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Mavericks vs Nuggets Prediction & Best Bets (Nov. 3): Doncic, Jokic Duel to Tip Off Tournament Play in Denver
Written by: Eddie Griffin
Last Updated:
Read Time: 4 minutes
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Tonight, the inaugural NBA in-season tournament will get underway, with the seven games on the schedule counting towards the tournament standings. The most high-profile matchup on the slate sees Luka Doncic and the Dallas Mavericks visit Nikola Jokic and the Denver Nuggets (10:00 pm ET, ESPN).
Through the first week and a half of the new NBA season, the Mavericks (4-0) are one of two undefeated teams, along with the Boston Celtics (4-0).
Like Dallas and Boston, Denver started 4-0 this season, but the reigning champs are coming off of their first loss, a 110-89 setback at Minnesota on Wednesday.
Last season, the Nuggets were the NBA’s best team in games following a loss. Will they pick up where they left off? They are favored by a healthy margin to win for the 31st time in their last 35 regular season home games.
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Dallas Mavericks vs Denver Nuggets Odds
Odds are courtesy of Bovada.
Spread
- Dallas Mavericks +6.5 (-115)
- Denver Nuggets -6.5 (-105)
Over/Under
- Over 228.5 (-105)
- Under 228.5 (-115)
Moneyline
- Dallas Mavericks +205
- Denver Nuggets -245
Can the Mavericks Stay Perfect to Start the Season?
Last season, the Nuggets finished 34-7 at home in the regular season, posting the second-best road record in the NBA.
One of those seven losses came against the Mavericks, who won 116-115 at Ball Arena on December 6 last year, thanks to a late three by Dorian Finney-Smith.
Since that loss, the Nuggets are 40-5 at home. Following that loss to the Mavs, Denver went 28-4 at home to close out the regular season, followed by a 10-1 record in the postseason. Tonight, they will be going for their third straight home win to open the new season.
Based on what their success at home and in games following a loss, the Nuggets are likely to come away with the victory tonight.
Bet on the NBA This Season at BetDSI
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Since the start of last season, Denver is 46-8 SU (.852) and 32-21-1 ATS (.604) at home (regular season and postseason included). In that time period, they are first in the league in SU home win percentage and third in ATS home win percentage.
To put those numbers in further context, only five other teams have won 70% or more of their home games, and they are one of only four teams to cover in 60% or more of their home games.
To put a cherry on top of the success sundae, the Nuggets are 22-11 SU (.667, second in the NBA behind the Milwaukee Bucks) and 20-13 ATS (.606, third in the NBA behind the Sacramento Kings and Utah Jazz) in games following a loss.
In other words, the Mavericks are in a rather unfavorable position entering tonight’s contest.
Dallas Mavericks vs Denver Nuggets Prediction and Best Bets
Prediction: Nuggets to win
Best Bets: Nuggets -6.5 (-105 at Bovada) & Mavericks/Nuggets under 228.5 (-115 at Bovada)
As well as wins and covers, unders have been a regular sight at Ball Arena since the start of last season. The under is 31-22-1 in Denver’s home games since the start of last season, including 28-21-1 when the Nuggets have been favored.
Also, it is worth noting that since the start of last season, the under is 38-28-1 (.576) when Denver has played after having one day off, including 2-0 this season. In this time period, only the Brooklyn Nets (34-20-1, .630) have had a higher percentage of unders in that scenario.
Best Player Prop Bets for Mavericks vs Nuggets
Michael Porter Jr. Over 2.5 Made Three-Pointers (+125 at Bovada)
In Wednesday’s 110-89 loss to the Timberwolves, Porter had a rough game. He scored just five points in 25 minutes, and he missed all five of his three-point attempts as he went 2 of 11 from the field.
Don’t expect a recurrence of those struggles tonight. Last season, Porter missed all of his threes four times in the regular season. Each time, he responded by making three or more threes in the next game.
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Where to Bet on the NBA
Many of the top online sportsbooks offer a wide variety of NBA odds throughout the year.
In addition to being able to bet on 2024 NBA championship odds, you can make daily NBA picks on games all season long, including tonight’s Mavericks vs Spurs matchup in San Antonio.
Also, you can bet on the NBA All-Star Game and the major awards like NBA MVP, NBA Rookie of the Year, and more at most reputable sports betting sites.
There are numerous sports betting sites you can choose from that are good for NBA betting. Here are several books that we have reviewed and highly recommend:
If you don’t have an account at a book on this list, check out our reviews to help you determine if it is worth your interest and your betting funds.
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