn’t surpass that in their last meeting, the over has been hit in seven of the last 10 matchups between the Heat and Cavaliers.

Defense will still be at the forefront of this tilt but expected more points than projected.

Best Heat vs Cavaliers Prop Bet

Donovan Mitchell — Under 25.5 Points (-122)

Donovan Mitchell has been terrific in his first season with the Cavs, pacing his teammates with a 27.9 PPG. While that’s more than his projected total for tonight, I’m actually backing the under.

For starters, Mitchell is only averaging 21.8 points over his last eight games, finishing under 25.5 in each of his last four outings. Things won’t get any easier against a Miami defense that surrenders the fifth-fewest points to shooting guards.

Furthermore, Mitchell has only averaged 22.3 PPG in 11 previous games against the Heat, finishing with under 25.5 points in six of those games. As good as he can be when he’s hot, it’s clear that the under is the way to go for this prop.

Other Miami vs Cleveland Resources

• Heat vs Cavaliers Consensus Picks, Score Projections & Betting Stats