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Heat vs Celtics Prediction, Odds & Picks for NBA on ESPN (Oct. 27): Expect a Close Game at TD Garden
Written by: Devon Platana
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Read Time: 5 minutes
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Friday’s NBA schedule is loaded with big-time matchups, including an Eastern Conference showdown between Jimmy Butler’s Miami Heat (1-0) and the star-studded Boston Celtics (1-0).
The Heat look to keep their momentum going following a season-opening 103-102 victory over the Detroit Pistons. Meanwhile, Jayson Tatum’s game-high 34 points led the Celtics to a 108-104 win against the New York Knicks.
BetOnline sees both teams as likely locks to make the 2023-24 playoffs. Boston currently sits at -6600 odds (98.5%) to qualify for the postseason while Miami is available at -700 (87.5%).
Tonight’s Heat vs. Celtics collision — a potential playoff matchup — is also ripe with betting opportunities. So, here’s a look at the game’s latest odds, a prediction, and the best bets you can make.
Heat vs Celtics on ESPN Tonight (Oct. 27)
Matchup Information
- Matchup: Miami Heat (1-0, 0-0 Away) vs. Boston Celtics (1-0, 0-0 Home)
- Venue & Location: TD Garden (Boston, MA)
- Date: Friday, Oct. 27, 2023
- Game Time: 7:30 p.m. Eastern Time
- Heat vs. Celtics TV Channel Info: ESPM
Heat vs Celtics Odds & Spread
NBA game odds courtesy of Bovada as of Thursday, Oct. 26 at 10:23 p.m. ET. Odds from other top online sportsbooks may also be mentioned in this article.
Spread
- Miami Heat +8.5 (-115)
- Boston Celtics -8.5 (-105)
Over/Under
- Over 217 Points (-110)
- Under 217 Points (-110)
Moneyline
- Miami Heat +265
- Boston Celtics -330
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Heat vs Celtics Betting Trends
- Miami is 4-2 straight up in its last six games on a Friday.
- Boston is 12-6 straight up in its last 18 home games.
- Miami is 7-2 ATS in its last nine games against Boston.
- Boston is 1-5-1 ATS in its last seven games as the favorite.
- The total has hit the Under in four of Miami’s last five road games.
- The total has hit the Under in four of Boston’s last five games against Miami.
Heat vs Celtics Prediction & Pick (Oct. 27)
Friday’s home opener isn’t just an ordinary game for the Celtics.
It was almost five months ago to the day that the Celtics met the Heat for Game 7 of the Eastern Conference Finals. Boston failed to show up to play that night, failing the TD Garden faithful in the form of a 103-84 loss as Miami went on to advance to the NBA Finals.
Fast forward to tonight and the Celtics have a chance at revenge.
Things look promising after how well Joe Mazzulla’s team played in the season opener. Not only did Tatum ball out, but Kristaps Prozingis dazzled in his Boston debut, finishing with 30 points and eight rebounds.
And while Jrue Holiday’s nine points were less than stellar, he still generated four blocks and was a key reason why the starting lineup finished the night with a plus-31 plus/minus rating.
Although the Heat are also feeling good after their victory, some things were left to be desired. For starters, the fact that Miami blew a 19-point lead and only one by one point does raise some concern. The Pistons were unable to complete the comeback but a more talented team like the C’s will make the Heat pay.
It didn’t help that Miami was unable to convert on chances. The Heat shot an abysmal 40.2% from the floor and only scored nine points off of the Pistons’ 17 turnovers.
The Celtics, meanwhile at least scored 11 points off as many takeaways and even shot 48.1% on field goals as a team.
Another thing going against the Heat is their injury situation. Josh Richardson (foot) has been ruled out for tonight’s contest while Jaime Jaquez Jr. (groin), Caleb Martin (knee), and Duncan Robinson (foot) will likely be game-time decisions.
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The Celtics are healthier and looked more competent in their season opener, which is why I’m taking them to win. The Heat’s near-blown lead raises red flags, indicating that they likely can’t pull off the upset at TD Garden.
With that being said, I don’t like the Celtics as 8.5-point favorites. They only won by four points in their season opener, barely covering the 3.5-point spread. In fact, Boston is only 1-5-1 ATS in its last seven games as the favorite.
The Heat are also 7-2 ATS in their last nine games against the Celtics, strengthening my belief that the game will be closer than the odds imply.
Heat vs Celtics Prediction: Celtics 110, Heat 104
Best Bet: Heat +8.5 (-110 on Bovada)
Heat vs Celtics Best Player Prop
If you’re looking for a Heat vs. Celtics player prop, run with the Over on Jrue Holiday’s 13.5-point total.
After a disappointing opening-night performance, I see Holiday rebounding tonight. The two-time NBA All-Star averaged 19.3 PPG last season and has played well at TD Garden lately, averaging 22.0 PPG while hitting the Over on this prop on each of his last six outings in Boston.
After Cade Cunningham burned the Heat for 30 points earlier this week, look for Holiday to score more than 13.5 without a sweat.
Bet: Jrue Holiday -13.5 Total Points (-130 on Bovada)
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Devon is a Master of Journalism graduate who joined the sports betting world in 2020. His favorite leagues to cover are the NHL, NBA and NFL, and has a soft spot for fantasy football specifically. Outside of sports, he enjoys the finer things in life like pasta, live music and getting even more tattoos.
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