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2024 NBA MVP Odds & Picks: Why Tatum is your New King
Written by: Varun Sharma
Last Updated:
Read Time: 5 minutes
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Alright, alright before you get too bent out of shape, the title was meant to get you in the door. Now that I’ve got you in here, let’s talk about the current MVP race in the NBA.
We’re in the midst of the NBA’s All-Star break so I know that no one is thinking about the NBA, but humour me and read this with an open mind, let’s take a shot and have some fun here.
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N. Jokic to win MVP (-145) via Bovada
Nikola Jokic is the current betting favourite to win the NBA’s Most Valuable Player Award averaging 26.1 points 12 rebounds and 8.9 assists per game this season. Jokic has also played in 53 of the team’s 55 games.
The Nuggets currently sit fourth in the Western Conference and third place in their division; behind the Thunder and the Timberwolves.
This article isn’t for me to tell you to go bet Nikola Jokic at (-145), nor is it for me to say he’s not going to win the award. Jokic has won two of the last three MVPs and he’s coming off a year where he finished 2nd in MVP voting.
He’s scoring more this season, rebounding slightly more, and turning the ball over way less than he did last season. He’s been fantastic and is still arguably the best player in the NBA.
Like I said, I’m not here to tell you to bet Jokic, we’re here to talk value.
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J. Tatum to win MVP (+3000) via Bovada
So let’s get my little spiel about Jayson Tatum being the MVP out of the way. If you’re following me on ‘X’, you got this line (+3000) two days ago; it’s since dropped to (+2000) in some spots and JT hasn’t played a game in over a week. Never forget to shop for the best line.
This isn’t me trying to convince you of how good Tatum is, but he is averaging 27.1 points 8.6 rebounds and 4.8 assists per game, and he’s doing it on the #1 team in the league.
The Celtics are 43-13 this season, with Tatum playing in 52 of the Celtics’ 56 games. JT’s playing 36 minutes per game and shooting 47.5% from the field; the best he’s shot since his his rookie season, when he was taking just 10.4 shots per game.
Tatum currently ranks sixth in defensive win shares, and is the only MVP Candidate currently within the top 10. He’s shown repeatedly that he plays both sides of the ball, and he does it flawlessly.
He’s currently sitting 3rd in the league in +/- (+8) and the Celtics have won 41 of the 52 games Tatum has played in.
Now outside of Tatum’s stats, the narrative of ‘best player on the best team’ will always carry weight when it comes to voting for the MVP. JT currently leads the Celtics in points, rebounds, and assists per game.
He is, without a doubt, the best player on the best team.
The conversation around Tatum has already picked up, with multiple media heads already saying that Tatum would be their current vote for MVP. Media attention matters, a lot of this award is recency bias, and what have you done recently.
Tatum has played 74 and 76 games in back to back seasons, and is currently projected to play the same number this year. His shooting volume and points per game have taken a dip this season, but that was to be expected with the addition of Kristaps Porzingis.
Despite playing with two new starters, three if you count Derrick White; he’s shooting 47.5% (career best) and ranks in the top 20 of 3-point percentage, among players taking six or more attempts per game.
The Celtics currently have five more wins than the 1st seed in the West, and they sit seven games ahead of the 2nd place team in the East, the Cavaliers.
There is currently a six and half game difference between the 2nd place Cavs and the 8th seeded Heat, for perspective.
Last season, we saw Tatum averaging 31.4 points per game in the month of March, and 32.8 in March the year prior. This is the time of year he turns it up, so let’s jump in on a little value here while we can.
J. Tatum to win MVP (+3000) via Bovada
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L. Doncic to win MVP (+900) via Bovada
The things that Luka does every night, on an NBA court, are nothing short of MAGIC. That’s why he’s got the best nickname in the game, Luka Magic.
Doncic is averaging 34.2 points 8.8 rebounds, and 9.5 assists per game this season, and has the Mavericks positioned 7th in the West. Oh, and he scored 73 points against the Hawks just a few weeks ago.
If Luka and the Mavericks can string some wins together, maybe position themselves with homecourt for the playoffs; I could see Luka entering the conversation with a serious claim to the award.
Averaging a near 35 point-triple double, securing home court for his team, and just having one of the most insane individual seasons we’ve ever witnessed. Luka Magic just might do it.
L. Doncic to win MVP (+900) via Bovada
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