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NBA Finals 2023 Odds, Picks & Heat vs Nuggets Series Prediction
Written by: Eddie Griffin
Last Updated:
Read Time: 5 minutes
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Nikola Jokic may not have been named NBA MVP for a third straight season, but he is four wins away from capturing a prize that is superior to any personal accolades.
After avoiding the upsets that have littered this year’s playoffs, Jokic and the Denver Nuggets are set for a 2023 NBA Finals matchup with the Miami Heat, who have knocked off three higher seeds to reach the Finals.
While Miami is the first #8 seed to reach the NBA Finals since the New York Knicks in 1999, this isn’t an unfamiliar position for the Heat, who are in the Finals for the second time in four years and the seventh time in franchise history.
But this is uncharted territory for the Nuggets, who are finally within reach of an NBA championship after winning the Western Conference finals for the first time in five attempts.
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Which of these teams is our pick to capture the Larry O’Brien Trophy? Before we offer up our NBA Finals prediction and picks, let’s take a look at Heat vs Nuggets series odds.
2023 NBA Finals Odds
Odds to Win the NBA Finals
- Miami Heat +350
- Denver Nuggets -460
Series Total Games
- Four Games +420
- Five Games +185
- Six Games +250
- Seven Games +250
Series Spread
- Miami Heat +1.5 (+148)
- Denver Nuggets -1.5 (-184)
2023 NBA Finals Predictions and Picks
For all that can be said about the Heat nearly becoming the first team in NBA history to lose a playoff series after leading 3-0, they didn’t actually do it.
In fact, they couldn’t have been much more impressive in their Game 7 win in Boston. Sure, we’ll never know how the Celtics would have fared if Jayson Tatum was 100%. Instead, he injured his ankle in the first minute of the game and was not at his best after.
But after trailing early, Miami led for the final 39 and a half minutes, and when Boston tried to make a game of it late in the third quarter, the Heat responded by turning a seven-point lead into an 18-point lead in the span of just over four minutes of game time.
Just when it looked like their NBA Finals dreams might be getting away from them, they resoundingly shut the door on the Celtics.
It was yet another impressive result for the Heat in a postseason full of them. They handled the #1 Bucks with and without Giannis Antetokounmpo, eliminated the #5 New York Knicks with relative ease, and beat the #2 Celtics three times in Boston.
But this, this profiles as a much different test for the Heat.
As good as Miami has been, Denver enters the NBA Finals as a heavy favorite not just because of the seeding disparity.
Nikola Jokic has been a monster in the playoffs, averaging 29.9 PPG, 13.3 RPG, and 10.3 APG. He has already broken the record for most triple-doubles in a postseason, with the NBA Finals yet to come. He has had a 53-point game, a 43-point game, and triple-doubles with totals of 30 points, 17 rebounds, and 17 assists and 34 points, 21 rebounds, and 14 assists.
But the reason that the Nuggets are in the Finals and not lamenting another unsuccessful postseason is because Jokic isn’t the only one taking on a starring role for Denver.
The last time he played in the postseason, Jamal Murray helped the Nuggets reach the Western Conference finals for the first time in over a decade.
Now, after missing the previous two postseasons, he has made the most of this opportunity, hitting the 30-point mark seven times on the way to averaging 27.7 PPG, 5.5 RPG, and 6.1 APG in the first three rounds.
And it’s not just the Jokic and Murray show, either, as the Nuggets have four other players scoring in double figures in the playoffs.
The Heat have been able to thrive to this point thanks in part to minimizing how much star players have been able to take the game away from them. That is going to be much harder against the Nuggets, which was evident in how they swept aside the Lakers when the Lakers had reached the Western Conference finals in a similar fashion.
I think the Heat are a little too plucky to fall in a sweep, but I like Denver’s chances of being able to cap off their first-ever trip to the NBA Finals by celebrating their first-ever NBA championship at home.
2023 NBA Finals Prediction: Nuggets to win
2023 NBA Finals Pick: Nuggets to win the series 4-1 (Series Total Games: Five Games)
Where to Bet on the 2023 NBA Finals
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