Miami Heat vs Indiana Pacers Preview & Best Bets: Sabonis, Pacers Should Own Paint Against Shorthanded Heat

It is not one of the more notable matchups on tonight’s nine-game NBA schedule, but tonight’s game between the Miami Heat and Indiana Pacers features two teams that are currently in tough positions.

The Heat have had a strong start this season and are getting a lot of love as a potential Eastern Conference title contender. But they are currently without their two best players, and they make the trip to Indy after being dominated in two losses this week.

The Pacers, who are breaking in their third coach in three seasons, have not started well and could be poised to trade away some of their best assets. But they are playing hard and were unlucky not to win their last game. Could they turn the corner with a timely win or two?

Who will take the win tonight in Indy? And which bets should you be on for this one? Let’s break it all down below.

Miami Heat (13-9) vs Indiana Pacers (9-15), Bally Sports Sun, 7:00 p.m. ET

Miami Heat vs Indiana Pacers NBA Betting Odds

Spread

• Miami Heat +5.5 (-114)
• Indiana Pacers -5.5 (-106)

Total

• OVER 206.5 (-110)
• UNDER 206.5 (-110)

Moneyline

• Miami Heat +176
• Indiana Pacers -210

Miami Heat vs Indiana Pacers betting odds are via BetOnline Sportsbook as of Friday, December 3, 2021, at 2:30 p.m. ET. To compare NBA betting odds from several top online sportsbooks, check out our NBA odds.

Miami Heat vs Indiana Pacers NBA Betting Picks

Check out our Miami Heat-Indiana Pacers NBA betting picks, betting stats, and other Heat vs Pacers matchup info here:

Miami Heat vs Indiana Pacers Matchup: NBA Betting Picks, Odds, Stats & More

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Miami Heat vs Indiana Pacers Betting Preview

The Heat are a firm underdog against a struggling team due to the personnel they are currently lacking. In addition to Bam Adebayo (thumb) being out for the next several weeks, Jimmy Butler (tailbone) remains out. Butler will miss tonight’s game and tomorrow’s matchup with the Milwaukee Bucks. Without those two top talents, they lost by 26 at home Wednesday to the Cleveland Cavaliers.

The Pacers lost a heartbreaker against the Atlanta Hawks two nights ago, with a last-second no-call proving decisive. But Rick Carlisle’s first season has been a struggle overall, to say the least. The Pacers come into tonight’s game with three straight losses and only three wins in their last ten games.

Unfortunate Pacers Performing Solidly at Home Despite Overall Struggles

But the Pacers have had more success at home, posting a 6-5 record. They also average 110.6 points per game at home (104.7 points per game on the road). The Cavs, who aren’t exactly an offensive juggernaut, put up 111 on the Heat on Wednesday. The Heat struggled on both ends without their two most important players, and the forecast isn’t overly optimistic tonight.

When these teams met in Indianapolis on October 23, the Pacers picked up a 102-91 win in overtime. Both Adebayo and Butler played in that game, and their absence will be felt as it was against Cleveland. They are two of the team’s top three scorers, but their impact is also significant in other areas. Butler is second in the NBA in steals per game and had three in the first meeting with the Pacers. Meanwhile, Adebayo, who averages 10.2 rebounds per game, had a 16-rebound game against Indiana.

With Adebayo manning the middle this season, the Heat are fifth in the NBA in offensive rebounding percentage, third in defensive rebounding percentage, and second in points in the point allowed per game. But they were outrebounded 46-28 by the Cavs in Wednesday’s loss, and both Jarrett Allen and Evan Mobley registered double-doubles. Dwayne Dedmon did have a double-double against the Cavs, but he is not meant to be a high-impact starter.

Pacers Should Dominate Depleted Heat at Both Ends

The Pacers are in the top ten in the NBA in points in the paint per game, and they are also in the top half of the league in both offensive rebounding percentage (11th), defensive rebounding percentage (7th), and second-chance points (11th).

Though it didn’t get them a win, the Pacers had their fifth-best shooting percentage of the season against the Hawks and shot 60 percent on two-point shots against Atlanta. They had 52 points in the paint and held the Hawks, one of the league’s top teams at crashing the boards on the offensive end, to only seven offensive rebounds. Clint Capela, who had double-digit rebounds in 18 of his first 21 games and was coming off of a season-high 22 rebounds against the Knicks, had only nine against the Pacers.

In the first meeting with Miami, almost half of Indiana’s points (50) were points in the paint. And despite Adebayo’s big game, the Pacers had 14 offensive rebounds and outrebounded the Heat 55-50.

Miami Heat vs Indiana Pacers Best Bets

Indiana Pacers Team Total OVER 105.5

Indiana Pacers -5.5

With all of that in mind, look for the Pacers to take advantage of the shorthanded Heat and continue to be solid offensively at home. I like Indiana to take the W as well, and it is worth noting that all nine of their wins this season to date have also been covers. Look for that pattern to continue against the Heat, who will be all too eager for the return of Butler and then Adebayo.

Other NBA Betting Content for Friday, December 3, 2021

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